Winnipeg Jets @ New York Islanders - March 4, 2025

As the Winnipeg Jets prepare to face off against the New York Islanders at UBS Arena, fans can expect a matchup that highlights contrasting fortunes and styles. The oddsmakers have opened with the Jets as -127 moneyline favorites, while the total sits at 5.5. Given recent performances and statistical trends, I believe this game will favor Winnipeg.

Let’s break down what we can anticipate from both teams. The Jets enter this contest with a solid record of 30-12-3 SU, boasting an impressive offensive output of 3.5 goals per game on average and a shooting percentage of 12.2%. Their power play has been particularly effective, converting at an impressive rate of 30.5%. This efficiency on special teams could be pivotal against an Islanders squad that struggles in this area, posting just an 11.3% power play success rate.

On the other hand, the Islanders are having a tough season with a record of 17-19-7 SU. They score an average of only 2.8 goals per game with a shooting percentage hovering around 10%. Their inability to capitalize on power play opportunities further complicates their offensive woes; they net just under one power play goal per game despite having over two chances.

Defensively, both teams show strengths but also weaknesses that could impact the outcome. The Jets boast a save percentage of 91.7%, which is among the best in the league, while their penalty kill stands at nearly 79.5%. Conversely, while the Islanders’ save percentage is respectable at 89.5%, their penalty kill is less effective at just over 72%. If Winnipeg can draw penalties and leverage their potent power play effectively tonight, they may find themselves generating significant scoring opportunities.

Recent trends indicate that Winnipeg has struggled against the spread lately (1-5 ATS in their last six games), but they’ve won eleven out of their last thirteen games outright—an indication that when it comes to winning games rather than covering spreads, they tend to come through more often than not.

For New York, although they’ve shown some resilience by going 11-5 ATS in their last sixteen contests overall, they’ve lost five out of seven games recently—indicating troubling signs for bettors considering them as underdogs tonight.

Given these insights and statistical analyses leading up to this match-up: my prediction leans heavily towards a Winnipeg victory covering the spread comfortably while keeping within or below that total line set at 5.5 goals—especially given how both offenses have performed recently and how defensively sound Winnipeg has been.

In conclusion: Expect a tightly contested affair where Winnipeg capitalizes on its advantages offensively and defensively to secure another win as they continue pushing toward playoff positioning amidst fluctuating performances from New York’s roster.