Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies - August 24, 2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will beat the Washington Nationals. The Washington Nationals will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project Philadelphia to control this matchup because their baseline run creation and run prevention are superior. The Phillies average 4.8 runs and 8.8 hits with a 0.3 batting average, outpacing Washington’s 4.3 runs and 8.2 hits at a 0.2 average. The larger edge appears on the mound, where Philadelphia’s 3.8 ERA contrasts sharply with Washington’s 5.4. That gap suggests the Phillies will convert more of their traffic into runs while limiting big innings on the other side. Over nine innings, that efficiency advantage typically translates to a narrow but consistent lead.

For the spread and total, the combined scoring baselines point to an over. The teams average 9.1 runs together, and with Washington’s 5.4 ERA inviting crooked numbers, run production should stay elevated. At the same time, Washington’s offense is functional enough at 4.3 runs and 8.2 hits to keep this within a run or two, especially in a divisional setting where familiarity compresses margins. The projected hit total of 17.0 creates steady traffic that fuels both scoring and late-inning variance, which favors an over without requiring a blowout. I expect a one-run margin and a final in the neighborhood of 5-4, consistent with Philadelphia winning, Washington covering, and the total clearing the number.