San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers - August 22, 2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will beat the San Francisco Giants. The San Francisco Giants will cover the spread, and the total will go under.

I project Milwaukee to control this game because its offense is materially stronger. The Brewers average 5.1 runs on 8.8 hits with a 0.3 batting average, which outpaces San Francisco’s 4.0 runs on 7.7 hits with a 0.2 average. That gap in run creation matters against comparable run prevention. Both staffs sit at 3.7 ERA, so the differential comes from the lineup that creates more traffic and converts better. Milwaukee’s profile points to steadier sequencing and a higher likelihood of a multi-run inning, which tilts the win probability in its favor.

Despite that edge, I expect a tight margin. With both teams clustered around a 3.7 ERA, run prevention should be stable on both sides, keeping this within a single swing late. San Francisco’s staff is good enough to hold Milwaukee near 4 to 5 runs, and Milwaukee’s staff is positioned to cap San Francisco around 3 to 4, which supports a one-run result and a cover for the Giants. The total trends under because the combination of near-equal pitching and San Francisco’s lighter contact profile limits sustained rallies. My projection lands in a controlled pocket, something like 4-3 or 4-2 Milwaukee, matching a Brewers win, a Giants cover, and an under.