Manchester United @ Fulham - August 24, 2025

The Manchester United will beat the Fulham. The total will go under.

I price Manchester United as the side with the marginal edges that matter. Shot volume is essentially a wash, 13.8 to 13.7, and on target looks match at 4.4. The difference shows up in possession proxies and discipline. With an 82.0 passing rate to 81.6, and fewer fouls, 10.6 to 11.3, United are more likely to control tempo and limit dangerous restarts. That tends to reduce variance and favors the team better at sustaining pressure. Even though Fulham’s average scoring rate sits at 1.4 versus 1.2, the combination of ball security, foul avoidance, and a slight volume edge pushes the probability of a one goal United result higher than market intuition.

The total profiles as an under. Combined baseline production is modest, about 2.6 goals if both meet average conversion near 0.3 per shot on target, but game state and style pull that down. United’s preference for keeping the ball and avoiding fouls typically suppresses chance volume, trimming on target attempts below the 8.8 average. I project closer to 8.0 on target efforts, which at a 0.3 finish rate lands near 2.4 goals. With both sides clustered around 4.4 on target attempts and little evidence of outsized finishing, the modal outcome is a controlled, low variance match that stays under, with United creating the cleaner looks and protecting a narrow lead.