Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays - August 25, 2025

The Toronto Blue Jays will beat the Minnesota Twins. The Minnesota Twins will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I back Toronto on the moneyline because their run creation profile is stronger. They average 4.9 runs on 9.1 hits with a 0.3 batting average, outpacing Minnesota’s 4.2 runs on 8.0 hits and a 0.2 average. That 0.7 run gap per game, paired with the extra hit per night, signals a more reliable ability to sustain innings and convert traffic. On the run prevention side, both clubs sit at 4.3 ERA, so neither staff owns a decisive edge. With pitching essentially even, the more efficient offense becomes the tiebreaker, and that points to Toronto.

The total projects over because the combined baseline of 4.9 and 4.2 yields about 9.1 expected runs, and the matching 4.3 ERAs suggest a neutral environment where contact translates into scoring. Toronto’s higher hit volume should create constant pressure, while Minnesota’s offense is capable of answering enough to keep pace. With run prevention even, I expect a tight game state that suppresses the margin more than the scoring. That supports Minnesota to cover the spread while still losing outright. I project 9.5 to 10.0 total runs, with the most likely script a one-run Toronto win, something like 5-4 or 6-5.