Tottenham Hotspur @ Manchester City - August 23, 2025

The Manchester City will beat the Tottenham Hotspur. The total will go over.

I expect the Manchester City to control this match through efficient possession and disciplined pressure. Their 88.7 percent passing suggests stable ball retention that sustains territory, and a low 7.0 fouls indicates they limit transition exposure. The recent profile of 15.0 shots with 4.0 on target converting into 4.0 goals shows top-end finishing and chance quality. Even if that 100.0 percent goals per shot on target regresses, the underlying structure remains favorable. The Tottenham Hotspur can generate volume, but at 85.3 percent passing and 14.0 fouls, they are more turnover prone and grant more set pieces. Against a side that values field position and quick restarts, that is a losing trade.

The total trends over because both attacks push the tempo and find the target. Combined recent outputs show 31.0 shots and 10.0 on target, yielding 7.0 goals. The Tottenham Hotspur posted 16.0 shots with 6.0 on frame, a 37.5 percent on-target rate and 18.8 percent goals per shot. The Manchester City recorded 26.7 percent shots on target and perfect conversion, which will cool, but shot volume and possession share should keep expected goals elevated. With City’s control leading to sustained pressure and Spurs’ direct approach creating counters, I project attempts in the high 20s to low 30s and on-target looks near double digits. That mix supports a multi-goal City edge and a total clearing the number.