Seattle Mariners @ Chicago Cubs - June 22, 2025

As a seasoned bettor, I’ve seen the ebbs and flows of teams throughout the season, but as we look towards today’s clash between the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, I can’t shake off that feeling in my gut. This is a game where I see value and a solid play on the horizon.

First off, let’s break down what we’re working with here. The Mariners are sending Logan Gilbert to the mound. With a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 2.6, he certainly has shown flashes of brilliance this season – particularly with his strikeout rate hovering around 8.2 per nine innings. However, when you dig deeper into his numbers and combine them with Seattle’s recent form—where they’ve stumbled to a dismal 1-9 ATS in their last ten road games—you start to feel uneasy about betting on them.

On the flip side, we have the Cubs’ Colin Rea, who has been more effective this season with a record of 4-2 and an ERA right around 3.6. He has also demonstrated decent control with around 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings—nothing to sneeze at by any means. What stands out for me is how Chicago has been able to put runs on the board consistently, averaging over 5.4 runs per game this season while maintaining a respectable .247 batting average.

Last time these two teams met, it was quite an eventful one—ending in a wild 10-7 victory for the Cubs that had bettors cheering for both sides depending on which way they leaned for totals bets (17 combined runs!). It’s clear that both offenses can score if given opportunities; however, today feels different.

I expect today’s matchup to be less about fireworks and more about pitching dominance from Rea against a struggling Mariners lineup that’s only managing to scrape together just over four runs per game this season with an underwhelming .235 batting average overall. Plus, let’s not forget the pressure cooker atmosphere at Wrigley Field; it tends to tighten up hitters’ swings.

For those keeping track at home: Seattle comes into this game holding onto a shaky record of 38-37 SU while struggling significantly on the road recently (1-4 SU in their last five). Meanwhile, Chicago sits pretty at 46-30 SU amidst their own ups and downs but still manages to hold strong as contenders.

When considering all these factors—the pitching matchups, recent performances including Seattle’s woeful ATS record away from home—the smart play here leans towards Chicago taking another win against Seattle tonight. And don’t forget about those totals: I’m predicting we’ll fall under that hefty total of 11.5 runs as both pitchers settle in early.

So there you have it! A calculated risk based on hard data mixed with years of experience tells me this bet should yield some sweet returns if luck stays on our side tonight!