The Australian Open 2026 Final odds for the clash between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are out! The bookies heavily favor the 22-year-old Spaniard over the 38-year-old Serb for Sunday’s final on February 1, 2026.
After two epic semifinals, the final pits Alcaraz, looking for his first Australian Open title and a career Grand Slam, against Djokovic, who seeks a record-breaking 25th slam title. I dive into this head-to-head matchup, the betting odds, and both players’ path to the final before sharing my ATP 2026 Australian Open Final prediction.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Betting Odds (Men’s Australian Open Final)
Here are the betting odds for the Australian Open Final 2026 between Alcaraz and Djokovic.
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alcaraz to win | -325 |
| Djokovic to win | +260 |
| Over 38.5 Games | -115 |
| Under 38.5 Games | -115 |
The Australian Open Final odds make Alcaraz a commanding -325 favorite on the moneyline, with the top tennis online sportsbooks giving him an implied probability of 76.47% to win. Djokovic backers see a heftier return at +260, resulting in just a 27.78% implied probability. Both the Over and Under on 38.5 total games, come in at -115 odds, while the odds on there being at least four sets comes in at -185.
To follow along and make your own Australian Open best bets, visit Bovada and navigate to Sports >>> Tennis >>> Game Lines >>> Australian Open.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic H2H Stats
In nine all-time meetings, the head-to-head Alcaraz vs. Djokovic results see Djokovic ahead at 5-4. They’ve played twice in each of the past two seasons and both players have won once each year. Last year, Djokovic won 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4 in the Australian Open quarterfinals, and Alcaraz won 6-4 7-6(4) 6-2 in the US Open semis.
These players always meet up at the biggest stage with all nine of their matches taking place either at a Grand Slam, Masters 1000, ATP Final, or the Olympics. On top of that, eight of their nine matches have been at a semifinals or final level, with last year’s meeting in the quarters in this event being the only outlier.
Alcaraz won their last hardcourt match at the US Open, but Djokovic leads 3-1 on the surface overall.
Alcaraz — Career Grand Slam on the Cards
Alcaraz won two slams last year, and he’s won four of the past seven, giving him six career slam titles. But, he’s yet to win in Australia to complete the “career Grand Slam” achievement. That feat can be achieved with one more win on Sunday.
The Spaniard lost to Yannick Sinner in the ATP Final in November, changed his coach, and started 2026 with five straight wins without dropping a set in Australia. That changed in the semifinals where he went the distance in five sets versus Alexander Zverev to get the win. He’s now 10-1 in his last 11 matches.
In a match that went well over five hours, the first semifinal saw Alcaraz defeat Zverev 6-4 7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-7(4) 7-5. At five hours and 27 minutes, it was the third-longest match in Australian Open history.
Alcaraz took set one. Then Zverev went up 5-2 in the second set, but Alcaraz fought back and won in a tiebreaker. While it looked like the match may not last past three sets, the third set saw Alcaraz suffer from cramping, receive a controversial medial timeout, twice throw up into his towel, and start to slow down.
Zverev took set three in a tiebreaker to get back in it. In set four, it almost looked like Alcaraz was about to retire, but he instead hung in, only to see Zverev take another set in yet another tiebreaker. In the fifth set, with the heat finally subsiding, Zverev found himself up 5-3, but Alcaraz fought back to win 7-5.
The Spaniard’s confidence will be sky-high after such a dramatic victory, and he’s a deserving favorite. However, his energy levels could be a bit down, opening the door to Djokovic to be more competitive than the bookies expect.
Djokovic — 1 Win Away From 25th Slam Title
Djokovic has been sitting on 24 Grand Slam titles for some time now (18 months), and time is running out to break a record he holds with Margarot Court for the most slam titles in tennis history for a man or woman.
Djokovic came into the Australian Open having not played since winning the Hellenic Championship in November. He withdrew from the ATP Finals with a shoulder injury and sat out opening season tournaments before heading Down Under.
His opening three rounds in Australia were straightforward, straight sets wins in 11, 11, and 6 games. Then things started to get interesting. He received a walkover in the Round of 16 against Jakub Mensik. In the quarterfinals, down two sets to Lorenzo Musetti, the Italian was also forced to retire with a leg injury.
That set up a semifinal against Sinner, whom Djokovic had lost his previous five matches against. But down 1-0 and 2-1 in sets, Djokovic fought back in a semifinal that took over four hours to emerge victorious 3-6 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4.
A big story from that match saw Sinner produce 26 aces, but be outrageously poor in converting break points. He was 2/18 overall and in the fifth set alone went 0/8, plus 0/3 in a triple break spot at 4-3.
The win makes Djokovic the oldest men’s finalist in Australian Open history, as he gets ready for his 11th Aussie Open final. I would normally expect Alcaraz to be much fresher, but the two walkovers that Djokovic faced and the Spaniard’s marathon against Zverev suggest that won’t be the case.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic Prediction and Betting Pick
No matter the outcome, a record will be set on Sunday. Either Djokovic earns title No. 25 and becomes the oldest men’s Grand Slam winner, or Alcaraz becomes the youngest winner of all four slams.
While this is Alcaraz’s first Aussie Open final, no one has more experience at this stage than Djokovic. The Serbian is a perfect 10-0 when reaching the final stage in Melbourne.
The big question will be who recovers quicker from their marathon semifinal? Alcaraz’s match went longer, but he played first and is younger, yet clearly physically struggled more.
Djokovic played in a grueling long match as well, with a shorter turnaround time. He didn’t have to deal with as harsh of conditions, and benefitted from two opponents retiring on his path to the final. He’s also 16 years Alcaraz’s senior.
If you think we’re in store for another drawn-out thriller there are a few Australian Open picks to consider. Betting on a five-set match of over 4.5 sets would pay out at +225 odds. A safer option could be to back over 4 sets at +130.
Still, Alcaraz has proved dependable when matches stretch long, having now won 15 of his last 16 five-set matches. So for my Australian Open prediction, I’ll combine those options and choose Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set at +120 odds.
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