With the playoffs finally underway, the 2025 NASCAR Championship odds suggest we are going to have a close battle for the title this postseason! Denny Hamlin has laid claim to the leading spot heading into the Championship 4, but there isn’t much consensus with the prices so close.
Can Hamlin finally clinch his maiden Cup Series title, or will another driver spoil the party in Phoenix? Let’s delve into the latest winner odds and analyze the favorites before I reveal my NASCAR Championship predictions.
2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds
The following odds for the NASCAR Cup Series winner are available at Bovada:
| DRIVER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +210 |
| Kyle Larson | +240 |
| William Byron | +260 |
| Chase Briscoe | +375 |
Denny Hamlin (+210) enters the Championship 4 as the driver to beat for the NASCAR Cup Series title. However, the final round of the playoffs is expected to be wide open between the last four standing racers. As the favorite, Hamlin has a 32.3% implied probability to finally take home the crown, per the best NASCAR betting sites.
Behind Hamlin, Kyle Larson’s (+240) Championship 4 odds are close, with a 29.4% implied chance to win. No. 24 William Byron (+260) follows, as the 27-year-old owns a 27.8% probability after winning at Martinsville.
Chase Briscoe (+375) has the longest NASCAR Championship odds, but it’s going to be a shootout at Phoenix Raceway. Briscoe remains in the running for an upset, as he carries a 21.1% chance into this weekend. It’s a wide-open sprint to the checkered flag with only one race remaining on the calendar. Who is the best bet for your NASCAR Championship picks?
NASCAR Playoffs 2025 Championship 4 Odds and Prediction: Phoenix Raceway
Here are the Championship 4 odds for NASCAR Playoffs, courtesy of Bovada:
DRIVER
ODDS
Denny Hamlin
+375
Kyle Larson
+400
William Byron
+500
Ryan Blaney
+600
Chase Briscoe
+700
Christopher Bell
+1000
Joey Logano
+1400
Chase Elliott
+1600
Along with being favored to win the championship, Hamlin (+375) is the betting favorite to finish atop the leaderboard in the final race of the season at Phoenix Raceway.
Hamlin is followed by two Cup Series title contenders in Larson (+400) and Byron (+500). Ryan Blaney (+600), who was previously the favorite to win the Championship 4, can still finish the season on a high note.
In my opinion, Blaney is going to have a great chance to win the race as well. Despite the 31-year-old never winning at Phoenix, he is one of the most consistent drivers. He’s been a runner-up in four of the last six races on this track!
Blaney had engine problems in his last start at Phoenix Raceway, which seems to be the only thing that has held him back from. Aside from that performance, Blaney has finished in the top 5 in six consecutive races. This underscores Blaney’s feel for Phoenix and how comfortable he is running in the desert on the one-mile track.
RETWEET TO CONGRATULATE RYAN BLANEY ON HIS NASCAR CUP SERIES POLE AT PHOENIX! pic.twitter.com/FjWltf2flK
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) March 12, 2022
He may not be in the Championship 4 conversation, but Blaney isn’t going to go down quietly. He is coming off a strong effort at Martinsville to place P2 behind Byron, but failing to win knocked him out of the playoffs.
In any event, at +600 odds, Blaney has value to strike and go into the offseason with some momentum!
NASCAR Championship Contenders for 2025
The following drivers have the highest chance of winning the NASCAR Championship, according to the latest betting odds.
Denny Hamlin (+210)
For all of the accolades and accomplishments that Hamlin has achieved in his stock car career, Hamlin has never won a Cup Series title. At 44 years old, Hamlin sits as one of the best drivers to never win a championship in his career.
He’s come close but never been able to finish the job in his Toyota. The money is backing Hamlin, as I think bettors are believing he has to eventually win, right? While Hamlin is going to be in the running, it’s a wide-open chase to Victory Lane.
It’s been a while since Hamlin drove to Victory Lane at Phoenix Raceway. He most recently won on November 10, 2019, which was 12 races ago. Hamlin’s results have been erratic, finishing P2, P11, P11, P8, and P23 in his previous five starts at Phoenix Raceway.
This one means a little more for @dennyhamlin. pic.twitter.com/q5A9RlsIkI
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 13, 2025
Hamlin didn’t have a standout season, either. He recorded an average finish of 14.206 in the Cup Series field this season. Thanks to his win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Hamlin clinched a berth in the Championship 4.
