Stade Brestois 29 @ Toulouse FC - August 24, 2025

The Toulouse FC will beat the Stade Brestois 29. The total will go over.

I project a narrow edge for Toulouse grounded in shot quality and possession. While Brest averages 1.5 goals per match, the shot profile is nearly identical. Toulouse produces 4.3 shots on target from 11.7 attempts, Brest creates 4.4 from 12.0. That gives Toulouse a slightly higher on target share with fewer attempts, a marker of better shot selection. Passing is essentially level at 78.1 percent versus 78.4 percent, so control should be shared. In a balanced possession game, I side with the team turning similar volume into cleaner looks.

The total trends over based on volume and game state. Combined scoring averages sit at 2.8 goals, and both attacks place more than 4.0 shots on frame per match, a profile that typically clears a standard total. Discipline should add chances rather than remove them. Toulouse commits 13.0 fouls and Brest 12.6, creating steady set piece volume and quick restarts. With both sides around 78.0 percent passing, turnovers are limited and possessions reach the final third. That mix, plus Toulouse’s slight efficiency edge, supports a two to one type result with late chances still live for more. My model tilts to Toulouse and an over.