NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 7: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +600 (Celtics vs. Magic)

If you’re targeting a first basket scorer in Friday night’s Celtics vs. Magic tilt, Paolo Banchero jumps off the board at +600. Orlando has been flawless in the jump ball, going 8-for-8 to start the season. That edge alone makes their primary scoring option a strong play to open the game.

Paolo Banchero at WAS🪄 pic.twitter.com/F8Ws6MMnOq

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) November 2, 2025

Banchero is averaging 23.1 points per game on 44.6% shooting, and he leads the team in field goal attempts with 16.3 per outing. He’s dangerous from mid-range, can knock down threes, and is active on the glass, giving him multiple paths to a quick bucket. Whether it’s off the opening set or a second-chance opportunity, Banchero is well-positioned to cash early.

With Orlando’s jump ball dominance and Banchero’s usage, the +600 line offers solid value. He’s a top-tier option among Friday’s first basket picks.

Stephon Castle +750 (Rockets vs. Spurs)

In Friday’s Rockets vs. Spurs matchup, the tip-off trends point clearly toward San Antonio. With Victor Wembanyama dominating the circle, the Spurs have won 85.7 percent of jump balls this season. The Rockets, by contrast, are lagging behind at just 42.9 percent, setting the stage for San Antonio to control the game’s first possession.

OH MY GOODNESS, STEPHON CASTLE 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/cv7vRUzy1J

— NBA (@NBA) October 18, 2025

While Wembanyama is the obvious first basket candidate, the better value lies with Stephon Castle at +750. The guard has come out firing, averaging 19.4 points on a sharp 51.8 percent from the field. He’s been efficient, assertive and opportunistic, capitalizing on early touches and making his presence felt immediately.

Given San Antonio’s jump ball edge and Castle’s current form, the +750 number is too good to ignore. He’s getting the volume and making it count, which makes him one of the sneakiest first scorer plays on the Friday slate.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +390 (Thunder vs. Kings)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands out as a strong first basket bet at +390 in Friday’s Thunder vs. Kings showdown. The edge starts with the jump ball, where Sacramento has been abysmal this season, winning just 12.5 percent of opening tips. That glaring weakness likely hands Oklahoma City the first possession, and with it, the first shot at points.

SGA is the clear engine of the Thunder offense, averaging 33.3 points per game while shooting a blistering 51.5 percent from the field. He leads the team with 21.8 field goal attempts per night and wastes no time getting into rhythm.

⭐️ HISTORY FOR OKC'S STAR GUARD ⭐️

SGA has recorded 80 consecutive games with at least 20 points. He passes Oscar Robertson for the third-longest streak in NBA history! pic.twitter.com/lk6j1GtHDF

— NBA (@NBA) November 5, 2025

With OKC positioned to strike first and Gilgeous-Alexander operating at an elite level, the +390 price offers real value for bettors looking to cash early. He’s not just the Thunder’s best player, he’s one of the best first basket options on the slate.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.