Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins - August 24, 2025

The Toronto Blue Jays will beat the Miami Marlins. The Miami Marlins will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project Toronto to control this matchup because its offense is measurably stronger. Toronto averages 4.9 runs and 9.1 hits with a .259 average, all edges over Miami’s 4.3 runs, 8.6 hits, and .246 average. The pitching tilt is modest but meaningful as well, with Toronto carrying a 4.3 ERA versus Miami’s 4.6. That combination of a more efficient lineup and slightly better run prevention is enough for me to side with Toronto on the moneyline.

The total trends over because both clubs profile for steady traffic. My baseline shows a combined 9.2 runs and 17.7 hits, consistent with a game that pushes past a typical total. Miami’s contact rate at 8.6 hits per game should translate, especially against a Toronto staff that is solid but not stifling at a 4.3 ERA. Toronto’s bats, already at 4.9 runs per game, should capitalize on Miami’s 4.6 ERA. As for the spread, the matchup grades as competitive. The run environment and Miami’s respectable run production point to a tight finish. I forecast a margin near 1.1 runs, with Toronto winning more often but not separating comfortably. The most likely script is a one-run Toronto win in a game with sustained offense, which puts Miami in position to cover while the total clears the number.