Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins - August 22, 2025

The Toronto Blue Jays will beat the Miami Marlins. The Miami Marlins will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I rate Toronto as the right side because the profile is cleaner on both contact volume and run conversion. Toronto averages 4.9 runs on 9.2 hits, while Miami sits at 4.3 runs on 8.5 hits. That half-run gap in scoring, paired with a hit edge of 0.7 per game, points to a steady offensive advantage. On the run prevention side, Toronto’s 4.3 ERA is modestly stronger than Miami’s 4.6, tightening the projection around a one-run margin. In other words, the matchup tilts Toronto, but not enough to expect a comfortable cushion, which sets up Miami to cover typical spreads.

I expect the total to clear because the baseline output supports a lively run environment. The combined scoring average is 9.2 runs, and the ERAs, 4.3 and 4.6, align with a game that lands near 9.0 runs in neutral conditions. The clubs produce 17.7 hits per game together, and both convert at roughly 0.5 runs per hit, a mix that sustains multi-inning traffic and timely scoring. With neither staff projecting shutdown efficiency, extra trips through the order should favor the bats. I project a tight script, something like 5-4 in favor of Toronto, which lands over common totals while keeping Miami within the number.