St. Louis Cardinals @ Cleveland Guardians - June 28, 2025

As I prepare to analyze the upcoming matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field, a few key statistics stand out that will shape our expectations for this game.

First off, let’s take a look at the starting pitchers. The Cardinals are sending Miles Mikolas to the mound, who holds a record of 4-5 with an ERA of 4.1. While his strikeout rate is decent at about 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings, he has been prone to giving up runs in critical situations. On the other side, we have Slade Cecconi representing the Guardians with a slightly better record of 3-3 and an ERA of approximately 3.9. His strikeout rate is higher than Mikolas’s at around 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings, which indicates he may be more effective in limiting damage when faced with pressure.

When we shift our focus to team performance, we see that St. Louis has been scoring more effectively this season compared to Cleveland—averaging nearly 4.7 runs per game against Cleveland’s modest average of about 3.8 runs per game. However, it’s important to note that while St. Louis boasts a batting average of .249 and an on-base percentage slugging percentage (OBP) over .700, their recent form has shown some vulnerability; they’ve gone under in four out of their last six games.

Cleveland’s offense has struggled significantly this season as evidenced by their low batting average of just .226 and OBP below .300; however, they have shown flashes of potential in recent matchups despite being unable to translate that into consistent success on paper.

Looking back at recent meetings between these two teams provides further context for our predictions today: St. Louis recently shut out Cleveland twice in succession (5-0), indicating not only strong pitching but also offensive capability during those games.

Interestingly enough, oddsmakers opened this contest with St. Louis as slight favorites (-103). Given both teams’ trends—particularly Cleveland’s struggles against the spread (1-4 ATS in their last five home games)—the odds seem somewhat generous towards them considering how they’ve performed lately.

However, I predict that tonight might be different for the Guardians as they seek redemption after consecutive losses against these same Cardinals—a common narrative in baseball where teams often rally after tough stretches.

With all factors considered—including pitching matchups and recent performances—I expect Cleveland will break through offensively tonight while also benefiting from home-field advantage against a Cardinal team that might not be able to maintain its earlier dominance given their own inconsistencies lately.

In terms of total runs scored for this matchup? I believe we’re likely headed toward an “over” scenario based on both teams’ current trajectories combined with my expectation for aggressive play from both sides looking to capitalize on any opportunities presented throughout the game.

So there you have it: I’m predicting a close battle where Cleveland emerges victorious while surpassing the game’s total set at 8.5 runs! Let’s see if my analysis holds true come game time!