F1 Championship 2026 Betting Preview: Predictions, Odds, & Best Bets

F1 World Drivers’ Championship Winner Odds

For the first time in his career, George Russell (+225) is the favorite to win the F1 World Drivers’ Championship. The 28-year-old Mercedes driver owns a 30.7% implied probability to etch his name on the championship trophy.

Never to be underestimated, Max Verstappen (+275) is searching for his fifth title. He was denied a fifth consecutive championship after a feverous comeback bid last season. The Red Bull driver nearly completed a historic comeback but came up short behind Lando Norris (+600).

Norris’ odds to win the 2026 F1 World Drivers’ Championship indicate regression. He’s projected to finish third, with just a 14.3% implied probability to repeat. There are unknowns at McLaren this season, which doesn’t bode well for teammate Oscar Piastri (+900), who has a low 10% implied price.

F1 World Constructors’ Championship Winner Odds

As preseason testing continues, Mercedes (+120) tops the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship odds at Lucky Rebel. Those odds give Toto Wolff’s team a 45.6% implied chance of claiming their first title since 2021, and their first without Lewis Hamilton.

McLaren swept both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships in 2025, but they aren’t favored to win either crown this season. Still, their strongest opportunity lies in the Constructors’ race. At +150, Zak Brown’s Surrey-based squad has a 40% implied chance to go back-to-back.

From there, the odds lengthen significantly. Red Bull sits at +800, underscoring the sense that 2026 is shaping up as a two-team fight between Wolff and Brown. Max Verstappen will need meaningful support from young teammate Isack Hadjar, and bettors are far from convinced he’ll get it.

George Russell (+225)

George Russell matched a career-high fourth-place finish in last year’s World Drivers’ Championship, ending the season well ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc with 319 points. His first season with Mercedes in 2022 was widely regarded as his breakout year.

Back in 2021, the Englishman had gone from fighting near the back of the grid with Williams to taking a remarkable fourth place in the standings with Mercedes. Now, four years on, Russell is being tipped to join Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton as the only Mercedes drivers to win a World Drivers’ Championship. The latter, of course, claimed six titles with the team between 2014 and 2020.

Since Hamilton’s controversial defeat to Max Verstappen in Abu Dhabi in 2021, Mercedes has been in a mild rebuilding phase. Hamilton is now looking to reboot his career at Ferrari, while Mercedes appears back in the title picture with Russell emerging as one of the favorites for the World Drivers’ Championship.

Mercedes fans (and F1 drivers' backs) rejoice 🙌

The move away from ground effect aerodynamics has already had a positive impact on George Russell and others. pic.twitter.com/i1xUQ4ir5B

— PlanetF1 (@Planet_F1) January 31, 2026

Russell is expected to benefit under the new regulations in what looks like a boost for Mercedes. Their power unit is expected to be one of the best in 2026. The W17 has generated a lot of hype in the offseason and Russell is confident that the car will be strong, but caution rivals look good as well.

Note that when F1 went to turbo-hybrid power units in 2014, Mercedes was the quickest to adjust and find success. The consensus is that Mercedes will be ahead of their competition in the new 50-50 power split between electric and combustion power. It’s all up for debate at this point, though.

Max Verstappen (+275)

With all odds to win the World Drivers’ Championship against Verstappen, he was two points away from pulling off the biggest comeback in F1 history. Down by 104 points at the summer break, Verstappen was a Norris incident away at Abu Dhabi from his fifth straight title.

There were multiple times throughout the year that Verstappen said he had zero confidence in a championship bid. Even he surprised himself with the title race going down to the final race of the season. The RB21 and Red Bull turned a corner after team principal Christian Horner was fired in July.

Laurent Mekies: "Whether Max wins or not, I'd say the world has discovered an even more extraordinary Max this year. Whatever happens, the scale of this comeback is something that will go down in the history books." pic.twitter.com/9b3Zj1lxJh

— Verstappen News (@verstappenews) December 5, 2025

The energy in the garage was at an all-time low, with Verstappen and Horner drifting further apart. Laurent Mekies was promoted from Racing Bulls to oversee the operation and Verstappen’s car began to show improvement throughout the year. Now, after a full offseason together with Mekies, can they build on that second-half success?

It will be the first year since 2018 that Red Bull hasn’t used a Honda power unit. In collaboration with Ford, Red Bull designed their own in-house RBPT engine for the 2026 season.

The talk around the paddock, including from Russell, is that Red Bull’s engine is impressive. You aren’t going to get much information from Verstappen, but he appears pleased, albeit the 4-time champion noted there is lots of work to do.

