With the final Grand Tour of the year underway, the 2025 Vuelta a España odds continue change after every stage. Tour de France winner Tadej Pogacar isn’t participating, so the door is open for a competitive race in Spain.
Who is the odds-on favorite to win and the best bet to take home the crystal plate? Check out the latest prices, analysis of the favorites, and my Vuelta a España predictions!
Vuelta a España 2025 Odds
Here are the updated Vuelta a España winner odds, courtesy of BetOnline:
| CYCLIST | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jonas Vingegaard | -400 |
| Joao Almeida | +500 |
| Juan Ayuso | +1100 |
| Giulio Ciccone | +1600 |
| Jai Hindley | +2800 |
| Egan Bernal | +3300 |
| Matteo Jorgenson | +3300 |
| David Gaudu | +4000 |
Jonas Vingegaard (-400) remains the odds-on favorite to win the 2025 Vuelta a España. With the lead and a stage win under his belt, Vingegaard has an 80% implied probability to win in Spain. Without Pogacar in the field, Vingegaard has assumed the top spot at the best cycling betting sites.
Joao Almeida (+500) is doing his best to make this a competitive race, but he hasn’t been able to make any meaningful gains. The 27-year-old teammate of Pogacar entered the race with +550 odds, so he’s made a small improvement to +500.
However, Almeida faces long odds to win the Vuelta a España, with only a 16.7% implied probability. Aside from Almeida and Vingegaard, the rest of the field has a bleak chance. Juan Ayuso (+1100) checks in with the third-best odds at just an 8.3% chance. His price has regressed drastically from +550.
In short, oddsmakers have this race down to Vingegaard and Almeida, with the Dane rider firmly ahead.
Find up-to-date Vuelta a España odds at BetOnline by navigating to Sports > Cycling > Vuelta a España.
Vuelta a España 2025 Route and Key Info
The 2025 Vuelta a España is scheduled to feature 176 riders across 21 teams. UCI WorldTeams and the two highest-ranked UCI ProTeams from last year receive an automatic invitation.
Additionally, organizers of the race can invite wildcard teams from the top 40 rankings. Teams will then select which cyclists will participate to represent their organization.
Vuelta a España 2025 Dates
The Vuelta a España consists of 21 stages over 23 days from August 23, 2025, to September 14, 2025. There are two rest days, with the rest of the event dedicated to racing.
Vuelta a España 2025 Route
The official race route covers a total of 1,958 miles (3151 km). The opening four stages are in Italy, before a brief stay in France for the Stage 5 time-trial. Stage 6 will mark the beginning of the peloton’s trek in Spain, from Olot to the finish line in Madrid.
The race includes four flat, six medium mountain, five mountain, one time trial, and three hilly stages. The longest stage of the phase is a difficult Stage 13 mountain stage, which lasts 125.5 miles (202 km).
Mountain stages include trips to Aviles, Cabezon de la Sal, L’Angliru, Bilbao, Robledo de Chavela, and Bola del Mundo. Puerto de Navacerrada, among other famous destinations.
In the final stage, riders will travel 62.7 miles (101 km) from Alapardo to Madrid, where a new champion will be crowned on September 14.+
Vuelta a España 2025 Prize Pool
The Vuelta a España prize pool in 2025 is set for a €1.1 million purse, with the winner collecting €150,000.
Vuelta a España 2025 Favorites
Following Stage 4 of the Vuelta a España, there are two favorites to consider on the board. With Ayuso dropping out of favor, let’s break down Vingegaard and Almeida:
Jonas Vingegaard (-400)
There is only one rider in the UCI WorldTour that can compete with Vingegaard, and he isn’t in this race. Fresh off the win in the Tour de France, Pogacar is taking some time off. These two are so ahead of the field that the Tour de France felt like a heads-up race.
Despite finishing second behind Pogacar, Vingegaard had a productive race across France. He finished in the top 5 in eight stages and was the runner-up in four. Overall, the 28-year-old Danish cyclist was second in the mountain and general classification.
In Vingegaard’s last two races, he was the runner-up behind Pogacar. He did the same in the Criterium du Dauphine, with Vingegaard failing to overtake the untouchable Slovenian. In February, Vingegaard was victorious in the Volta ao Algarve em Bicicleta, naturally, without Pogacar in the field.
