NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 3: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Lauri Markkanen +500 (Jazz vs. Celtics)

Lauri Markkanen is firmly in the first basket conversation tonight when the Jazz visit Boston. Utah comes into this one with the highest tip-off win rate in the league at 83.3%, largely thanks to Jusuf Nurkic’s dominance at the jump. That gives the Jazz a real chance to control the first possession, and Markkanen is the most likely beneficiary.

Nothing but net!

Lauri Markkanen scores 23 in the 1H for Utah 🫡

Watch on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/DlUfDNQJwq pic.twitter.com/P7iYDw72IO

— NBA (@NBA) November 3, 2025

He leads the team in first field goal attempts by a wide margin, accounting for 40% of Utah’s initial looks. The offensive workload has been heavy for the Finnish forward, and he’s delivered with 33 points per game on 48.9% shooting.

He’s also launching over 21 shots a night, showing no hesitation to fire early and often. At +500, Markkanen checks every box for a high-upside first basket play. With the tip advantage and his aggressive usage, he’s a sharp bet to cash early.

Shaedon Sharpe +650 (Lakers vs. Trail Blazers)

Shaedon Sharpe offers real value in the first scorer market when the Trail Blazers host the Lakers on Monday night. Portland has a clear edge at center court, entering with an 83.3% win rate on jump balls compared to the Lakers’ flat 50%. That sets the stage for the Blazers to control the first possession, and Sharpe to strike early.

Shaedon Sharpe has 10 points in 10 minutes anddd he's 4/6 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/TliUVP6MSA

— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) November 1, 2025

The 22-year-old has been assertive to start games, averaging 17.3 points on 17.2 shot attempts per night. He’s stepped up as a go-to scoring option and isn’t shy about pulling the trigger when the ball finds him early. If Portland wins the tip, Sharpe is the most likely option to get the offense rolling.

At +650, the odds are more than fair considering the Blazers’ tip dominance and Sharpe’s early usage. He’s one of the sharper longshot first scorer bets on the board tonight.

Bam Adebayo +500 (Heat vs. Clippers)

Bam Adebayo is well-positioned to cash a first scorer ticket tonight as the Heat square off with the Clippers. LA haven’t won a single jump ball this season, sitting at a brutal 0% success rate. Even with Miami clocking in at 40%, they’re heavy favorites to control the opening possession in this one.

BAM WENT UP FOR THIS SLAM pic.twitter.com/0pWkZNWXzT

— Heat Clips 🎬 (@MiamiClip) November 3, 2025

That early edge swings the door wide open for Adebayo, who’s been consistently assertive on offense. He’s averaging 23 points per game on 43.3% shooting and has dropped 26, 31, and 17 in his last three outings. The Heat center is getting his touches early and isn’t shying away from taking the first look when the ball is in his hands.

At +500, the odds offer solid value given the matchup advantage and Adebayo’s recent scoring rhythm. He’s a sharp play to open the scoring on Monday night.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.