That’s quintessential Verstappen. He’s never going to hype things up or sound overly optimistic until the results are there, so the fact that he isn’t unhappy with Red Bull’s work at the Barcelona shakedown is actually pretty encouraging.

If you give Verstappen a halfway decent car, he’s automatically the driver to beat.

Ride onboard with Max Verstappen as he completes his record-breaking pole lap at the Temple of Speed ⏱️💨#F1 #ItalianGP @pirellisport pic.twitter.com/1DcaVrOGj4

— Formula 1 (@F1) September 6, 2025

After everything that happened last year, including a new team principal, Verstappen won the most races with eight, most laps led with 454, and 10 consecutive podiums. Also, Verstappen set the F1 record for fastest lap at Monza.

If the RB22’s power unit is anywhere close to Mercedes in terms of pace, Verstappen will be right in the mix for the title.

Lando Norris (+600)

The 26-year-old Brit overcame a rough start to the year, erasing an early deficit and ultimately overtaking his McLaren teammate to win the 2025 F1 World Drivers’ Championship. While Piastri couldn’t get on top of his struggles, Norris unlocked the car’s potential after the summer break and improved significantly in qualifying.

Three emerged as contenders.

Now, one stands alone. Lando Norris.#F1 #AbuDhabiGP pic.twitter.com/UCSli3urHe

— Formula 1 (@F1) December 7, 2025

Norris made several errors in the first half of the season, but once the car began to feel more natural underneath him, his form stabilized and he became relentlessly consistent. McLaren, however, can’t afford a repeat of their slow adaptation to the previous regulations. After taking years to fully understand that rule set, they now face a fresh slate of regulations in 2026.

If Norris is to defend his title, McLaren must diagnose and resolve problems far more quickly. The team cannot endure another multi‑year lull before mastering the new rules.

There are reasons for optimism. Unlike in 2014, McLaren heads into this new era with a clear advantage: they’ll run Mercedes power units in 2026, which are widely viewed as the benchmark. On top of that, McLaren’s technical department is vastly stronger and more cohesive than it was in the early hybrid era.

McLaren is unlikely to fall off a cliff, and Norris should remain a genuine title contender come November. Even so, with rivals also making strides, repeating as World Champion will be anything but straightforward.

Mercedes (+120)

There are no real surprises with Mercedes being favored to win the Constructors’ title. Along with the emergence of George Russell this season, as I’ve already discussed, Kimi Antonelli looks ready to take a big step forward in his second year.

The 19-year-old Italian, hand-picked by Wolff to join Mercedes, should appear far more composed in 2026. We saw flashes of real brilliance from him as a rookie, but inconsistency often held him back. With a full season now behind him, many of those basic mistakes should be ironed out, paving the way for a much more complete campaign.

F1 2026 has arrived 👊 Get your first look at the W17 🤩 pic.twitter.com/gV8i22De0Q

— Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team (@MercedesAMGF1) January 22, 2026

I don’t expect Antonelli to outshine Russell, but he will be a quality teammate. Don’t be surprised if Antonelli even wins a couple of races and has a handful of podium finishes. Combined with the success that Russell is expected to have, The Silver Arrows appear to be in prime position to win the World Constructions’ Championship.

McLaren (+150)

There are growing concerns that McLaren could lose some of their pace in a season defined by new regulations. While the overall picture is still unclear, one thing isn’t in doubt: they still boast one of the strongest driver pairings on the grid.

The Norris–Piastri duo remains a major threat. Last season, McLaren dominated the Constructors’ Championship, piling up 833 points. Mercedes, the next best team, finished well behind with 469 points. McLaren’s campaign featured 14 wins and 34 podiums, underscoring just how far ahead they were.

We did it!
Drivers’ Champion
Constructors’ Champions
Podiums, wins, relentless teamwork, this is McLaren back on top.
Lando, Oscar, the entire team… mega job. 🧡🏆#ThisTeam pic.twitter.com/0pMJEcpyg4

— Zak Brown (@ZBrownCEO) December 7, 2025

Mercedes, by contrast, managed only two wins and 12 podiums. That dynamic is expected to change significantly in 2026, with Mercedes likely to close the gap. The key unknown is how much McLaren will drop off. They’ll still run a Mercedes power unit but must nail the chassis under the new rules.

McLaren should enjoy flashes of success, but they may not find consistent form until later in the season. That potential slow start could give Russell and Antonelli the opportunity to build a cushion over McLaren.