2024 Michigan Primary Odds, Analysis, And Predictions

As the 2024 presidential primaries roll through the Mitten State, the Michigan primary odds are heating up at the best political betting sites. A clear picture has emerged of who the Democratic and Republican nominees are in 2024, but faint hope remains for the challengers.

Nikky Haley’s Michigan primary betting odds suggest that she has zero chance, but the former governor of South Carolina is not giving up. Following a devastating loss to Trump in the South Carolina primary, Haley is still putting on a brave face and is undeterred of her critics entering Michigan.

The situation is even bleaker for Democrat Dean Phillips. As the lone candidate running against President Joe Biden, the challenger has barely registered at polls in the Democratic primary.

Can these two find unlikely wins in the Great Lake State in an attempt to change their fortunes? The latest Michigan primary odds suggest the answer is no, because you can’t even bet on the underdogs! There are other options available, though, so let’s check them out.

2024 Michigan Presidential Primary Betting Odds

The following betting odds MI primary are courtesy of BetUS:

As political betting continues to soar in popularity, the bookies have increased the number of lines available for the U.S. Presidential Election.

That being said, the odds to win the Michigan primary are not on the board. Trump and Biden have such a large lead that you can only target props.

BetUS offers some interesting opportunities related to the eventual results. Currently, Trump is favored to receive 65 to 69.99% of the vote in the Michigan Republican primary.

At +175, Trump has an implied probability of 36.4% to win Michigan by a vote share of 65 to 69.99%. Meanwhile, Biden has an Over/Under of 84.5% of the vote in the Democratic Michigan primary.

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Factors Influencing The Michigan Primary Odds

Trump is the clear favorite based on his dominance through the first four states. In addition to winning South Carolina, Trump cleared Haley comfortably in the New Hampshire primary, Iowa caucus, and Nevada.

In Nevada, things got so bad for Haley that she lost to “none of these candidates”. Therefore, Trump favored to win the Michigan primary by 65-69.99% looks accurate.

Additionally, the latest Michigan primary polls have revealed that Trump has a commanding lead. According to a poll released by Emerson College Polling and The Hill, 69% of respondents indicated they are voting for Trump¹.

Biden’s vote share Over/Under is lower than in South Carolina, where he won with 96.2% of the vote². Despite the landslide win, Biden’s MI primary betting odds have fallen to 84.5% of the vote.

In the Emerson College Polling poll, only 75% of Democrats polled preferred Biden. Many Democrats in Michigan are concerned with Biden’s views on the Israel-Hamas war.

Due to Biden’s support for Israel, there are Democrats considering voting for “uncommitted” in the Michigan primary.

Candidate Overview And Strategies

Haley’s Michigan primary strategy remains the same as it always has been during her campaign: Attack and criticize every decisive Trump talking point that she can.

The latest jab at Trump is regarding his position on NATO and Russia. The former president has been displeased with some NATO member’s funding. As a result, he would encourage Russia to infiltrate these countries militarily³.

Haley used the opportunity to ramp up her criticism of Trump, which has included attacking him for his long list of court cases. Nevertheless, GOP voters are tuning Haley out and voting for the former president.

Leading up to the Michigan primary, Trump has been holding rallies throughout Michigan. With such a large lead, the favorite does not have to go off the script to win this state. The same can be said for Biden, who doesn’t have any competition in the Democratic Michigan presidential primary.

Phillips’ strategy? Biden’s opponent is currently under pressure from Democrats after a former hired operative admitted to orchestrating the AI-generated fake Biden robocalls before the New Hampshire primary⁴. 

At this juncture, the best strategy for Phillips would be to withdraw from the presidential race.

Expert Predictions vs. Michigan Primary Betting Odds

There isn’t a discrepancy between political pundits and the 2024 Michigan primary odds. The popular opinion among Democrats and Republicans is that Trump will roll over Haley in Michigan.

Michigan will be an important swing state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, but experts do not foresee any drama in the state primary. This is reflected in the Michigan primary betting odds.

As I noted, the “uncommitted” vote has been raised by political experts and some Democrats in Michigan.For instance, the top Muslim lawmaker in Michigan, Rep. Abraham Aiyash, is telling the residents of Michigan to stand against Biden.

The highly critical state representative has not shied away from criticizing Biden’s lack of urgency in seeking a ceasefire⁵.

“We’re talking about Joe Biden. He stood with no spine and did not demand peace for the Palestinians, did not demand peace for the Israels — but instead, continues to fund a genocide.”

The Michigan primary odds seemingly acknowledges that Michigan’s large Muslin population is listening. Biden could be looking at winning the state with less than 85% of the vote, down markedly from the previous primaries.

Political Impact Of The Michigan Primary

Biden is winning the Michigan primary, though there could be some warning signs for the 81-year-old. If too many voters opt to check “uncommitted”, the alarm bells could be going off for Biden’s campaign.

In such an important swing state, Biden can’t afford to lose votes in Michigan. It’s a state that should be tightly contested, and if Biden loses the Arab American vote, he could be in a bind.

As far as the Democratic primary is concerned, Phillips could drop out of the race with a big loss. It doesn’t mean that Biden is a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, however. Currently, Biden is -200 to be the Democratic nominee — far from an automatic lock.

At +550, Michelle Obama has the second-best odds to represent the Democratic Party in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. In comparison, Phillips is +5000 to win the Democratic nomination.

The political impact on the Republican Michigan primary may not alter much. Haley has claimed that she is staying in the race through Super Tuesday. However, we will see if the Koch brother’s Americans for Prosperity Action (AFP) pausing their funding to her campaign changes her mind ⁶.

As one of her largest supporters, losing their backing is a serious concern for Haley’s efforts. Losing the Michigan primary is yet another dagger in her presidential aspirations.

Michigan Primary Prediction And Betting Pick

The Michigan primary betting odds include two prop bets at BetUS. Each primary has a bet for the share of the vote this week in Michigan:

Democratic Michigan Primary Prediction

Biden will capture Michigan without any semblance of a threat from Phillips. However, the “uncommitted” voters are likely going to be out in greater numbers than he’d like to see.

Republican Michigan Primary Prediction

For the Republicans, the favorite shouldn’t have any issues coming out of Michigan with a win. As the Michigan primary odds suggest, Trump should win by 65% or more. The +200 odds for a vote share of 70 to 74.99% look very tempting and are definitely among the best Michigan primary bets available online.

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