St. Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays - August 22, 2025

The Tampa Bay Rays will beat the St. Louis Cardinals. The St. Louis Cardinals will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project a narrow Rays win. Both offenses are essentially equal, with Tampa Bay at 4.4 runs and 8.5 hits per game, and St. Louis at 4.4 runs and 8.4 hits. Batting averages sit around 24.3 percent and 24.4 percent, so contact quality is a wash. The separation comes on the mound. Tampa Bay’s staff carries a 4.0 ERA versus 4.3, a 0.3 run edge that tilts a tight matchup. Run creation and hit rates are effectively a stalemate, so prevention becomes the swing factor.

On the total, combined scoring projects at 8.8 runs. With average offenses and neither staff suppressing contact at an elite rate, I expect this to land in the 9.0 to 10.0 range. That sets up the over. As for the spread, St. Louis should keep it within a run. Hit volume is nearly identical, and the prevention gap is modest. That profile points to a one run decision more often than a multi run separation. My projection is Tampa Bay by 1.0, with enough traffic to clear the total.