Otherwise, Hamlin hasn’t been great, with a P35, P24, P23 finish in three of his previous four races. In short, there is better value for your best Championship 4 picks!
Kyle Larson (+240)
The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champ is back and looking for another title to bolster his illustrious resume. Larson can never be counted out in the Championship 4.
He’s one of the most talented drivers in the field, and Larson’s Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 5 Chevy has been fast recently. Larson has finished P5, P26, P2, P2, and P6 in his previous five races.
Kyle Larson has all the respect for Denny Hamlin 👏 #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/ujied4ByK0
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) October 13, 2025
He has to be feeling comfortable about his car and confidence isn’t something that Larson lacks. He should probably have shorter odds to win the NASCAR Championship than Hamlin.
Larson is a consistent performer at Phoenix Raceway, as he’s finished in the top 5 in four of the last five races here. Additionally, Larson has notched a top 10 finish in 11 of the previous 13 races, including a win in 2021.
It’s hard to discard Larson in the Championship 4 race!
William Byron (+260)
Byron was my pre-playoffs pick to win the Cup Series title, and he is riding a wave of momentum entering the Championship 4. Another strong Hendricks’ driver in the final round, Byron came through in the clutch to win at Martinsville to clinch his spot in the championship race in Phoenix.
He didn’t have the best Round of 8 before winning at Martinsville on the short track. Byron was P36 at Las Vegas Motorspeedway and then P25 at Talladega before landing in Victory Lane at Martinsville. Byron was a fantastic driver during the regular season, though.
WE’RE GOING TO PHOENIX!!! #Championship4 🏁🍾 pic.twitter.com/rptPHcITiX
— William Byron (@WilliamByron) October 26, 2025
The driver of the No. 24 Chevy Camaro won the regular season championship at Richmond in mid-August. Now, Byron returns to Phoenix Raceway where he won in 2023. Like Larson, he’s been a consistent racer in the one-mile event.
Byron is P6, P3, P18, P4, and P1 in his last five races on this track. Hendricks has their cars figured out for a mile race, so I expect Byron and Larson to both be there at the end of this race on Sunday.
Chase Briscoe (+375)
Can the underdog steal the championship in 2025? Last season, Joey Logano came out of nowhere after a mediocre regular season to take the Cup Series title. No one has Briscoe on their radar, but he’s here for a reason and is one of the most underrated drivers in the field this season.
Briscoe scored a huge win at Talladega in a wild finish to clinch his spot in the Championship 4. Talladega is always a crapshoot and he finished on top to punch his ticket. Does Briscoe belong here instead of Blaney? It’s debatable, but Briscoe won his seat fair and square.
CHASE BRISCOE IS A @TALLADEGA WINNER! 🏁 pic.twitter.com/pwfiMdP9w1
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 19, 2025
The rules stipulate that a win results in an automatic trip into the Championship 4, so whether you like it or not, Briscoe has a chance. He didn’t have a bad regular season, entering the Championship 4 with three wins and 15 top 5 performances.
That is more top 5 finishes than Byron, Larson, and Hamlin! In fact, it’s the most top 5 results of any driver in the Cup Series in 2025. Briscoe has been inconsistent at Phoenix Raceway, but he does have a win and four top 10 finishes in nine races. His latest starts weren’t the most promising, though, as Briscoe went P35 and P29.
As I said, it’s a wide-open race, so Briscoe should be in the mix!
2025 NASCAR Championship Predictions and Betting Pick
The Championship 4 is going to be a mad sprint to the finish in the desert. As is typically the case, the final race of the season is a thriller. Not everyone likes the playoff format, but you can’t deny this race provides plenty of fireworks.
Byron was my 2025 Championship 4 pick heading into the Round of 32. I see him and his teammate, Larson, as the frontrunners in this race. It’s close to a toss-up, but I’m going to ride Byron’s momentum and back him to have more success at a track he’s raced well at in the past.
Aside from one P18 outlier, Byron has fought for the win in five of his previous six races since 2022 in Phoenix. I don’t view Byron as a driver with the third-best odds to win the NASCAR Championship. Rather, he should be seen as a favorite, so the value is undeniable at +260!
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