Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals - August 25, 2025

The St. Louis Cardinals will beat the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pittsburgh Pirates will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project a narrow Cardinals win driven by the cleaner offensive profile. St. Louis averages 4.4 runs on 8.4 hits, outpacing Pittsburgh’s 3.6 runs on 7.7 hits. That 0.8 run gap is meaningful over nine innings, even with the Pirates holding a slight run prevention edge at 4.1 ERA versus 4.4. The Cardinals generate steadier traffic and have a better chance to convert that traffic into runs. Given the Pirates’ pitching advantage is modest, I expect the Cardinals to win by a single run more often than not, which lines up with Pittsburgh covering the standard runline.

For the total, the baseline scoring profiles point upward. The combined average sits at 8.0 runs, and these offenses produce about 16.1 hits per game together, enough volume to push innings past the threshold with normal sequencing. Both staffs sit above 4.0 ERA, which supports multi-run frames on either side rather than a one-sided shutdown. Divisional familiarity tends to reduce surprise factor, and with contact rates like these, a couple of timely extra-base hits or a leveraged bullpen spot can tilt the scoreboard over. I expect a competitive game script, Cardinals edging late, Pirates inside the number, and enough cumulative traffic to clear the total.