New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies - June 21, 2025

As I gear up for the showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park, it’s hard not to be excited about the current momentum. The Phillies are riding a three-game winning streak and looking to extend it against a struggling Mets team that has lost seven straight games.

Let’s dive into the numbers. On the mound for the Mets will be Griffin Canning, who boasts a 6-3 record with a 3.1 ERA and an impressive strikeout rate of 8.7 per game. However, his recent form doesn’t inspire confidence; after all, he’s part of a team that is currently floundering in both performance and morale.

On the other side, we have Mick Abel taking the hill for Philadelphia. His 2-0 record with a stellar 3.9 ERA indicates he’s been effective when called upon this season, and he brings an even more enticing strikeout rate of just over 9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. This could be crucial as he faces off against a Mets lineup that has struggled to find its rhythm lately.

When we look at batting stats, Philadelphia edges out New York in several key areas: they average nearly 4.7 runs per game compared to New York’s 4.5 runs, while also leading in hits (8.7 vs. 8.2) and RBIs (4.5 vs. 4.4). The Phillies also enjoy a higher batting average of .250 versus the Mets’ .241.

The trends tell an interesting story as well—Philadelphia is currently on fire at home with an impressive record of 8 wins in their last 9 games overall and covering spreads effectively (4-1 ATS at home). Meanwhile, New York is struggling not only to win but also to cover spreads (1-7 ATS in their last eight games), which paints them as vulnerable heading into this matchup.

Oddsmakers opened this game with Philadelphia as slight favorites (-111), but given their recent performances against New York—including that decisive previous victory where they won by an overwhelming score of 10-2—I expect this line may shift further towards Philly as game time approaches.

As for total runs? With both teams’ offensive capabilities combined with their recent scoring trends—the total opened at 9.5—it seems likely we’ll see another high-scoring affair tonight like last time when they combined for twelve runs.

In summary, I predict that the Phillies will secure another victory over the Mets while pushing past that total once again—expect fireworks! The data strongly supports these assertions; let’s see if they play out on Saturday night!