The Republican VP odds suggest it’s going to be a close race for Trump’s number two in 2024! There’s no clear favorite and you can find prices for various people at the best political betting sites.
Vice Presidential picks are often picked shortly before the Republican Convention, which starts on July 15 this year. If we assume that Donald Trump chooses his Vice President three weeks before the convention, you have until June 24 to place your bets.
Your VP picks demand precision, and the payouts are high for anyone who can play Trump’s game theory along with him. Those odds tell us that both oddsmakers and political bettors are as uncertain about Trump’s VP pick as the pundits.
Republican VP Candidate Odds In 2024
The following Republican VP betting odds for 2024 are courtesy of BetOnline.
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tim Scott | +325 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +450 |
| Kristi Noem | +800 |
| Ben Carson | +1000 |
| J.D. Vance | +1000 |
| Elise Stefanik | +1200 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +1400 |
| Nikki Haley | +2000 |
The odds for Republican VP candidate tell us a lot about the shortlist and how remote the chances for key media figures are. I’ve only included the eight most realistic options, but BetOnline offers many more, so check them out if you’re looking to bet on a shocking candidate.
The first six choices roughly line up with the reported VP candidates on Trump’s shortlist. Candidates like Tim Scott, Tulsi Gabbard, and Elise Stefanik offer legislative experience that can help him push his agenda through Congress and block Democratic counter-moves.
Few of the likely vice-presidential candidates are former presidential candidates. Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSAntis have noticeably longer odds than the congressmen and governors.
Above all, each of the likely candidates has demonstrated unwavering public support to Donald Trump. It’s why Nikki Haley’s odds push +2000 while Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds are much shorter at +1400.
He captures the libertarian imagination but has never held public office. Haley built her campaign around an anti-Trump Tea Party image. Neither has as much to offer Trump as BetOnline’s top six candidates.
Let’s check the more likely VP candidates next, before I share my prediction.
Top Favorites For The Republican Vice President Nominee
Traditionally, one of the vice-presidential jobs is to secure their home state for their candidate. However, none of the favorite VP picks come from swing states. Instead, they’re largely candidates who could compliment Trump’s weaknesses. The favorites bring legislative experience and media polish to the campaign.
Each of the favorites has demonstrated the necessary loyalty to be considered for the vice presidency. They have also embraced the right wing of the Republican Party where Trump’s MAGA base lives.
The choice will come down to what they can offer Trump in the general election, where moderate voters are put off by radical positions on issues like abortion and election denial.
Tim Scott
In the long run, Tim Scott is one of the most interesting conservatives today. He is part of a project called America’s Starting Five. According to NBC, Scott and four other Black congressional Republicans release weekly YouTube videos. Their goal is “both to make Black conservatives more visible and to reach Black voters.”
Drawing Black voters into the Republican Party is a long-term project. In 2020, Biden won 92% of Black voters. The historical reasons for Democratic loyalty among Black voters run deep. The shared history of slavery, Jim Crowe, and civil rights struggles bind the Black community tightly to each other and the party that enacted civil rights.
However, there are far more Black conservatives than Black Republicans. In the general election, Tim Scott’s outreach experience could sway some of those Black conservatives to vote Republican.
Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard has undergone the most dramatic transformation among the potential VP candidates. In 2016, she was a Bernie Sanders supporter. In 2024, she spoke at CPAC to decry Donald Trump’s criminal trials and soften the image of the January 6 riot.
The one constant in Gabbard’s worldview is her anti-establishment views. Her resentment of elite power was as omnipresent in her liberal days as it is in her conservative present.
Resentment of elites was the engine that powered Donald Trump’s rise to power. Every time Trump speaks to the “forgotten men and women of our country,” he’s making this appeal, and Gabbard matches it.
She could also help Trump make up lost ground with suburban women who are alarmed by the rollback of abortion rights. Trump has proudly taken credit for Roe v. Wade’s overturning. In the general election, Gabbard could play a much-needed role in Trump’s campaign.
