F1 Championship 2026 Betting Preview: Predictions, Odds, & Best Bets

F1 World Drivers’ Championship Winner Odds

After the second week of Bahrain pre-season testing, George Russell (+200) remains the favorite to win the F1’ Drivers Championship. Per the latest odds, Russell has a 33.3% implied probability to win the first drivers’ title of his career.

With Pirelli testing cancelled in Bahrain due to the conflict in the Middle East, there is unlikely to be any radical chances to the drivers’ title odds before Round 1 in Australia on March 7. The tire test was independent from vehicle testing, so teams won’t miss a week of pre-season work on the new cars.

The Mercedes’ driver is followed in the market by Red Bull’s Max Verstappen at +300, giving him a 25% implied chance to claim his fifth title after last year’s comeback bid fell short. Behind them, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc (+500) and Lewis Hamilton (+650) both saw their F1 Drivers’ Championship odds shorten sharply following the second stint of testing in Bahrain.

Leclerc’s number moved from +1200 to +500, boosting his implied probability from 7.7% to 16.7%. Hamilton, coming off the most frustrating season of his career, improved from +1400 to +650. Public sentiment continues to rise on Hamilton, as his price improved from +700 to +650 over the last week.

At the same time, defending champion Lando Norris has drifted from +700 to +1000, as McLaren faces a tougher path in its attempt to defend the drivers’ crown.

Since the start of pre-season testing, Norris’ odds to win the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Championship has slipped from 12.5% to 9.1%. Seeing Hamilton and Leclerc ahead of the McLaren drivers might come as a surprise to some fans!

F1 World Constructors’ Championship Winner Odds

With the second week of testing wrapped up in Bahrain, Mercedes (+120) remains atop the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship odds at Lucky Rebel. Those odds give Toto Wolff’s team a 45.5% implied chance of claiming their first title since 2021, and their first without Lewis Hamilton. Mercedes’ championship odds have held at +120 after they entered pre-season testing with the same odds.

McLaren swept both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships in 2025, but they aren’t favored to win either crown this season. Still, their strongest opportunity lies in the Constructors’ race. At +250, Zak Brown’s Surrey-based squad has a 36.4% implied chance to go back-to-back.

This is a decrease from before pre-season testing in Bahrain. McLaren entered at +175 and have dropped to +250, representing a 36.4% to 28.6% shift.

Ferrari’s F1 Constructions Championship odds have witnessed a strong boost from +1000 to +250 through pre-season testing. That’s a significant improvement, with a difference in implied probability of 9.1% to 28.6%.

Red Bull sits at +700, underscoring how difficult it’s going to be for Laurent Mekies in his first full season as team principal. Max Verstappen will need meaningful support from young teammate Isack Hadjar, and bettors are far from convinced he’ll get it.

George Russell (+200)

George Russell matched a career-high fourth-place finish in last year’s World Drivers’ Championship, ending the season well ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc with 319 points. His first season with Mercedes in 2022 was widely regarded as his breakout year.

Back in 2021, the Englishman had gone from fighting near the back of the grid with Williams to taking a remarkable fourth place in the standings with Mercedes. Now, four years on, Russell is being tipped to join Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton as the only Mercedes drivers to win a World Drivers’ Championship. The latter, of course, claimed six titles with the team between 2014 and 2020.

Since Hamilton’s controversial defeat to Max Verstappen in Abu Dhabi in 2021, Mercedes has been in a mild rebuilding phase. Hamilton is now looking to reboot his career at Ferrari, while Mercedes appears back in the title picture with Russell emerging as one of the favorites for the World Drivers’ Championship.

Russell is expected to benefit under the new regulations in what looks like a boost for Mercedes. Their power unit is expected to be one of the best in 2026. The W17 has generated a lot of hype in the offseason and Russell is confident that the car will be strong, but caution rivals look good as well.

With Mercedes reportedly finding a loophole in the design of their engine regarding the compression ratio, there has been speculation surrounding if it’s within the rule book.

Nevertheless Ferrari claims they won’t file a dispute, and Red Bull doesn’t appear eager to raise the issue with the FIA before the Australian GP.

