AS Monaco @ LOSC Lille - August 24, 2025

The AS Monaco will beat the LOSC Lille. The total will go over.

I favor Monaco because their attacking profile is simply heavier. They average 1.9 goals to Lille’s 1.5, with a shot edge of 14.5 to 12.5 and a shots-on-target gap of 5.3 to 4.5. Even with a lower passing rate of 80.9 percent versus Lille’s 84.5 percent, Monaco’s direct approach creates more pressure and more finishing opportunities. Lille’s cleaner buildup has not translated into the same chance volume, and in a match that tilts toward shot count, Monaco’s extra 2.0 attempts and 0.8 on target are meaningful. If Monaco score first, Lille’s average output suggests a chase that still may not match the hosts’ pace.

The over is supported by both teams’ scoring baselines and shot maps. Their combined average is 3.4 goals, with 9.8 shots on target per match, a profile that typically produces multiple conversions. Monaco’s 13.6 fouls and Lille’s 12.1 point to frequent set pieces, which raise goal variance and offer avenues for both sides to find a breakthrough. Monaco’s slightly sloppier passing invites transitions, while Lille’s 84.5 percent accuracy sustains possession phases that generate secondary chances. Put together, I expect both teams to score, with Monaco’s higher volume deciding the margin. My projection leans toward a multi-goal game, something in the 2-1 or 3-1 range, with Monaco’s superior chance creation carrying them over the line.