RB Leipzig @ FC Bayern Munich - August 22, 2025

The FC Bayern Munich will beat the RB Leipzig. The total will go over.

I expect this to tilt Bayern’s way because their attacking volume and precision are on another tier. They average 2.8 goals on 18.6 shots with 7.4 on target, supported by 88.0 percent passing. That combination points to sustained territorial control and frequent high-quality looks. Leipzig produce 1.6 goals on 11.9 shots with 4.2 on target and pass at 80.1 percent, solid but not enough to match Bayern’s pressure over 90 minutes. The discipline gap matters too. Bayern commit 8.6 fouls, Leipzig commit 11.1, which tilts set piece volume and dangerous restarts toward the favorite. With Bayern’s on target rate around 39.8 percent and a clear possession edge, the probability they build a multi-goal cushion is strong.

The over projects cleanly from the team profiles. Their combined scoring average sits at 4.4 goals, and the on target sum of 11.6 indicates sustained keeper involvement. Leipzig’s attack is efficient enough to land a punch even under pressure, and their higher foul count invites Bayern into premium dead-ball situations that inflate totals. I project a match state where Bayern lead and continue to create, while Leipzig chase and generate transition chances. A likely range sits around 3.8 to 4.6 combined goals, with a plausible score line of 3-1 or 3-2. The favorite’s superiority in shot volume and pass completion, plus elevated set piece opportunities, supports both the side and the over.