New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals - May 3, 2025

Ah, the thrill of game day! As a seasoned bettor, I can feel the electricity in the air. The New York Mets are rolling into Busch Stadium to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, and I’m ready to dive deep into what we can expect from this matchup.

The Mets have been pretty hot lately, boasting a solid 22-11 record. They’re 4-1 against the spread in their last five games, which tells me they’ve been covering those lines quite comfortably. Tylor Megill takes the mound with an impressive 3-2 record and a stellar ERA of 1.7—now that’s a pitcher you want to back! His strikeout rate is eye-popping at nearly 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings, which means he’s capable of keeping hitters quiet.

On the flip side, we have Erick Fedde for St. Louis who struggles with consistency—his record sits at 1-3 with an ERA nudging up towards 4.3. While he’s got decent strikeout numbers as well, his ability to keep runs off the board has been shaky at best this season. The Cardinals come into this game after a rough outing against these very same Mets where they were trounced in a 9-3 decision last week.

Now let’s talk about offense. The Mets average about 4.8 runs per game while maintaining a .240 batting average; not breathtaking but effective enough given their pitching dominance recently. The Cardinals are slightly behind with an average of around 4.7 runs per game and hitting .257 as a team—they may not be blowing anyone away but they do have some pop in their lineup.

Given these stats, I see value in betting on the Mets as -147 favorites—the oddsmakers might be underestimating just how good Megill has been this season compared to Fedde’s struggles on the mound recently.

And here comes my favorite part: predicting how many runs will be scored! With both teams having shown offensive capabilities and considering their previous meeting resulted in double-digit scoring (12 total runs), I’d say we should lean towards taking the OVER at 8.5 total runs for this game as well.

In conclusion: I’m leaning toward backing New York with that moneyline despite it being slightly steep because they’ve shown resilience and grit lately—plus Megill’s form can’t be ignored! For those looking for more thrills tonight? Placing your chips on OVER seems like wise choice too; expect some fireworks out there tonight!

Buckle up folks; it’s going to be fun watching these two teams battle it out!