Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox - August 22, 2025

The Minnesota Twins will beat the Chicago White Sox. The Chicago White Sox will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I like Minnesota to edge this because the baseline run environment favors their lineup. The Twins average 4.2 runs on 7.9 hits with a 0.2 batting average, which tops Chicago’s 3.9 runs on 7.7 hits and a 0.2 average. On the mound the profiles are essentially even, with both clubs sitting at a 4.3 ERA. When pitching is a wash, I default to the team generating more contact and slightly more run production, and that points to Minnesota. The gap is not massive, but it is consistent across runs and hits, which lifts the Twins’ win expectancy enough to make them the side.

I expect Chicago to keep it tight and cover. With ERAs matching and the offensive difference measured rather than dramatic, the most likely scripts cluster around a one run margin. Traffic should be steady. The combined hit rate sits at 15.6 per game, and the teams’ scoring averages sum to 8.1 runs. My total projection lands at 8.2, and with league level run distribution skew, that leans to the over more often than not. The modest offensive edge for Minnesota creates the separator late, while Chicago’s comparable run prevention keeps the spread within reach. I see a 5 to 4 or 6 to 5 type finish, Minnesota on top, Chicago inside the number, and the total clearing.