There were some mind games being played between Red Bull and Mercedes in Bahrain. Red Bull has routinely stated that Mercedes is ahead of the rest of the grid, while Russell and Mercedes have deflected that attention away.

Considering the spotlight on Mercedes’ engine, I am confident they were sand bagging in the first weekend in Bahrain. They looked much stronger the following week, as Russell recorded the fastest lap during the first day of testing at 1:33.459. Without knowing key details, including fuel loads, it’s a bit trivial putting much stock into these sessions, but Mercedes isn’t slow.

Note that when F1 went to turbo-hybrid power units in 2014, Mercedes was the quickest to adjust and find success. The consensus is that Mercedes will be ahead of their competition in the new 50-50 power split between electric and combustion power. It’s all up for debate at this point, though.

In review, however, at the end of pre-season testing, I am optimistic about Russell’s chances. When Mercedes took some of the training wheels off the car, it was clear to me that they’re the standard. They did a great job at largely concealing their true pace, but it’s obvious Russell is going to be fast.

Max Verstappen (+300)

With all odds to win the World Drivers’ Championship against Verstappen, he was two points away from pulling off the biggest comeback in F1 history. Down by 104 points at the summer break, Verstappen was a Norris incident away at Abu Dhabi from his fifth straight title.

There were multiple times throughout the year that Verstappen said he had zero confidence in a championship bid. Even he surprised himself with the title race going down to the final race of the season. The RB21 and Red Bull turned a corner after team principal Christian Horner was fired in July.

"He is as extraordinary, if not more, outside of the car than in the car"@redbullracing's Laurent Mekies explains what makes Max Verstappen so special in the new 'Securing The Win' podcast series with @1Password 🗣️

You can watch the first episode here: https://t.co/P9myqChbzt pic.twitter.com/tItHRtVRM4

— Autosport (@autosport) October 22, 2025

The energy in the garage was at an all-time low, with Verstappen and Horner drifting further apart. Laurent Mekies was promoted from Racing Bulls to oversee the operation and Verstappen’s car began to show improvement throughout the year. Now, after a full offseason together with Mekies, can they build on that second-half success?

It will be the first year since 2018 that Red Bull hasn’t used a Honda power unit. In collaboration with Ford, Red Bull designed their own in-house RBPT engine for the 2026 season.

The talk around the paddock, including from Russell, is that Red Bull’s engine is impressive. You aren’t going to get much information from Verstappen, but he appears pleased, albeit the four-time champion noted there is lots of work to do. We do know, though, that Verstappen is not happy with the 50-50 split on the engine and likens it to Formula E with energy saving strategies that must be employed.

That’s quintessential Verstappen. He’s never going to hype things up or sound overly optimistic until the results are there, so the fact that he isn’t ranting and raving about how he has no chance to win this season is a positive.

If you give Verstappen a halfway decent car, he’s automatically the driver to beat.

After everything that happened last year, including a new team principal, Verstappen won the most races with eight, most laps led with 454, and 10 consecutive podiums. Also, Verstappen set the F1 record for fastest lap at Monza.

If the RB22’s power unit is anywhere close to Mercedes in terms of pace, Verstappen will be right in the mix for the title. However, he admits that Red Bull isn’t in a position to compete for a win at the Australian GP. Even if that’s true, Verstappen will be consistent throughout the season and the car should see some positive upgrades that benefit the four-time champion.

Charles Leclerc (+500)

Leclerc’s F1 Championship 2026 betting odds have been on fire over the last two weeks. After heading into the second week at +1200 and little faith in Ferrari, public sentiment is way up on the Monegasques driver.

Last season, most of the attention was on Hamilton’s struggles, but Leclerc also failed to fully answer the call for Ferrari. He consistently outperformed his teammate, yet that advantage never materialized into a real push for victories.

Leclerc, now 28, finished fifth in the championship with 242 points. He earned seven podiums, but couldn’t convert any of them into wins, a step back from his three victories the year before. Even so, there’s a growing sense that this season could be different.

Pre-season testing has given Ferrari reason for optimism. Leclerc set the overall fastest lap with a 1:31.99, and sportsbooks reacted, shortening his odds in the F1 Drivers’ Championship market.

