Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets - August 27, 2025

The New York Mets will beat the Philadelphia Phillies. The Philadelphia Phillies will cover the spread, and the total will go under.

While the Phillies have the edge in overall scoring and batting average, the Mets’ pitching may very well dictate the outcome. With a team ERA of 3.9, the Mets are positioned to limit the Phillies’ offensive output effectively. The Phillies may score an average of 4.7 runs per game, but the Mets’ hurlers can mitigate this, especially given the inconsistency displayed by the opposition’s lineup throughout the season. The gap in batting averages is razor-thin, with both teams showcasing a commendable ability to get on base, but this game may swing on the performance of the home team’s pitchers.

Moreover, the Mets’ run production of 4.6 runs per game combined with a strong defensive performance sets a solid foundation for a close game. Statistically, with both teams hovering right around 8.2 to 8.7 hits per game, it’s likely that the total hits may not translate to runs — tending to support an under outcome. Expect this contest to be competitive yet low-scoring, as the match-up favors solid pitching over explosive batting. Therefore, my analysis suggests the Mets will secure a victory, but it will likely be of the narrow variety, maintaining the total under the projected outcome.