2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup Knockout Round Odds and Predictions

Womens World Cup Knock Stage

Following the conclusion of a thrilling group stage at this year’s 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, we are now onto the knockout round matches, and there is sure to be plenty of excitement and betting value in the cards for the games spanning between August 5th-8th.

With so many surprising group stage results, it has certainly opened up the draw. The defending Olympic champions from Canada bowed out, as did perennial powerhouse Brazil.

The two-time reigning World Cup champs, the United States, have looked incredibly average, while World Cup sleepers from Japan, Nigeria, Colombia are very much capable of producing another upset as we enter these ‘do-or-die’ fixtures.

With things heating up at a rapid pace, let’s dive into the FIFA Women’s World Cup Knockout Round odds, courtesy of the best Women’s World Cup betting sites, and make our predictions as to which teams will advance to the next round.

Switzerland (+1100) vs. Spain (-300)

Saturday, August 5th

We will let the odds from Bovada do the majority of the talking here for us, as the talented Spaniards are rightfully massive favorites for this opening fixture.

Spain was throttled in their final group stage match to a pesky Japanese side, but with the Spanish squad already qualified for the knockout round, their focus and emphasis on squad rotation explain that result.

The Swiss were undefeated in their opening three matches, actually topping Group A with five points. They are a disciplined side, but really struggle to score. Their strengths lie in solid team structure and defense, as they didn’t concede a single goal in the group stage.

They will receive a stiff test from Spain as the Spanish attack is one of the most creative in women’s soccer right now. Alexia Putellas has been dynamic thus far at the World Cup, and has a real ability to break down any defense.

Expect Spain to control possession and their crafty passing to unlock a Swiss backline that has yet to see this type of skill. With Switzerland forced to chase the game, it’ll force this side into playing in a manner they simply aren’t used to, allowing Spain to pile on. Backing the Spaniards -1.5 around +105 is our best bet at soccer betting sites.

The Bet
Spain -1.5

Japan (-125) vs. Norway (+375)

Saturday, August 5th

Japan has dominated the competition so far at this year’s World Cup, and enter the knockout round feeling great about their game in all areas. Fresh off a 4-0 shellacking of Spain, the Japanese should be able to bring the same momentum and energy to overwhelm a mediocre Norwegian side.

Norway narrowly squeaked through a weakened Group A to be here. In fact, they tied on points with the hosts New Zealand, but prevailed on goal difference. While high hopes were had for this veteran side, they lack the talent or pace to stick with a pesky side like the Japanese.

Japan’s counter-attack and relentless approach to pursuing the ball will be too much to handle for a Norway side that struggles to retain possession.

The attacking trio of Hanata Miyazawa, Mina Tanaka, and Riko Ueki, has proven to be one of the best at this tournament to date, and should find goals against a sluggish Norwegian defense. Take the Japanese to close this one out inside 90 minutes.

The Bet

Sweden (+350) vs. USA (-125)

Saturday, August 5th

The final round of 16 match across a loaded Saturday slate sees a struggling USA squad facing some real doubt. Across their three group stage matches, this talented side has shown very little of the burst, energy, or talent that has characterized this program over the past few decades.

Against Vietnam in their opener, their offense looked out of sync. That carried over to a dismal showing against the Netherlands, finishing in a 1-1 draw. In their final group stage match against Portugal, they were saved by the post in the waning minutes of that scoreless encounter to squeak into the round of 16.

Their play has not been encouraging to date, but you have to think this talented group simply has more to offer going forward.

The Swedes won’t be easy opposition and this veteran side has to be feeling somewhat disrespected by the odds given their dominant showing in the group stage.

This generation is incredibly familiar with the USA at the World Cup and will be looking to spoil the American quest for a three-peat. The Swedes have enjoyed three routine victories, highlighting their cohesion, scoring ability, and organization.

Head coach Peter Gerhardsson has a battle-tested group who won’t be intimidated by the skills of the Americans. The American defense has conceded far too many chances through three games and Sweden’s accomplished attacking trio of Stina Blackstenius, Kosovare Asllani and Fridolina Rolfo can certainly make the Americans pay.

