NFL Week 15 Upset Picks: Best Underdog Predictions

Lions to Beat Rams (+226)

The Lions are getting value at +226, and here’s why this money‑line underdog has serious upset potential.

Detroit is the highest‑scoring team in the league, putting up over 30 points per game, and if their offensive line can keep Jared Goff clean, he will absolutely pick apart his former team and find Detroit’s playmakers.

Over his last 7 games the @Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs has:

a game w/ 250+ scrimmage yds
a game w/ 200+ rush yds
a game w/ 100+ rec yds
a game w/ 10+ catches
a game w/ 14.0+ yds/rush
3 games w/ 3+ TDs
a 75+ yd rush TD

No one else in NFL history has done all that over his entire career. pic.twitter.com/Lt0qtIwIq3

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) December 5, 2025

The Los Angeles Rams delivered a statement 45‑17 blowout win over the Cardinals last week, which may have quieted some doubters. But replicating that kind of performance against a far stronger offense like Detroit’s will be a tall order. Natural regression looms, and it could bite the Rams this week.

Los Angeles have also struggled to move the ball on the ground, forcing them to rely heavily on the pass, even in short‑yardage situations. Against a Lions defense that has racked up 11 interceptions this season, that heavy pass dependency could be their downfall.

If Detroit’s offense fires and the Rams’ passing game gets picked apart, the value on this +226 underdog is hard to ignore.

Raiders to Beat Eagles (+500)

The Raiders are a live longshot at +500, and they’re walking into a matchup that quietly tilts in their favor.

The champions have dropped three straight and looks like a team losing its identity. The offensive line is banged up, which has tanked an already struggling ground game. If Las Vegas can generate pressure early, it can throw Philly’s timing off and force Jalen Hurts into bad decisions.

On the other hand, the Eagles’ defense has regressed quickly, allowing 125 or more rushing yards in three straight losses. That’s an open invitation for the Raiders to unleash Ashton Jeanty, whose downhill style could expose the gaps in this front.

And with Brock Bowers back in the mix, Las Vegas suddenly has a legit passing threat that can take advantage of a depleted secondary. This is not just a flyer; it is a high-upside shot worth taking.

Dolphins to Beat Steelers (+155)

At +155, the Dolphins are a sharp play against a fading Steelers squad that’s showing cracks on both sides of the ball.

Pittsburgh have been gashed on the ground, allowing over 200 rushing yards in two straight. That’s a major red flag against a Miami team that’s leaned into its run game during a four-game win streak, racking up 160 or more rushing yards each time out.

The Dolphins are hotter than a Miami summer right now☀️#PhinsUp pic.twitter.com/8QtJoH1Bcg

— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) December 8, 2025

If the Dolphins establish the run early, they can control the tempo and keep Pittsburgh on its heels.

The Steelers haven’t done themselves any favors offensively either. Inconsistent quarterback play and poor execution in the red zone have fueled a 3-5 slide over their last eight. Miami’s defense, meanwhile, has held three straight opponents to under 215 passing yards and continues to force timely turnovers.

This matchup sets up perfectly for Miami to keep rolling and steal a win on the road. The plus-money value is too good to pass up.

1. Identify Teams/Players That Excel as Underdogs

Certain NFL teams prefer to play with their backs against the wall. Some players and head coaches are at their best when they are in an underdog role.

The competitive spirit of wanting to prove doubters wrong can be a strong motivator! One of the most effective ways to identify these squads is to note teams that have a strong record as an underdog on the moneyline.

Additionally, bettors can use against-the-spread (ATS) data to help formulate their game plan. For instance, the Arizona Cardinals (7-2-0 ATS), Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4-1 ATS), Los Angeles Rams (7-4-0 ATS), and Philadelphia Eagles (4-0-0 ATS) were great underdog NFL picks last season.

2. Compare Matchups/Strengths and Weaknesses

There will always be an underdog and a favorite in every NFL matchup! However, did bookies miss something in their analysis? For instance, does the underdog have one glaring advantage over a weakness of the favorite side?

It requires digging into advanced statistics to find these small edges on the football field. The public and online sportsbooks are well aware of the major mismatches in games. We recommend researching these strengths and weaknesses, but also looking at the game within the game.

For instance, does the favorite have an injury or depth issues flying under the radar that the public is ignoring? Injuries to star players aren’t the only determining factor in the result of games.

The health and status of the offensive line is also a huge factor that can’t be ignored! There are great teams in the NFL that can crumble due to problems in the trenches, so always check on this aspect for your best underdog picks in the NFL.

3. Look for Letdown and Look-ahead Spots

Recency bias plays a huge role in how point spreads and NFL odds are crafted. Bettors react to what just happened instead of looking at the whole picture.

Following a big win, the line is generally impacted in favor of this team the ensuing week. It’s important to keep in mind that letdowns can happen afterward. This is especially true for mediocre to good teams that aren’t quite in elite territory.

However, it can bite any team in the NFL that isn’t prepared, especially on a short week! Thursday Night Football has a knack of sneaking up on teams only days following a signature victory.

Conversely, there is the classic look-ahead spot of favorites having their attention on a more formidable opponent or rivalry matchup the following week. These teams tend to go through the motions and fail to focus on the task at hand!

4. Line Movement and Line Shopping Are Key

I always monitor line movement throughout the week for my best NFL underdog picks and other selections. It’s also worth researching where the money is flowing, and which team is seeing the biggest bets.

If the shift isn’t following the bets on a public favorite, bookmakers are confident that they have it right and not the majority of bettors. In some instances, there is reverse line movement, where the odds move against the money.

Additionally, line shop for the best odds across multiple sports betting apps and sites. It can be the difference between winning and losing your best NFL underdog picks this week! Let’s examine a quick example between two popular bookies:

Lucky Rebel:

• • Dallas Cowboys +7 (-109)
  • Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-112)

BetOnline:

• • Dallas Cowboys +7.5 (-115)
  • Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 (-105)

If you like the Cowboys as an underdog, consider placing your bets at BetOnline! Conversely, Lucky Rebel offers a fantastic line on the Eagles as a favorite at -7, instead of the -7.5 at BetOnline.

The Sports Geek recommends checking out the odds at these reputable sportsbooks:

• • Bovada
  • Lucky Rebel
  • BetWhale
  • BetOnline
  • BetUS