Hellas Verona @ Udinese Calcio - August 25, 2025

The Udinese Calcio will beat the Hellas Verona. The total will go under.

I make Udinese the rightful favorite on volume and efficiency. They average 11.4 shots to 9.9, with a cleaner 3.6 on target versus 2.5. Their passing is sharper at 78.5 percent against 72.3 percent, which points to steadier possession and more repeatable entries. The accuracy gap matters. Udinese put 31.6 percent of shots on frame, while Verona sit at 25.3 percent. Both convert chances at similar rates per shot, but Udinese simply generate more and better looks. Verona’s attack profiles as low output at 0.9 goals per match, and their higher foul rate at 15.1, compared to 14.2, suggests they spend more time disrupting than constructing.

The under is supported by base rates and tempo signals. The combined scoring average is 2.0 goals, below the common 2.5 line. With only 6.1 shots on target projected, and a typical conversion around 0.3 per shot on target, I estimate roughly 1.8 expected goals. A whistle-heavy game, driven by 29.3 combined fouls, tends to fragment play and cut down transition chances. That tilts the script toward a narrow result where Udinese’s marginal edges in precision and shot supply decide it without pushing the total over. I expect Udinese to manage a low-event lead and close it out. My projection is 1-0, with 2-0 as the secondary outcome.