Nottingham Forest @ Crystal Palace - August 24, 2025

The Nottingham Forest will beat the Crystal Palace. The total will go under.

I expect Forest to control chance quality and edge the scoreline. They average 1.5 goals on 12.1 shots and 4.3 on target, while Palace sit at 1.3 goals on 13.5 shots and 4.6 on target. Despite taking fewer attempts, Forest are more efficient. Their shot conversion is 12.4 percent versus 9.6 percent for Palace, and their on-target rate is 35.5 percent versus 34.1 percent. Both sides complete passes at 74.5 percent, so neither profile suggests extended dominance in possession. In a balanced midfield, the team that turns limited touches into better looks usually wins, and Forest have done that more often. With fouls at 10.6 for Forest and 11.0 for Palace, the game projects to be stop-start, which tilts value toward efficiency over volume.

The total trends under because sustained pressure should be scarce. With each side producing roughly 4 to 5 shots on target, the combined median lands near 8.9. At about 0.3 goals per shot on target, the central expectation is roughly 2.7 goals. Layer in the 74.5 percent passing on both sides and around 11.0 fouls per match, and the tempo skews slower with fewer clean sequences into the box, especially late. I project a compact match where Forest’s finishing edge decides it by a single goal, and the total stays under the number more often than not.