NHL Playoffs 2026 First Round Betting Preview: Predictions, Odds, & Best Bets

Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars Series Odds and Prediction

The Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars drop the puck in what should be a close series. It’s unfortunate that one of these two teams won’t last past the first round because either could make a run for the Stanley Cup.

Who is more likely to advance? It could come down to seven games, but there’s one side that has the edge. The Stars pulled away from the Wild to finish second in the Central Division. They gave the first-place Colorado Avalanche a good run for a while but will settle for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

Johnny doing Johnny 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ar8ViVlsvo

— x – Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) April 10, 2026

Dallas is one of the most well-rounded teams in the NHL and have strong depth. They have one of the most reliable defenses in the playoffs and are likely to give the Wild offense plenty of issues. The Stars rank second, with an average of 2.70 goals allowed per game. Only the Colorado Avalanche have conceded fewer goals than Dallas this season.

They are backed by a solid goaltending tandem of Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith. Oettinger is outside of the Vezina discussion but has had a solid campaign with a 2.59 GAA and 0.90 save percentage. He also has good playoff experience, posting a 2.56 GAA and a 0.913 save percentage in 65 games.  They should have the defensive advantage over the Wild, who are fourth with 2.88 goals against per game.

With a goal differential of +52, the Stars are well ahead of Minnesota’s +31. The Hurricanes and Avalanche are the only teams with a higher goal ratio than the Stars. I’ve had Dallas circled as a Stanley Cup contender this season and that hasn’t changed much.

It should be competitive after splitting the regular season series, but the Stars should prevail and cash as one of the best NHL Playoffs first round betting picks.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Series Odds and Prediction

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers are set to meet in the playoffs for the first time since 2018, renewing one of Pennsylvania’s fiercest rivalries. It’s also a return to postseason hockey for both clubs, with the Penguins back for the first time since 2022 and the Flyers making their first appearance since 2020.

Over the full 82-game schedule, there was very little separating these two teams. Their overall profiles are similar, but I really like the way Philadelphia surged down the stretch to earn their playoff berth.

Pure exhilaration. pic.twitter.com/QdPcMq1sh9

— x – Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) April 14, 2026

The Flyers punched their ticket with an impressive 8-3-0 run from March 26 to April 13, capped by a shootout win over the Carolina Hurricanes that locked in their spot in the Metropolitan Division.

With the win on Tuesday against the Canadiens, they’ve won 9 of their last 12 contests. They enter the first round with real momentum and a strong sense of belief in the room, both crucial intangibles at this time of year.

The regular-season series between the Penguins and Flyers was just as tight as the standings suggest. They split four meetings, with two games decided in a shootout. Pittsburgh holds a clear edge offensively, ranking third in the NHL with an average of 3.52 goals per game, while Philadelphia checks in at 2.91.

Where the Flyers gain ground is in their physical play and defensive structure. Philadelphia sits inside the league’s top 10 defensively, allowing only 2.93 goals per game. Pittsburgh, by contrast, ranks just 22nd, giving up 3.10 goals per contest.

In the playoffs, where every mistake is magnified and games often tighten up, that defensive edge becomes even more valuable. Flyers’ goaltender Dan Vlader also has the ability to get hot and potentially steal this series.

At +133, the value for your 2026 NHL first round picks lies with Philadelphia.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Series Odds and Prediction

Following 100+ point seasons for the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens, one team will be packing up their bags in the first round. That doesn’t seem like the fairest playoff system, but it will provide an exciting matchup out of the gate. At -250, the Lightning have a sizable 71.4% implied probability of winning.

That said, I don’t believe either team was hoping to draw this series. The Lightning and Canadiens have been two of the best teams in the regular season. Playoff experience is ultimately going to prove to be the key difference, though.

It’s hard to bet against Jon Cooper and a squad loaded with experience in the postseason. Cooper is a two-time Stanley Cup champion, just like Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Brayden Point, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Anthony Cirelli. The Lightning have a core that has been here before and won’t be overwhelmed by the moment.

Meanwhile, the Canadiens have an exciting young core that includes many inexperienced players. The likes of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson, and Juraj Slafkovsky have some playoff experience, but it’s incomparable to the veterans on the Lightning.

Tampa is in the top 5 offensively and defensively. They have scored 3.51 goals per game for fourth, while conceding 2.78 goals for third in the regular season. Vasilevskiy might be the difference in the crease. He’s the favorite to win the Vezina after a strong season between the pipes.

ANDREI VASILEVSKIY ARE YOU KIDDING ME? 🙅‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/Ze99D1KqhS

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 11, 2026

Vasilevskiy boasts a rock-solid 2.31 GAA and 0.912 save percentage in 58 games played. He has a career 2.45 GAA and 0.918 save percentage in 120 playoff games. Canadiens’ starter Jakub Dobes has appeared in only three postseason matchups, with a 2.91 GAA and 0.881 save percentage in 2024-25.

Expect the Lightning to outmuscle the Canadiens in a series that lasts six games. The Canadiens are a solid team, and likely the favorite against most playoff teams, but this is a mismatch. The Bolts are heavily favored for good reason. I suggest the Lightning for one of the NHL Playoffs first round best bets.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators Series Odds and Prediction

The Ottawa Senators and Carolina Hurricanes meet in what should be a fairly competitive first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series. Ottawa battled hard after the Olympic break just to get in but now faces a Carolina team that has been comfortably near the top of the standings for months.

The Hurricanes finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference and trailed only the Avalanche for the league’s top mark.