Ultimately. expect the Americans to put forth their best showing of the tournament. Sophia Smith and Alex Morgan remain two of the best players in the world, and should overwhelm Sweden’s aging backline.

This American group has raised their game consistently when the matches matter most, but the peskiness of this Swedish side won’t go down lightly. I’d expect both sides to find the back of the net, and this match to actually end in a draw after 90 minutes, following a real back-and-forth affair.

In terms of extra-time and perhaps penalties, I give the edge to the Swedes, likely facing less pressure and a talented keeper.

The Bet
Sweden/USA Draw (after 90 minutes)

Netherlands (-450) vs. South Africa (+900)

Sunday, August 6th

One of the biggest surprises from the group stage was the play of this upstart South African side. They finished second in their group to an unmatched Swedish squad, and were the only team to truly test them. Their pace and surprising scoring ability dismantled Italy, and though their defense leaves a lot to be desired, there is enough excitement to consider an upset.

With that said, they will be taking on one of the most in-form squads from the tournament so far in the Netherlands. The Dutch are a veteran side, loaded with skill and talent, and know what it takes to win these types of competitions.

They arguably outplayed the United States in their group stage encounter, and showed their scoring might with a 7-0 crushing over Vietnam a few days ago.

Expect that trend to continue in a big way, here in the round of 16. Although South Africa certainly can surprise, the Dutch won’t be caught off-guard by them with plenty of time to prepare.

The African side struggles mightily without the ball, and their fast-paced counter won’t trouble a sturdy Dutch defense. Jill Roord will spearhead their offense, and the talented striker is making her case for the Golden Boot, already with three goals this tournament.

Look for the Dutch to control the ball and the bulk of possession. South Africa will try to quick-strike on the counter, but this Netherlands squad is too crafty, and too talented in the final third.

It’s been a great run for an emerging South African side, but look for the Dutch to bring them back to reality on Sunday. Backing the Netherlands -1.5 at sports betting sites, is the top play for this round of 16 matchup.

The Bet
Netherlands -1.5

England (-300) vs. Nigeria (+850)

Monday, August 7th

Nigeria was certainly a surprise squad to emerge from a competitive Group B, though Canada’s shocking futility was their gain. This Nigerian side blitzed Australia just one week ago, overwhelming them with exceptional pace and quick counters.

The English are about as sturdy at the back as any side left in this year’s World Cup. In goal, Mary Earps has been an absolute brick wall conceding only one goal to date, via a penalty against China.

The Lionesses have it all: a deep roster, loaded with experience, and some excellent finishing up top. Lauren James has been England’s top scorer with three tallies thus far, and her blend of size, speed, and physicality will be a tough matchup for a weak and disorganized Nigerian back-line.

Expect the Nigerians to really have a go at this English side, opposed to sitting back in a low block and defending for 90 minutes. It simply is not their style. However, England is talented enough to expose any style.

With the Nigerians pushing forward, look for this talented Lionesses squad to completely catch them napping in transition. England has dominant ball distributors in the midfield and are too steady within their defense to get scored on.

Nigeria will quickly realize this English side doesn’t have the holes Australia did. You can expect a convincing English victory. If you’re looking for added value, I think backing ‘Both Teams to Score’ in this fixture could be a good call, but England -1.5 around -105 odds is our official selection.

Pick: England -1.5 (-105)

The Bet
England -1.5

Australia (-120) vs. Denmark (+350)

Monday, August 7th

It was a bumpy ride for the Australians throughout their group stage, but a resounding 4-0 victory over Canada earned them top place in Group B.

One of the big reasons why the Matildas slumbered their way through the group stage, was the absence of their top player and scorer, Sam Kerr.

Kerr has been battling a nagging calf injury, but by all accounts, she’ll finally be ready to go and lead the team up front for Australia on Monday. Head coach Tony Gustavsson has confirmed as much in training and, with Kerr back, expect the Australian offense to become much more dangerous.