What a recovery from Jonas 👊
Jonas Vingegaard got up from a crash with about 27km to go and went on to win Stage 2 of the Vuelta a España in a sprint finish, taking the overall lead in the process.
_______
🇪🇸 #LaVuelta25 pic.twitter.com/N7wEpD9AGl— Velon CC (@VelonCC) August 24, 2025
Vingegaard is off to a strong showing through Stage 4 of the Vuelta a España. He won Stage 2 after taking a spill in the rain and then had a spirited effort in Stage 3 to finish third. Despite following up in 42nd in Stage 4 to lose the red jersey to David Gaudu, Vingegaard is in control of the race.
I was anticipating Vingegaard being a much heavier favorite in the absence of Pogacar. He is a fantastic mountain climber and has been very solid in time trials, so the route in the Vuelta a España sets up beautifully for him! At -400, Vingegaard remains the clear rider to beat.
Joao Almeida (+500)
With Pogacar out of the race for UAE Team Emirates, the excitement should be high between Ayuso and Almeida! They want the honor of being the No. 2 behind Pogacar, which hasn’t been completely clear this season.
Almeida has had strong claims to be the rider behind Pogacar in the pecking order. And, so far, he has the advantage over Ayuso in the Vuelta a Espana.
Confirmed: Tadej Pogacar will NOT ride this year's Vuelta a Espana. Joao Almeida and Juan Ayuso will share leadership of UAE Team Emirates so the drama is guaranteed. 🍿#LaVuelta25 pic.twitter.com/T0u1pinv6P
— Mihai Simion (@faustocoppi60) July 29, 2025
Although Almeida hasn’t beaten Pogacar or Vingegaard this season, he has won three of his previous four events. Leading into the Tour de France, Almeida captured the Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie, and Tour de Suisse. He’s reliable in the six to eight-stage races, but three-week Grand Tours haven’t been a high point.
In the Vuelta a Espana, Almeida was at his best in Stage 2 with a fifth place effort. He regressed to 28th and 44th in the next two stages, but Almeida remains within reach of Vingegaard and Gaudu at the moment. I don’t anticipate Almeida pulling it off, but he is winning the battle over Ayuso!
Almeida is a valuable asset for UAE Team Emirates, though he isn’t up to the standard of Vingegaard. He is making solid claims that he is the second-best behind Pogacar on the team, though.
In 2024, Almeida had a brutal effort in the Vuelta a España to drop out ahead of Stage 3. Aside from finishing third in Stage 3, Almeida was well behind the competition. Through Stage 4 in 2025, he’s having a much stronger rider in Spain.
Vuelta a España 2025 Longshot Bets
Although Vingegaard and Almeida are heavily ahead of the rest of the competition, there are two longshots worth considering for small bets.
A major accident can quickly wipe out the contenders, so let’s evaluate the top longshot Vuelta a España betting picks:
Vuelta a España 2025 Predictions and Betting Pick
As long as Vingegaard avoids a major crash or another big issue, he should cruise to a win in the Vuelta a España. It’s difficult to see where the pressure is going to come from without Pogacar in the field. Despite losing the red jersey and the overall lead in Stage 4, expect Vingegaard to come back strong.
When the race reaches the toughest stages, Vingegaard is likely going to be the one to watch edge ahead from his foes. There aren’t many riders in this field who can ride in top form in a Grand Tour across three weeks. In other words, I am confident in Vingegaard, and his odds jumping from -250 to -400 indicate that the public believes so, too.
You might want to argue that the favorite might be depleted after riding in the Tour de France.
I see things differently, though. Vingegaard has never entered this race. He’s going to have motivation to win the Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a España at least once in his career to cover all three Grand Tours. The Vuelta a España title is likely to become a reality for Vingegaard on September 14!
In my pre-race assessment, I stated that Vingegaard should have been a -400 favorite. He’s there after four stages, so the value is reduced. However, my original Vuelta a Espana pick remains the same, as Vingegaard remains the most likely winner!
Where to Bet on the Vuelta a España 2025?
The 2025 Vuelta a España winner odds are available at a variety of online bookies. I recommend using BetOnline for competitive odds and lines for each stage of the competition.
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