NASCAR Championship 2025 Betting Preview: Cup Series Odds and Predictions

NASCAR Playoffs 2025 First Round Odds and Prediction: Cook Out Southern 500

Here are the first-round odds for NASCAR Playoffs, courtesy of Bovada:

Denny Hamlin (+500) is the leading contender to win the opening round of the Cup Series Playoffs in the Cook Out Southern 500. Hamlin has an implied probability of 16.7% to win the first round.

He’s followed closely by Kyle Larson (+550) and William Byron (+650) to cash in with a victory. Larson is narrowly behind Hamlin, with a 15.4% implied chance to win the first race of the postseason. His Hendrick Motorsports teammate, William Byron (+650), rounds out the top 3 at +650, with a 13.3% implied chance.

Ryan Blaney (+700) and Tyler Reddick (+700) are regarded as having solid chances as well. However, the way I see it, Christopher Bell (+1200) is catching fantastic value to win the Cook Out Southern 500! Despite never winning at Darlington, Bell has one of the best average finishing positions.

Bell is second in the NASCAR Cup Series, with an average finish of 9.6. The 30-year-old has three top 5s and four top 10s on his resume. Only Byron has a better average finish than Bell at 9.1. However, Byron isn’t getting such strong value as Bell at +1200.

THREE WINS IN A ROW FOR CHRISTOPHER BELL! What a finish. pic.twitter.com/4io4UIO91s

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) March 9, 2025

In 2025, Bell has four wins in his portfolio, including the All-Star Race. He’s also finished as the runner-up in four races, most recently at Watkins Glen on August 10. At top value of +1200, consider backing Bell for your NASCAR Championships picks in the first round at Darlington!

Kyle Larson (+400)

Larson captured the Cup Series title in 2021 and is a big threat to win four years later in 2025. The 33-year-old multi-talented driver is always one of the most bet on drivers at online bookmakers, so it’s no surprise that he is the favorite to win the NASCAR Championship.

With 2,032 points, Larson finished in a tie with Byron for the most Cup Series points. He’s won three races but hasn’t struck since going to Victory Lane at Kansas on May 11. Larson enters with back-to-back sixth-place finishes after a runner-up performance on July 27 at Indianapolis.

Larson is a talented driver and one of the most accomplished in the field in the playoffs. He is likely going to be in the mix until the Championship 4 in Phoenix. Still, it’s hard to select Larson at the shortest odds on the board.

Since attempting the double in the Indianapolis 500 on May 25, Larson has just one top 3 finish. Two years ago, Larson won at Darlington and should open the playoffs strong, but I don’t know if he is the most likely champion.

KYLE LARSON WINS AT DARLINGTON AS JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK GOES AROUND. pic.twitter.com/gU9NreOLQb

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) May 13, 2023

He doesn’t provide any sort of value in a playoff that is a toss-up. I would pass on Larson, who is regularly the favorite to win the championship, but has to deal with a strong field once again heading into the Round of 16.

Denny Hamlin (+450)

No surprise that Hamlin is right up there with Larson for the best odds for NASCAR Championship contention. At +450, Hamlin and Larson are close to the same chance of winning, according to the betting markets.

Hamlin secured 2,029 season points to finish third in the Cup Series standings. He just missed out on Byron and Larson, but had another strong season nonetheless. Hamlin notched four wins to lead all drivers this season.

Joe Gibbs’ No. 11 car also finished with 11 top 5s to put him alongside Larson in that regard. However, there is one concern with Hamlin, who enters the Round of 16 in brutal form. Hamlin has finished 25th, 10th, 25th, and 24th in his previous four starts.

DENNY HAMLIN WINS AT DOVER! pic.twitter.com/omr7lsyWI8

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) July 20, 2025

Additionally, Hamlin qualified in the top 5 in just one of the previous nine races. He won at Dover on July 20 and finished third at Indianapolis, but otherwise, he’s been way off his typical pace.

This is Hamlin, though, one of the best drivers in the playoffs. I wouldn’t discard him, but I’d like larger 2025 NASCAR Cup Series odds on Hamlin than +450.

Ryan Blaney (+450)

Fresh off a win in the regular season finale at Daytona, Blaney enters with plenty of confidence. This isn’t new for a driver who has already won the championship in 2023.

He’s a routine contender in the playoffs and finished as the runner-up in his title defense last year. The 2025 regular season was a strong effort from Blaney. He picked up 2,026 points to finish only three behind Hamlin.

RYAN BLANEY WINS AT DAYTONA AFTER A WILD FINAL LAP! 😱 pic.twitter.com/4vs4N17mxM

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) August 24, 2025

The Ford Mustang driver was a victor at Nashville in June and then finished the regular season on top in Florida. He closed out the campaign with 10 top 5s and 14 top 10s in 2025. As one of the most consistent performers in the playoffs, Blaney is a legit contender for the Championship.

However, again, the field is wide open, and I’m not excited about laying short odds on Blaney. He belongs in the same conversation with Hamlin and Larson, though you can get better bang for your buck on the 2025 NASCAR champion odds!