RC Lens @ Le Havre AC - August 24, 2025

The RC Lens will beat the Le Havre AC. The total will go over.

I project Lens to control this match. Their passing accuracy sits at 79.6 percent, a 10.3 point edge over Le Havre’s 69.3 percent, which signals cleaner progression and more sustained possession. Lens produced 18 shots to Le Havre’s 9, exactly 2.0 times the volume, and still matched them with 4 shots on target. The 0 goals from that output looks like finishing variance rather than structural failure. With a 22.2 percent on target rate and steady chance creation, the probability of conversion rebounds as the sample grows. Le Havre’s 14 fouls versus Lens’s 13 also points to a reactive defensive posture that should gift Lens restarts in dangerous areas.

For the total, I expect both sides to contribute. Le Havre turned 44.4 percent of their attempts into shots on target and converted 11.1 percent of total shots, an efficient profile for a side that will likely be out-possessed. That efficiency, plus their willingness to foul, creates a game state with more set pieces and transition looks. Lens’s superior circulation should keep pressure high, and if they reproduce anything close to 18 attempts, they are far more likely to find multiple goals. I rate Lens to win on volume and control, with Le Havre still carrying enough direct threat to get on the board. The combination points to a Lens victory and a total that clears the number.