Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees - August 25, 2025

The New York Yankees will beat the Washington Nationals. The Washington Nationals will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project the Yankees with an advantage driven by a stronger run profile, averaging 5.1 runs and 8.5 hits, with a 24.3 percent batting average, against 4.3 runs, 8.2 hits, and 23.7 percent for the Nationals. That offensive gap pairs with a meaningful run prevention edge, as the Yankees bring a 4.1 ERA compared to 5.4 for Washington. On a neutral field and typical scoring conditions, the baseline margin sits near 0.8 runs, which points to New York in a straight-up result.

For the total, both teams combine for 9.4 runs on average. Against a staff allowing a 5.4 ERA, the Yankees’ contact and power profile should outperform their baseline, while the Nationals’ 8.2 hits and 23.7 percent average should translate to steady traffic against a 4.1 staff. That setup pushes the projection into double digits, so I take the over. For the spread, I lean toward a one-run decision. The Yankees’ advantage is real but not overwhelming given their 4.1 ERA, and the Nationals put enough balls in play to capitalize on mistakes. With an expected margin under 1.0 runs, I will back the Nationals to cover while the Yankees close it out late.