Best College Football Player Props Today: Expert NCAAF Player Prop Bets

Total Passing Yards: Bishop Davenport (SAL) Over 194.5 (-115)

South Alabama QB Bishop Davenport hasn’t exactly lit up the stat sheet this season, but the number on his passing line for Thursday feels a bit too modest. At over 194.5 yards (-115), there’s sneaky value in backing the South Alabama quarterback against a shaky Georgia State secondary.

Through seven games, Davenport has totaled 1,181 passing yards with nine touchdowns and four picks. He’s been more game manager than gunslinger, but this matchup presents a chance to open things up. Georgia State ranks 105th in the FBS in passing defense, giving up 257 yards per game through the air.

South Alabama 10, Western Michigan 10 | 10:29 2Q | Bishop Davenport to Jeremiah Webb on a 52-yard touchdown pass play for the Jaguars. pic.twitter.com/wMhw68Bxir

— Alabama7AFootball (@AL7AFootball) December 15, 2024

In a spot where the Jaguars need their QB to step up, Davenport doesn’t need to be perfect, just productive enough. Expect him to flirt with the 200-yard mark and potentially clear it with room to spare.

This feels like one of his better setups of the season to go over his number.

Total Receiving Yards: Ted Hurst (GSU) Under 77.5 (-115)

WR Ted Hurst has put together a solid season for Georgia State, but his matchup tonight against South Alabama is one of the toughest he’s faced all year. With his receiving yards total set near 78.5, the under at -115 looks like the sharper side.

Hurst has hauled in 42 catches for 579 yards, but his production has cooled lately, as he’s been held under 78 yards in three of his last four games. That trend is likely to continue against a Jaguars secondary that’s allowing just 177.5 passing yards per game, ranking 19th nationally.

South Alabama plays physical on the outside and limits big plays, making it tough for wideouts to find room. Hurst may still be involved, but hitting a high yardage number against this defense feels like a tall order. The under is the play here.

1. Evaluate Roster Turnover and Returning/Departing Players

While this is a must for placing your college football picks on traditional markets like the point spread, it’s also important to examine roster turnover for prop betting.

Let’s assume an experienced defense from the 2023-24 season has several new faces in the secondary for this year. Especially through the first month, we can assume that there will be an adjustment period for the defense.

As a result, quarterbacks and wide receivers typically have a high likelihood of feasting on these units. Of course, this can be applied to a variety of situations and examples.

For instance, if you are considering backing a running back’s rushing prop bet, I would advise investigating the experience on the offensive line before betting. Additionally, the defensive line and linebackers of the opposing defense are worth your time.

Teams can look much different than the previous season in college football because of graduations and the transfer portal, so it’s invaluable information to have for your NCAA football player props today!

2. Know the Team’s Offensive Philosophy and System

College football is unique due to the variety of different offensive systems that teams utilize. From conference to conference and team to team, coaches have implemented their system to best suit their personnel.

Some of these offensive strategies include the pro-style offense, pistol offense, air-raid offense, run-and-shoot offense, spread offense, option offense, and more.

The system will have a direct correlation to offensive output. An air-raid offense is going to put up far more yardage through the air than a pro-style system, for instance.

Understanding the offensive objective of the players you are backing for your NCAA football player props is vital for being profitable.

3. Analyze Each Individual Matchup for Strengths and Weaknesses

You can’t make your best college football prop bets without breaking down each individual matchup! It would be a losing proposition to not take into consideration the strengths and weaknesses of each squad.

This also ties into analyzing team and NCAA statistics to help you ascertain which teams are excelling and struggling in certain areas. I have come to discover that teams rarely fix trouble spots with their roster in the same season.

When a team is bad against the run, pass, and so on, it typically takes an offseason or two to address these needs. Things that are working and failing tend to continue through the season.

In short, I recommend identifying early trends and noting them for your wagers in the future.

Carson Beck Passing Yards Prop:

• BetUS: Over 280.5 (-120), Under 280.5 (-110)
• Bovada: Over 278.5 (-115), Under 278.5 (-115)

• Bovada
• Betwhale
• BetUS
• BetOnline