VfL Wolfsburg @ 1. FC Heidenheim - August 23, 2025

The VfL Wolfsburg will beat the 1. FC Heidenheim. The total will go under.

I project Wolfsburg to control this match with incremental advantages that add up. They produce 12.7 shots and 4.0 on target per match, both higher than Heidenheim at 11.9 and 3.7. That edge translates into a cleaner attack, with Wolfsburg converting 12.6 percent of shots and 40.0 percent of shots on target, compared to 9.2 percent and 29.7 percent for Heidenheim. Possession security tilts their way as well, 75.9 percent passing to 74.8 percent, and they commit fewer fouls at 10.2 to 11.2. The profile is of a side that sustains pressure without giving away easy outs, which supports a clinical, narrow win. With Heidenheim averaging 1.1 goals and Wolfsburg at 1.6, the baseline scoring gap favors the hosts and is consistent with a one-goal margin.

The under is the logical complement. The combined shots on target sit at 7.7, a modest volume that, when paired with these conversion rates, projects a total in the mid twos. Heidenheim’s slightly higher foul rate disrupts rhythm, and Wolfsburg’s discipline reduces chaotic phases that inflate scoring. If Wolfsburg get ahead, their passing control should lower tempo and limit late volatility. The statistical shape points to a contained match defined by chance quality rather than quantity. That looks like 1-0 or 2-0 more often than a shootout, keeping the total under while Wolfsburg take the points.