NFL Week 16 Upset Picks: Best Underdog Predictions

Titans to Beat Chiefs (+160)

Tennessee at +160 on the moneyline looks like one of the more intriguing underdog plays on the Week 16 slate.

The backdrop here is massive value for bettors because Patrick Mahomes is out for the season with a torn ACL, instantly dimming what used to be one of the most potent offenses in football. With Mahomes sidelined, Kansas City’s scoring upside drops significantly and opens the door for an upset.

Crazy what Cam Ward can do with an actual pocket pic.twitter.com/4O7qagsblB

— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) December 14, 2025

The Chiefs have been trending in the wrong direction even before their star quarterback’s injury, losing five of their last six games and topping 21 points just once over that stretch.

On the other side, Tennessee has shown flashes of offensive life, scoring more than 21 in three of the last four games. That level of production against a suddenly vulnerable Chiefs defense is enough to make the Titans live underdogs you want to back.

Add in Kansas City’s struggles on the road, 1‑5 with four straight losses away from home, and this feels like a spot where the Titans can sneak one outright at plus‑money.

Jets to Beat Saints (+186)

At +186, the Jets offer solid underdog value in a matchup that sets up better than it looks on paper.

New Orleans has picked up three wins in its last five games, but all of them came within the NFC South. When stepping out of that soft division, the Saints have struggled, failing to notch a single win against AFC opponents this year. That trend is in play again with the Jets coming to town.

The big variable for New York is the potential return of Tyrod Taylor, who missed last week with a groin injury. If he’s good to go, the Jets’ offense gets a meaningful lift. Taylor’s experience and mobility open up the playbook in a way that their backups simply can’t replicate.

This also looks like a prime get-right spot for Breece Hall, who draws a Saints defense giving up over 130 rushing yards per game. With Hall breaking out and Taylor stabilizing the offense, the Jets have a clear path to an upset.

Patriots to Beat Ravens (+134)

At +134, the Patriots are a live dog worth backing in this AFC clash. Despite last week’s stumble, New England had ripped off 10 straight wins prior, and they remain one of the most balanced teams in football.

148 on the ground 😤@TreVeyonH4 | #NEPats pic.twitter.com/J0z4Q9n3wb

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 16, 2025

Offensively, they’re rolling with the sixth-most total yards per game and putting up over 27 points per contest. New England’s offense makes them a tough matchup for a Ravens defense that’s looked shaky all year.

Baltimore’s issues aren’t limited to the defense. Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked right since returning from a hamstring injury, managing just eight completions on 12 attempts in last week’s win. That kind of limited output won’t cut it against a Patriots unit that forces opponents to keep pace.

Add in New England’s defense, which is giving up fewer than 20 points per game, and this one sets up as a spot where the Patriots can outgun and outlast a Ravens team still searching for rhythm.

1. Identify Teams/Players That Excel as Underdogs

Certain NFL teams prefer to play with their backs against the wall. Some players and head coaches are at their best when they are in an underdog role.

The competitive spirit of wanting to prove doubters wrong can be a strong motivator! One of the most effective ways to identify these squads is to note teams that have a strong record as an underdog on the moneyline.

Additionally, bettors can use against-the-spread (ATS) data to help formulate their game plan. For instance, the Arizona Cardinals (7-2-0 ATS), Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4-1 ATS), Los Angeles Rams (7-4-0 ATS), and Philadelphia Eagles (4-0-0 ATS) were great underdog NFL picks last season.

2. Compare Matchups/Strengths and Weaknesses

There will always be an underdog and a favorite in every NFL matchup! However, did bookies miss something in their analysis? For instance, does the underdog have one glaring advantage over a weakness of the favorite side?

It requires digging into advanced statistics to find these small edges on the football field. The public and online sportsbooks are well aware of the major mismatches in games. We recommend researching these strengths and weaknesses, but also looking at the game within the game.

For instance, does the favorite have an injury or depth issues flying under the radar that the public is ignoring? Injuries to star players aren’t the only determining factor in the result of games.

The health and status of the offensive line is also a huge factor that can’t be ignored! There are great teams in the NFL that can crumble due to problems in the trenches, so always check on this aspect for your best underdog picks in the NFL.

3. Look for Letdown and Look-ahead Spots

Recency bias plays a huge role in how point spreads and NFL odds are crafted. Bettors react to what just happened instead of looking at the whole picture.

Following a big win, the line is generally impacted in favor of this team the ensuing week. It’s important to keep in mind that letdowns can happen afterward. This is especially true for mediocre to good teams that aren’t quite in elite territory.

However, it can bite any team in the NFL that isn’t prepared, especially on a short week! Thursday Night Football has a knack of sneaking up on teams only days following a signature victory.

Conversely, there is the classic look-ahead spot of favorites having their attention on a more formidable opponent or rivalry matchup the following week. These teams tend to go through the motions and fail to focus on the task at hand!

4. Line Movement and Line Shopping Are Key

I always monitor line movement throughout the week for my best NFL underdog picks and other selections. It’s also worth researching where the money is flowing, and which team is seeing the biggest bets.

If the shift isn’t following the bets on a public favorite, bookmakers are confident that they have it right and not the majority of bettors. In some instances, there is reverse line movement, where the odds move against the money.

Additionally, line shop for the best odds across multiple sports betting apps and sites. It can be the difference between winning and losing your best NFL underdog picks this week! Let’s examine a quick example between two popular bookies:

Lucky Rebel:

• • Dallas Cowboys +7 (-109)
  • Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-112)

BetOnline:

• • Dallas Cowboys +7.5 (-115)
  • Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 (-105)

If you like the Cowboys as an underdog, consider placing your bets at BetOnline! Conversely, Lucky Rebel offers a fantastic line on the Eagles as a favorite at -7, instead of the -7.5 at BetOnline.

The Sports Geek recommends checking out the odds at these reputable sportsbooks:

• • Bovada
  • Lucky Rebel
  • BetWhale
  • BetOnline
  • BetUS