St. Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays - August 24, 2025

The Tampa Bay Rays will beat the St. Louis Cardinals. The St. Louis Cardinals will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project a narrow Tampa Bay win driven by a slight run prevention edge. The Rays carry a 4.0 staff ERA against 4.3 for the Cardinals, and that small gap matters with offenses that are essentially mirrors. Both clubs average 4.4 runs on 8.4 hits with a batting average around 0.2, so contact volume and baseline production are nearly identical. In a game where sequencing becomes the tiebreaker, the team with the steadier run prevention profile earns a fractional tilt. My numbers place Tampa Bay as a small favorite in a one-run window.

That near-parity on contact supports a tight spread outcome, which is why I expect St. Louis to cover. With two lineups creating similar traffic and neither staff suppressing runs below league norms, late leverage should keep this within a single score. For the total, the combined scoring baseline sits at 8.8 runs, and the aggregate staff ERA totals 8.3. Given typical variance from bullpen usage and situational hitting, I expect realized scoring to push into the low to mid 9s. The Rays’ marginal edge on the mound supports the win, the Cardinals’ matching offensive tempo supports the cover, and the steady drumbeat of base runners from both sides points this toward the over.