Charles ☝️#F1 #F1Testing pic.twitter.com/LPU4pU5jOr

— Formula 1 (@F1) February 20, 2026

Bettors have followed the hype and started backing Leclerc, but is that move justified? Overreacting to pre-season testing is one of the most common mistakes in motorsport betting. Testing can offer a rough picture of the pecking order, but it’s far from enough to base a confident futures bet on.

Ferrari is likely to improve on last year’s frustrating campaign. That doesn’t mean I’m prepared to back Leclerc for the title, though. The odds movement feels more like overexcited Ferrari fans piling in than a signal of genuine betting value. The same applies to Hamilton, who has recently witnessed a surge in his odds to win the F1 Drivers’ Championship in 2026.

Mercedes (+120)

There are no real surprises with Mercedes being favored to win the Constructors’ title. Along with the emergence of George Russell this season, as I’ve already discussed, Kimi Antonelli looks ready to take a big step forward in his second year.

The 19-year-old Italian, hand-picked by Wolff to join Mercedes, should appear far more composed in 2026. We saw flashes of real brilliance from him as a rookie, but inconsistency often held him back. With a full season now behind him, many of those basic mistakes should be ironed out, paving the way for a much more complete campaign.

Russonelli. Season two 🙌 pic.twitter.com/TTN3mNPjlE

— Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team (@MercedesAMGF1) February 12, 2026

I don’t expect Antonelli to outshine Russell, but he will be a quality teammate. Don’t be surprised if Antonelli even wins a couple of races and has a handful of podium finishes. Combined with the success that Russell is expected to have, The Silver Arrows appear to be in prime position to win the World Constructions’ Championship.

McLaren (+250)

There are growing concerns that McLaren could lose some of their pace in a season defined by new regulations. While the overall picture is still unclear, one thing isn’t in doubt: they still boast one of the strongest driver pairings on the grid.

The Norris–Piastri duo remains a major threat. Last season, McLaren dominated the Constructors’ Championship, piling up 833 points. Mercedes, the next best team, finished well behind with 469 points. McLaren’s campaign featured 14 wins and 34 podiums, underscoring just how far ahead they were.

We did it!
Drivers’ Champion
Constructors’ Champions
Podiums, wins, relentless teamwork, this is McLaren back on top.
Lando, Oscar, the entire team… mega job. 🧡🏆#ThisTeam pic.twitter.com/0pMJEcpyg4

— Zak Brown (@ZBrownCEO) December 7, 2025

Mercedes, by contrast, managed only two wins and 12 podiums. That dynamic is expected to change significantly in 2026, with Mercedes likely to close the gap. The key unknown is how much McLaren will drop off. They’ll still run a Mercedes power unit, but must nail the chassis under the new rules.

McLaren should enjoy flashes of success, but they may not find consistent form until later in the season. That potential slow start could give Russell and Antonelli the opportunity to build a cushion over McLaren. McLaren’s Constructors’ odds have remained steady at +250 over the last few weeks, but Norris and Piastri’s prices to win the drivers’ title aren’t moving in the right direction.

Ferrari (+250)

On the heels of fantastic results in Bahrain on the final week of testing, Ferrari fans have something to get excited about. It was so impressive to bettors that their F1 Constructors’ odds are now level with McLaren.

The 2025 season was nothing but issues for Ferrari. As the season progressed, there was no confidence in the garage or from either driver. That’s especially true for Hamilton, who openly admitted multiple times that he wasn’t having fun in his first year with Ferrari.

In 2026, Ferrari entered with a clean slate under the new regulations, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. If they’re still trailing the top teams, it’s difficult to imagine Hamilton wanting to stay on into 2027. The pressure is enormous, and Ferrari’s recent history suggests they don’t thrive under those conditions.

Suiting up for '26 in Ferrari red ❤️#F1 pic.twitter.com/ZWyuw3sQpr

— Formula 1 (@F1) January 29, 2026

Strong pace in pre-season testing is encouraging, yet it doesn’t always translate to race-day performance. The SF-26 looks promising and has clearly impressed bettors, but +250 for the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship is far too short. The market is overreacting to a limited testing sample, so I don’t recommend taking Ferrari at +250.