San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners - August 25, 2025

The Seattle Mariners will beat the San Diego Padres. The San Diego Padres will cover the spread, and the total will go under.

I expect Seattle to edge this because their run creation profile is slightly stronger. They average 4.5 runs on 8.2 hits, while San Diego sits at 4.2 runs on 8.4 hits. Scoring more with fewer knocks implies better conversion of contact into runs, whether via extra-base damage or timely sequencing. That efficiency offsets San Diego’s superior run prevention, where the Padres’ 3.6 ERA outperforms Seattle’s 4.1. When I balance those components, Seattle’s offense grades a notch higher than San Diego’s offense relative to the opposing staffs, producing a narrow but persistent win probability advantage.

The same inputs support a low total and a tight margin. With San Diego suppressing runs effectively and both offenses in the middle band, run expectancy compresses. The Padres’ contact volume of 8.4 hits per game should keep traffic on the bases, but their conversion rate lags Seattle’s, which caps ceiling outcomes. I project a game that clusters around 7 runs, with Seattle’s incremental edge showing late, enough to win but not to clear a typical spread. In short, run prevention keeps this under, Seattle’s small efficiency gap drives the result, and the Padres’ better baseline pitching keeps it within a run.