New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates - June 28, 2025

As I look ahead to the matchup between the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, I can’t help but recall how crucial pitching matchups are in determining outcomes. In this case, the stage is set for an intriguing contest as Paul Blackburn takes the mound for the Mets against Bailey Falter of the Pirates.

Blackburn has struggled this season, holding a 0-2 record with a notably high ERA of 6.3. His strikeout rate suggests he’s capable of making hitters miss—over 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings—but he has yet to find his footing in games that count. It reminds me of those early days when young pitchers battle through adversity on their journey to stardom; consistency and command are key.

On the other hand, Falter comes in with a solid record of 6-3 and a more respectable ERA hovering around 4.0. His ability to limit damage while keeping his team competitive stands out; he averages about 7.4 strikeouts per game himself—a sign that he’s adept at navigating tough spots. If Falter can establish his fastball early and mix in off-speed pitches effectively, we might see him give the Mets lineup fits throughout the afternoon.

Now let’s consider what each team brings offensively. The Mets boast a lineup that scores an average of approximately 4.4 runs per game, which speaks volumes about their potential to capitalize on any mistakes made by opposing pitchers. They also hit nearly .240 as a team—while it doesn’t scream dominance, it indicates they have some pop ready to explode at any moment.

Conversely, Pittsburgh’s offense has been relatively muted with just over 3 runs scored per game and a low batting average of .224—the struggles there are palpable. Yet they’ve shown flashes of life recently, racking up four wins against two losses across their last six games while averaging over five runs during that stretch.

Looking back at their previous encounter where Pittsburgh steamrolled New York in a decisive victory (9-1), one must wonder if this will be another ‘trap’ game for the struggling Mets or if they can regroup and take control against Falter.

Given these dynamics—the advantage lies with the Mets due to both their offensive output and historical data pointing towards them being -145 moneyline favorites—they seem poised for redemption after such a lopsided loss last time out.

However, do not underestimate what momentum does for teams like Pittsburgh who are trying to claw back into relevance; they have found ways to score recently even if inconsistently overall this season.

Therefore, my prediction leans toward the Mets securing victory today alongside an expectation that we’ll see an OVER result on total runs scored as both offenses may exploit opportunities presented by each pitcher’s weaknesses on any given day—especially considering how many combined runs were generated in their last meeting!

Coaching taught me never to underestimate how quickly teams can change narratives; today could be one of those pivotal moments if New York seizes it correctly!