NFL Survivor Picks This Week: Safest and Riskiest Predictions for Week 18

Safest NFL Survivor Pick: Bills to Beat Jets

The Buffalo Bills look to wrap up the regular season with some momentum at home against the New York Jets. After the Patriots defeated the Jets last week, the Bills no longer have an AFC East title to play for in Week 18. However, there are still seeding implications, and a loss to the Jets heading into the playoffs would be tough.

Expect the Bills to be ready to play for a win. If they build a comfortable lead, don’t be surprised if head coach Sean McDermott pulls some starters in favor of the second team. That said, McDermott is highly unlikely to play for a loss in this matchup.

Now imagine new dad strength Josh Allen 🫣 pic.twitter.com/98NXDvmRra

— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) December 16, 2025

There’s also an outside chance that QB Josh Allen sneaks past Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye in the MVP race. I don’t think that’s likely, but Allen will be playing like there’s something on the line. If Allen goes hard, the rest of the team will follow his lead.

The Bills rank in the top 5 in both yards and points per game in the NFL this season. Even if they go through the motions, they should handle a Jets defense that has struggled without CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams on the field. The Jets are in the bottom five of the league, allowing roughly 28 points per game.

Allen has a great opportunity to put big numbers on the board, and he’s likely to do it. With Jets QB Justin Fields out for the season, I have no confidence that Brady Cook will put a dent in the Bills.

Cook does not look like a starting quarterback and may struggle even to stick as a backup. I would take Bills backup QB Mitchell Trubisky over Cook, so even the second-team offense should prevail against the Jets. Back peddling into the playoffs off back-to-back losses wouldn’t be a good look for the Bills. I expect them to put in some effort against a Jets team consisting of backups.

In other words, the Bills are one of the best Week 18 NFL survivor pool picks to wrap up the 2025-26 campaign.

Moderately Safe NFL Survivor Pick: Jaguars to Beat Titans

Despite the Jacksonville Jaguars’ success this season, they haven’t been among the most popular NFL survivor picks in 2025-26. If you haven’t used the Jaguars yet, this is your last chance to do so against the Tennessee Titans. The Jaguars and Texans are heading down to the wire for the AFC South title.

With the Texans’ 20-16 win over the Chargers, the Jaguars haven’t clinched the division yet despite a 23-17 win against Indianapolis, meaning they still have something to play for in Week 18. In other words, the Jaguars will be fully motivated to knock off the Titans here, and their starters won’t be resting at home.

The Titans have built some recent momentum, including a win over the Chiefs. The point spread gives Tennessee a reasonable chance of pulling off the upset this week as well. That said, the Jaguars remain in the driver’s seat for a Week 18 victory.

They’ve been one of the biggest surprises of the 2025-26 season and should finish strong. Jacksonville has averaged about 27 points per game, ranking in the top 10. Trevor Lawrence is blazing hot right now and should continue his late-season surge against the Titans.

Trevor Lawrence is the only player in NFL history with 5+ pass TDs, 1+ rush TD & 50+ rush yards in a single game 🔥@Jaguars | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/0xOE9zbqnW

— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) December 14, 2025

Tennessee’s secondary ranks in the bottom half of the league against the pass. After facing the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes and the New Orleans Saints, their numbers are skewed to look better than they really are. Lawrence shouldn’t have much trouble dicing up this defense.

Averaging 29.3 points per game at home, the Jaguars’ offense is thriving in Jacksonville. The same can’t be said for the Titans, who are putting up just 16.1 points per contest. Titans’ QB Cam Ward has struggled on the road, throwing six touchdown passes and five interceptions on 54.4% passing.

The Jaguars are the pick here, so consider them for your best NFL survivor pool picks this week.

High Risk/High Reward NFL Survivor Pick: Raiders to Beat Chiefs

The Las Vegas Raiders aren’t a good team by any means. They’re in the basement of the NFL and in a fight to the bottom- for the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. However, this Week 18 matchup against the Chiefs may have the opposite effect. The Chiefs have little to no incentive to travel to Las Vegas to play the Raiders.

They’re likely treating this as an early vacation to Vegas, not a business trip to play a football game. Kansas City is in rough shape, and I don’t have any confidence in this team showing up to play against the Raiders. As bad as the Raiders have been, this roster should still be motivated to finish the year with a win over the Chiefs.

The Raiders have shown some signs of life lately. They put up a solid fight versus the Texans in a 23–21 loss, which was a better-than-expected performance. Although Raiders’ QB Geno Smith hasn’t been great this season, I trust his arm more than third-string Chiefs’ QB Chris Oladokun’s.

GENO TO JEANTY FOR THE 60-YARD TD!

LVvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/k8CknFOEcy

— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025

In his two appearances since taking over for Gardner Minshew, Oladokun has passed for 177 yards with one touchdown. He needs the Chiefs’ defense to set him up with prime field position, but I don’t see that unit having much motivation against Smith and the Raiders.

Expect Raiders’ RB Ashton Jeanty and Smith to have solid games at Allegiant Stadium. Losing to improve their odds of securing a better draft pick might be the long-term strategy, but the current roster would like to finish the year on a high note. Beating the Chiefs, even a shorthanded squad, would still provide a reason to head into the offseason with a smile.

So, a Raiders win as a home underdog isn’t out of the question. The Raiders are one of the least-selected survivor teams, but they could end up winning championships in several pools. After placing an angry DE Maxx Crosby on the IR to end the season to continue the tank, expect the players to play with some motivation to spite the front office.

I suggest backing the Raiders for your high-reward Week 18 NFL survivor pool picks.