Kristi Noem
Kristi Noem, the governor of South Carolina, has been making aggressive overtures to Donald Trump. She’s on the record saying that she wouldn’t run against him because he’s such a skilled politician. Clearly, she fulfills the loyalty requirement.
Her hard-right religious credentials are also without question. She also has a hard stance on abortions. On one hand, Noem could play a similar role that Mike Pence played in Trump’s 2016 election and serve as a bridge to evangelical Christian voters.
However, Noem would fail to bridge the electoral gap created by Roe v. Wade’s overturn. While her loyalty and MAGA credentials would fit her on a Trump ticket, she may not play to the needs of the general election.
J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance first rose to prominence with his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy. He described his Appalachian upbringing, mixing criticism of his childhood with critiques of urban liberals who looked down on him and his family.
Today, he’s a Republican Senator from Ohio who has joined the chorus of anti-establishment conservatives.
To all of our voters demoralized by what the House did today: keep fighting.
It won’t be easy, but we’re going to save this country.
— J.D. Vance (@JDVance1) April 19, 2024
Vance has offered Donald Trump his support and received back his endorsement during his Ohio senate primary.
Vance could bring a mellower voice to Trump’s ticket but wouldn’t bridge any of the important gaps in the general election. Ohio is already a red state, so Vance wouldn’t bring a new swing state to the table, either. There are better VP than Vance.
Elise Stefanik
Elise Stefanik began as a moderate Republican. Her 2014 House election was a year after the Republican “autopsy.” The autopsy was a report listing the reasons why Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama in 2012 and how the Republicans needed to change. The report advocated for a more diverse GOP and softening on social issues.
Instead, Donald Trump went the opposite direction. His hard line on immigration and elevation of the radical wing of his party doubled down on the faults the autopsy reported.
Elise Stefanik went through the same transformation as her party. She has moved from moderate positions to the MAGA wing of her party. Initially skeptical of Trump, she was a member of the House intelligence committee when she first defended him.
Now, she hopes to become his Vice President and continue her rise through the Republican ranks. She opposes abortion except in specific cases. Stefanik could offer Trump a path to partially bridge the gap with female voters.
Best Sleepers For A Republican VP Candidate
The best sleepers for a Republican VP candidate are Katie Britt and Marco Rubio.
Katie Britt is another rising star in the Republican Party. She gave the rebuttal to Joe Biden’s state of the union address in 2024 and has risen through the ranks quickly.
Britt was also one of nine Republicans to change their vote on April’s major foreign aid package. She can maneuver politically and matches Trump’s MAGA ideology. With more tact than the former president, she could make a complementary Vice President, especially if Britt remains subservient to Trump.
Another interesting option is Marco Rubio. He was one of the other Republicans to vote to move April’s foreign aid through. Although he campaigned against Trump, Rubio did not challenge him in 2020.
He has also defended Trump publicly on a range of issues, from disparaging comments about NATO to presidential immunity from prosecution. A skilled senator and governor, Rubio would add legislative experience and a diplomatic element to boost Trump’s US election betting odds.
Among the dark horse candidates, Rubio is the more likely option. Britt’s rise is impressive, but her lampooned State of the Union response may not play well to Trump, who cares deeply about media image.
2024 Republican VP Predictions And Betting Picks
I’ll shoot straight, the best picks for the Republican vice presidential slot are Elise Stefanik and Marco Rubio. Picking two candidates is the smart political betting strategy when the odds for everyone are so high.
Elise Stefanik has the best chance of swinging urban women to vote for Trump, which will be crucial in the general election. Given Trump’s multiple trials, and Roe v. Wade overturn, he needs a vice president who can make inroads with women.
However, Marco Rubio also has a reputation as a moderate compared to other senators like Tom Cotton or Kristi Noem. Whether his 2022 support for a federal 15-week abortion ban bill will alienate too many voters in the general election remains unclear.
The Vice President gambling odds for both candidates are fantastic, allowing you to comfortably back both and get high return if Trump does pick Stefanik or Rubio.
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