Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox - June 11, 2025

As the fans settle into their seats at Fenway Park for Wednesday’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox, there’s a palpable sense of anticipation in the air. With Zack Littell taking the mound for Tampa Bay and Walker Buehler starting for Boston, we have an intriguing pitching duel ahead.

Littell comes into this game with a 6-5 record and a respectable 3.5 ERA, showcasing his ability to keep runs off the board effectively. His strikeout rate of 7.8 batters per nine innings indicates that he can miss bats when needed, which will be crucial against a Boston lineup that has shown they can score runs in bunches. However, it’s worth noting that Littell has struggled recently, with Tampa Bay going just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games.

On the other hand, Buehler has had his ups and downs this season with a record of 4-4 and an ERA hovering around 4.2. His strikeout rate is slightly higher than Littell’s at about 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings, suggesting he also has swing-and-miss capability but may not have been as consistent overall this year. The Red Sox offense is averaging nearly 5 runs per game (4.9), bolstered by solid hitting statistics including an on-base percentage of over 73%. This could spell trouble for Buehler if he doesn’t find his rhythm early.

The recent history between these two teams adds another layer to our analysis; Boston won their last encounter decisively with a scoreline of 3-1—an outcome that favored UNDER bettors given how few runs were scored relative to expectations. But looking at both teams’ current form reveals differing trends: while Tampa Bay has gone UNDER in four of their last six games, Boston’s bats seem to be heating up as they’ve gone OVER in five out of six recent contests.

When considering offensive outputs, it’s clear why oddsmakers opened this game with a total set at 9.5 runs—the average combined scoring potential from both teams suggests we might see more fireworks than expected on Wednesday night. The Rays are averaging just over four runs per game (4.4), while the Red Sox are significantly better offensively at nearly five (4.9).

Given all these factors—particularly Littell’s recent struggles coupled with Buehler’s inconsistency—I predict that we’ll see some scoring opportunities arise throughout this matchup despite both pitchers being capable arms on paper.

In conclusion, I foresee a competitive game where the Red Sox might struggle against Littell initially but eventually capitalize on his mistakes as they build momentum through their lineup depth and home-field advantage at Fenway Park—a place notorious for its high-scoring affairs when conditions align just right.

I’m leaning towards predicting a victory for Tampa Bay tonight but expect an OVER outcome as well due to both offenses finding ways to put up numbers against two pitchers who may not be at their best today.