As President Donald Trump’s favorability in the public continues to see-saw, we review the latest betting odds and make our Trump approval rating prediction!
Online betting sites have released intriguing prop bets, and I’ve identified some solid wagers. Head below to find the latest prop bets, Trump approval odds, and best bets for his approval rating on August 1.
Trump Approval Rating Betting Odds
| BETTING MARKET | FAVORITE | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| Over/Under | Under 44.5% (-200) | Under 44.5% (-200) |
| Approval Rating Margin | 43% or Lower (+275) 44.0% – 44.9% (+275) | 44.0 – 44.9% (+275) |
BetOnline is offering two markets on Trump’s approval on August 1. The first bet is a simple over/under, which stipulates whether the approval rating for Trump will be higher or lower than 44.5%, according to Silver Bulletin. As of July 10, Trump has a 44.9% approval rating.
Currently, an approval rate under 44.5% is favored with implied odds of 66.67%. That doesn’t particularly bode well for Trump, as the best political betting sites don’t appear to have much faith in him holding where he is right now.
If you are feeling bolder and want to aim for a larger payout, try the approving rating margin prop. At +275 odds, lower than 43% and 44.0 to 44.9% have the same likelihood, with a 26.7% chance.
You can find updated Trump approval rating odds at BetOnline by navigating to Sports > Politics > Trump Specials > Trump Approval Rating on August 1.
Major Factors for Trump’s Approval Rating on August 1
On the day of Trump’s inauguration, January 20, the President of the United States had a 47% approval rating. This was up from 45% during his first term in 2017. However, his rating has steadily dropped since being sworn into the White House for a second time.
What factors are impacting Trump’s approval rating? We put everything into context below:
1. Cost of Living
Always an important trigger point for voters, the cost of living, including gas, groceries, rent, utilities, and health care, is front and center. Many voters might be able to forgive the president for other wrongdoings if prices are down.
However, a Navigator Research poll revealed that 70% of Americans feel negatively about the economy, and 54% are very worried about the cost of living increasing.
2. Tariffs
Trump has repeatedly used tariffs as a weapon against allies and foes alike. He is using them as a bargaining tool to attempt to work out trade deals to benefit the United States. That said, it has the potential to have the opposite impact and lead to job losses and higher prices on goods.
In May, it was revealed that Americans are against tariffs by a roughly 60%-36% margin. While many Americans may not give tariffs much thought, a number of business owners and workers are concerned about Trump’s continual flip-flopping.
3. Jeffrey Epstein Files
The Trump administration dropped a bombshell when they reported that a Jeffrey Epstein list doesn’t exist. In other words, there won’t be any more Epstein documents released, and the case is closed.
Republican voters have been adamant about Trump bringing justice and punishing those who were on the list.
President Trump and AG Pam Bondi respond to a question about Epstein: pic.twitter.com/jyBGBx9dbq
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 8, 2025
According to the administration, though, there is nothing to see here and everyone should move along. Trump was upset at being asked by a reporter about the files, but he may not be able to ignore it enough when it comes to his poll numbers.
4. Big Beautiful Bill
After the Senate approved Trump’s policy bill by a 51-50 vote, and the House’s 218-214 vote to pass it, voters were either impressed or discouraged by the news.
With budget cuts to Medicaid and changes to the tax law, there are issues that resonate with voters in the bill. Per Gallup, Trump’s poll numbers dove after the bill passed.
5. Israel-Hamas War
As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues despite recent peace talks, Trump’s approval rating is being impacted by the war. In June, it was revealed that American sympathy for Israelis reached an all-time low of 37%, per Quinnipiac.
While fewer Americans feel sympathy for Palestinians remained lower at 32%, the gap closed further in the recent poll. Trump has been a staunch supporter of Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu’s attack on Palestine.
President Donald J. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 🇺🇸🤝🇮🇱 pic.twitter.com/O59D7JXUMC
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 8, 2025
Many Arab Americans refused to vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election because Joe Biden supported Israel. Now with Trump doubling down and putting his support behind Israel, he’s in a tough spot of his own with certain demographics.
Trump Approval Rating Prediction on August 1
Several forces are working against Trump right now, and even diehard MAGA voters are left wondering. Everyone can agree, from Democrats to MAGA, that Trump’s refusal to release the Epstein client list and go after the perpetrators is a huge blemish on his resume.
The longer the president ignores the Epstein case and hopes it is removed from the headlines, the tougher it will be to get his approval rating moving in a positive direction. Respondents in polls were already not too thrilled with the “Big Beautiful Bill” recently, so closing the Epstein case is a double whammy.
That is the biggest takeaway for Trump’s approval rating in July. Additionally, the non-stop changes to his tariff strategy are not pleasing many business owners who are finding it difficult to plan for the future.
In any event, the refusal to discuss Epstein’s case and claiming there isn’t a client list will push his approval rating below 44.5% by August 1. It’s likely going to hover just above 44%, so the margin prop bet is a razor-sharp number, given the current odds.
In short, for my Trump predicted approval rating pick, I suggest backing under 44.5%!
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