Betting on Politics was really never that big of a deal, with usually only the quadrennial US Presidential elections being the only betting option at select sportsbooks.
This was largely due to the US prohibiting wagering on politics.
However, after the surprise in the 2016 election where Donald Trump [R] pulled off the biggest upset in US history by beating Hillary Clinton [D], political betting surged in popularity.
Additionally, the spread of legal online gambling in the US has also led to a boom in betting on politics.
Due to the complexity of Midterm Elections, The Sports Geek has crafted a handy bettor’s guide to wagering on this political event.
Keep reading our Midterm Elections betting guide where we answer some common questions and breakdown the major prop bets.
What are the Midterm Elections?
The 2022 Midterm Elections are a number of individual elections all held on the second Tuesday in November. In this 2022 Midterm election, 35 of the 100 seats in the US Senate will be contested with all 100 seats in the US House of Representatives up for grabs.
6 more days until midterm elections! Are you #VoteReady? Visit https://t.co/InZA9pVYm5 to make sure you’re registered and ready to have your voice heard!
— VoteGov (@VoteGov) November 2, 2022
There will also be state and local elections held in this 2022 Midterm, with 36 of the 50 US states having gubernatorial elections as well as three US territories. There are 31 incumbent Governors who will be running for re-election on Election Day.
Midterm Election Polls: The House and Senate
The US House of Representatives in the 117th Congress is currently controlled by the Democrats, with a 220-212 majority with three seats vacated. The Republicans are expected to win the House on Election Day, with -3000 betting odds that they will win
FiveThirtyEight gives the Elephants an 80% chance of ending with 213 to 247 seats in the House, and BetOnline has a nice Props where you can pick in what range the anticipated majority will be for the Republicans when all of the dust and dangling chads settle.
The polls and the betting odds have all shown a slight shift toward the Republicans, despite the Democrats’ positives. Since June 1 (86%-win chance), the GOP has maintained its over 80% probability (83%), so this one seems to have been over before it even started.
The US Senate in this 117th Congress is now currently broken down with 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 Independents who both caucus with the Democrats. They are Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
FiveThirtyEight had a “dead heat” (50/50) on November 1, just a week out from the Election, so this will be one of the biggest and most important races on Election Day. The biggest individual State races that may determine the balance are Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, and winning two of those three states may be the key next Tuesday.
And Democrat Catherine Cortez-Mastro is given a 54% chance to win in Nevada over Adam Laxalt, who is the big betting favorite at -300. Expect the Democrats to win the Senate seats in Arizona (Kelly) and New Hampshire (Hassan) on 2022 Election Day with the Republicans winning in North Carolina (Budd), Ohio (Vance), and Wisconsin (Johnson). Georgia and Nevada may be the difference(s).
How to Vote in the Midterm Elections
Most states offer simple online voting registration as well as registering to vote in person. States will mail a ballot to registered voters a couple of weeks before Elections. Typically, early voting is offered for those who want to avoid potential lines on Election Day.
Today is the day to #VoteEarly! Have your voice heard. https://t.co/3xN994wtys
— VoteGov (@VoteGov) October 28, 2022
Another option is to register to vote using the USA.gov register-to vote link. Voters can also mail in absentee ballots or put in a drop-box early and avoid any stress of worrying about having to do it on Tuesday, November 8 before the polls close.
Absentee voting allows you to vote by mail before Election Day or return your ballot to drop boxes in some states. Check your options here: https://t.co/YufUWIl3Xv #VoteEarly
— VoteGov (@VoteGov) October 28, 2022
2022 Midterm Elections Betting Odds
Check out our midterm elections predictions via the following politics betting odds, which are courtesy of BetOnline:
Who Will Control the House of Representatives in 2022?
Many political outlets have the Republicans with 212 “Solid, Likely, Lean, and Tilt” seats going their way with the Democrats having 205 “Solid, Likely, Lean, and Tilt” seats. They projected 18 seats as Toss-ups with many in rural New York, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico.
The Democrats (9/1) would need a miracle to win the House this Election, and it is simply a matter of how many seats they end up with. Betting $3,000 to win $100 seems silly but consider the actual situation. There are no “locks” in Political or sports betting, but the GOP will win the House.
Size of Republican Majority in House of Representatives
A Red Wave may leave the Republicans with 220 to 230 of the 435 seats in the House with the Democrats possibly looking at a range of 205 to 215. If the Democrats do somehow end up with just 200 seats and the Republicans with 235, that’s still just a 35-seat difference.
Election Day 2022 may be a strong day for the republicans, but things seldom end up going to extremes. Conventional wisdom says that anything over 35 just seems too high and would mean the Republicans would need extremes in a country that is really split down the middle.
Total Democrat Seats in House of Representatives
| Seats | Odds |
| Under 190 | +215 |
| 190-199 | +225 |
| 200-209 | +250 |
| 210-219 | +450 |
| 220-229 | +1000 |
| 230 or more | +4000 |
Political outlets currently have the Republicans projected to win 187 “solid” seats with the Democrats getting 169 “solid” seats, so it’s the 79 seats in the middle that are the focus. CNN Politics says 25 are Likely or Lean GOP, with 5 more “Tilted” that way. That’s 212 before the 18 “Toss-ups.”
The Democrats have 9 Likely, 12 Lean, and 15 Tilt, so that’s 205 before those 16 Toss-up seats. No matter how strong the Red Wave is, it’s hard to imagine the Donkeys having less than 200 seats in the House of Representatives when all the votes are counted up next week.
Total Democrat Seats in House of Reps Prediction: 190-199 (+225)
Who will control the Senate?
This will be the most intriguing question on 2022 Election Day. Can the Republicans gain control of the Senate and potentially control the Congress?
It will all likely come down to the Georgia and Nevada races. If Walker and Laxalt win, it’s likely “game over” for the Democrats.
