VfB Stuttgart @ FC Union Berlin - August 23, 2025

The VfB Stuttgart will beat the FC Union Berlin. The total will go over.

I project Stuttgart to control this match through superior efficiency and volume. They average 1.9 goals per match against Union’s 1.0, a gap that aligns with sharper attacking fundamentals. Stuttgart takes 13.7 shots with 5.1 on target, comfortably ahead of Union’s 12.2 and 3.5. The 82.9 passing percentage points to sustained possession and cleaner progression, while Union sits at 71.1, a profile that invites pressure and limits chance quality. Discipline tilts toward Stuttgart as well at 10.5 fouls committed versus 12.4, reducing the risk of gifting set pieces and helping game state management once ahead.

The total trends over on base rates alone. The combined scoring average is 2.9, which clears the common 2.5 threshold. With an expected 8.6 shots on target between them, even a modest 30.0 percent conversion implies roughly 2.6 goals, and Stuttgart’s attack is positioned to push that higher. Union’s higher foul rate can also create dead ball chances at both ends, adding variance to the scoreline. In a matchup where one side carries the shooting, accuracy, and passing edges across the board, I expect Stuttgart to generate the more dangerous volume, convert at a higher clip, and force Union to open up late. That sequence supports both the moneyline and the over.