New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves - August 22, 2025

The Atlanta Braves will beat the New York Mets. The Atlanta Braves will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I make Atlanta the right side despite surface splits that lean slightly toward New York. Atlanta produces 8.4 hits per game against 8.2 for New York with the same 0.2 batting average. Yet Atlanta converts those hits into only 4.4 runs while New York turns fewer hits into 4.5 runs. That is a gap in sequencing, not skill. New York’s 0.6 runs per hit sits at the high end over time, while Atlanta’s 0.5 is modest for this much contact. Given comparable batting averages, the extra base traffic favors Atlanta, and regression points to their run rate ticking up while New York’s efficiency cools. Atlanta’s staff sits at 4.4 ERA against 3.9 for New York, but the hit volume edge and expected run conversion normalize that difference. My projection lifts Atlanta toward the mid 4s and holds New York closer to the low 4s, creating a multi run path.

With offenses combining for roughly 9.0 runs on baseline and ERAs averaging 4.2, the matchup profiles as run robust. Extra balls in play from Atlanta’s 8.4 hits pace, plus New York’s ability to reach 4.5 even on 8.2 hits, support innings with traffic on both sides. I expect Atlanta to break the sequencing slump, push past 5.0, and separate late, which clears a typical spread and drives the total over.