Their Danish opponents won’t back down though, as they enter the knockout round sporting an impressive defensive record. This is a pesky group that only conceded one goal from their first three group stage matches. Midfielder Pernille Harder has emerged as one of the best ball-winners and tacklers in this tournament.

The Danes lack the same depth or firepower of the Australians, but their organization, structure, and cohesion will be able to contain a Matildas group that has seen some holes exposed of late.

Even with Kerr back, this Danish defense is formidable and won’t concede easily. You also have to wonder just how healthy and in-form the talented striker will be for this key clash.

Look for a cagey affair and a goalless Draw after 90 minutes seems likely given the Danes’ trouble with finishing. In extra time and penalties, it’s anyone’s guess. However, don’t be surprised if this emerging Danish side spoils the party in Australia!

The Bet
Draw (after 90 minutes)

Colombia (+100) vs. Jamaica (+300)

Tuesday, August 8th

Both of these teams are surprise qualifiers for the knockout stage, but don’t confuse that with a lack of talent. Jamaica and Colombia possess a wealth of pace, offensive firepower, and creativity. Goals should definitely be in store for this round of 16 clash.

The Colombian attack created a wealth of expected goals across their three group stage matches with talented forward Linda Caicedo leading the attack. The 18-year-old has invigorated the Colombian offense with her excellent striking and crafty dribbling.

This squad won’t be intimidated by anyone, as Colombia arguably pulled off the upset of the tournament, knocking out Germany with a 2-1 defeat. It was a match where Colombia showed their resilience and willingness to engage in physicality against a bigger and more experienced opponent.

With that said, the Colombians will receive a firm test from Jamaica, who played uneventful, but effective games in their group stage matches. The Jamaicans scored just one goal in three games, but didn’t allow a single tally.

That includes games against offensive powerhouses France and Brazil. As a result, a sturdy Jamaican roster has surprisingly found a way to the group stage.

In order to advance, the Jamaicans need to find the net. Although Colombia does have some defensive deficiencies, it’s clear this Jamaican squad does not possess the offensive finishing talent to find the back of the net.

While their defenders are solid, and the group plays with excellent cohesion and structure, so does this Colombian side. Expect the Colombians to control the ball, while Jamaica might sit back and hope for penalties.

That will allow the talented striking tandem of Caicedo and Usme to find the net. Look for the Colombians to prevail inside 90 minutes.

The Bet

France (-600) vs. Morocco (+1400)

Tuesday, August 8th

While it was certainly quite the spectacle to see the faces and emotions of the Moroccan team mere moments after qualifying through the group stage over Germany, the party should come to a crashing thud in the Round of 16 vs. France.

Les Bleus currently enter in excellent form and Herve Renard’s side appear to be the squad to beat. This was my pre-tournament selection to hoist the World Cup trophy on August 20th, and they have lived up to their lofty expectations thus far.

France have been absolutely solid in defense, with excellent goaltending and off-ball organization. Captain Wendie Renard is now fully fit and played a key role in the 2-1 French victory over Brazil. Up front, Kadidiatou Diani scored a hat-trick in her last match and her blend of pace and shooting ability make her a threat to strike anywhere within 30 yards.

The depth of this French side is going to swarm and overwhelm a Moroccan side that have already far exceeded their expectations. There isn’t one Moroccan player that would feature in this French squad, and with a -4 goal differential, this is certainly a group that has to feel quite fortunate to be here.

They were throttled by Germany 6-0 in their opener. Although they squeaked out narrow 1-0 victories against both South Korea and Colombia, the Moroccans didn’t show well in either match in terms of expected goals and shots on target.

Expect France to cleanly and comfortably take care of business to close out the Round of 16. Backing them to lead at half-time, and win in full-time at -180 odds, seems to be the best bet. Look for Les Bleus to score early and often in this clash.

The Bet
France Half-Time/Full-Time
About the Author
Will Salvarinas profile picture
Will Salvarinas
Content Writer
Blog and News
Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist providing top-notch analysis on the World Cup and European Championships. Over the years, he’s expanded his coverage to include other major sports like the NFL, NHL and MLB. As an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, Salvarinas is always eager to share his insight or get into a healthy debate over what bets to make.

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