Angers SCO @ Paris Saint-Germain - August 22, 2025

The Paris Saint-Germain will beat the Angers SCO. The total will go over.

I project a clear edge for the hosts based on volume and efficiency. Paris Saint-Germain averages 2.7 goals on 18.5 shots with 8.0 on target, supported by an 89.6 percent passing rate that sustains long possessions and repeat entries. Angers SCO sits at 0.9 goals on 9.2 shots with 2.7 on target and a 78.1 percent completion rate, a profile that struggles to progress the ball or create second chances. The discipline gap matters too. Paris Saint-Germain commits 9.0 fouls to Angers SCO at 11.2, which reduces cheap set pieces conceded while keeping their attack on the front foot.

The total projects over on base rates alone. The combined scoring averages reach 3.6 goals, which clears a standard total. Shot quality separation is significant. Paris Saint-Germain turns 43.2 percent of attempts into shots on target, while Angers SCO sits at 29.3 percent, and the raw shot gap of 18.5 versus 9.2 suggests sustained pressure and multiple scoring windows. With 8.0 shots on target per match, Paris Saint-Germain profiles for two to three goals without needing unsustainable finishing. Angers SCO’s 2.7 shots on target provide a path to a consolation goal, especially via set pieces from their higher foul rate, which further nudges the total upward. My model favors a comfortable home win with a score line that pushes past the number.