Let the real fun begin! pic.twitter.com/CIwiSYdaUS

— z – Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) April 15, 2026

Carolina isn’t the flashiest team in the NHL, but it is one of the most reliable. The Canes consistently take care of business in the opening round. In the last six non-Covid seasons, they’ve won every first-round series.

Their problems usually come later in the playoffs, not at the start. That trend should continue here, even if Ottawa pushes this matchup to six games.

By the numbers, the Hurricanes are elite at both ends of the ice. They rank 2nd in goals scored, 6th in goals against, and 2nd in shots per game, which suggests the Senators will be under heavy pressure from the opening puck drop.

Ottawa, on the other hand, has been mediocre defensively, allowing 3.01 goals per game this season. Goaltending is a major question mark for the Senators.

Linus Ullmark is a streaky netminder who can look excellent when he’s on, but he’s been too inconsistent. He posted a 2.76 GAA and .891 save percentage in 49 games this season, and his playoff track record is even more concerning: a 3.28 GAA and .885 save percentage for his career.

Against Carolina’s deep forward group, that’s a troubling combination. The addition of Nikolaj Ehlers in the offseason should pay off for the Hurricanes. He could be the final piece for a team that has been missing that extra player in recent years.

Home ice further tilts the scales toward Carolina. The Hurricanes have been dangerous in their own building with a 29-10-2 record, while the Senators are just 21-15-5 on the road. With superior depth, strong two-way play, heavy shot volume, and a clear home-ice edge, Carolina is well positioned to cash for your 2026 NHL Playoffs first round best bets.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins Series Odds and Prediction

The Buffalo Sabres are back in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since the 2010–11 season. After finishing 36-39-7 last year, they’ve completely turned things around and now enter the postseason as a legitimate contender.

Buffalo has already clinched the Atlantic Division, finishing ahead of both the Lightning and Canadiens. With that comes a new challenge: living up to heightened expectations when the games matter most. The key question now is whether the Sabres are simply a regular season powerhouse or truly built for playoff success.

Head coach Lindy Ruff has this group believing in themselves and playing as a unified team. Buffalo is getting contributions from throughout the lineup, with both the blue line and forward group stepping up in big moments.

The drought breakers.

Tage and Rasmus reflect on the journey → https://t.co/nR4ylza2bR pic.twitter.com/ZNEVUkuWOg

— y – Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) April 4, 2026

The emergence of Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch has given the offense a major boost. Both are 30+ goal scorers, providing consistent scoring punch. On the back end, Rasmus Dahlin has been outstanding, ranking second on the team with 74 points. He drives the attack from the blue line while also giving the Sabres a tough, reliable presence defensively.

The numbers underscore how strong this team has been. Buffalo’s +48 goal differential is the third-best mark in the Eastern Conference. The Bruins, meanwhile, put together a solid 100+ point season, but their +22 goal differential trails far behind the Sabres. One of Boston’s biggest issues has been their performance away from home.

The Bruins are only 16-16-9 on the road and now must head into what should be a difficult building to win in. The Sabres were dominant at KeyBank Center, going 26-10-4 on home ice. Given how locked in they’ve been all season, especially at home, there’s little reason to expect Buffalo to ease off the gas now.

The series may not be over quickly, but the Sabres are one of the best NHL Playoffs first round picks.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth Series Odds and Prediction

The Vegas Golden Knights finished the regular season 39-26-17 with 95 points. That was somehow enough to win the Pacific Division, which says more about how weak the division was than how strong Vegas played.

For context, the 95-point Washington Capitals missed the playoffs entirely in the Eastern Conference, and those same Golden Knights would have slotted in only sixth in the loaded Atlantic. Still, Vegas did heat up at the right time, going 7-0-3 over its final 10 games.

That said, I think the market is overvaluing them at -185. The Utah Mammoth might be flying more under the radar than any other team in the postseason.

Since the former Arizona Coyotes franchise moved and was sold to an ownership group committed to winning, the arrow has been pointing straight up. Utah quietly put together a 43-33-6 season with 92 points and a goal differential north of +28, nearly double Vegas’ +15.

When Dylan Guenther and Clayton Keller are on the ice, you know you're about to see something special 🤩

NHL x @massmutual pic.twitter.com/S0OsSiPg9o

— NHL (@NHL) March 10, 2026

The Mammoth were one of the more balanced teams in the league, finishing top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed. They averaged 3.27 goals for and 2.90 against per game and leaned on an emerging young core to drive results. Six different Mammoth skaters scored at least 23 goals, with Dylan Guenther breaking out for a 40-goal season.

When you put all that next to this series price, the odds feel out of step with reality. Yes, the Golden Knights have the experience and they’re rounding into form at the right time, but I don’t see them as a -185 favorite over a confident, well-rounded Mammoth team.

At this number, Utah looks like a live underdog and a legitimate value play among NHL first-round series bets.

Colorado Avalanche vs. LA Kings Series Odds and Prediction

The Stanley Cup favorites are massive favorites to defeat the Los Angeles Kings in the first round. At -450, the Colorado Avalanche have a 81.8% implied probability to clear the Kings to open the playoffs.

The Avalanche dominated in the regular season and had the advantage over the rest of the league in the standings. With a record of 55-16-11 and 121 points, the Avalanche finished eight points ahead of the next closest team in the Carolina Hurricanes.

Having gone 7-2-1 in their previous 10 games, the Avalanche are also heading into the playoffs with strong momentum. It’s hard to argue against how good the Avalanche are, but when betting on them, it comes down to whether their odds are worth a bet.

He's a Rocket man 🏆🚀

Congratulations to Nathan MacKinnon on winning the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy! pic.twitter.com/hdpc19IGfQ

— P – Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) April 17, 2026

They rank first in the NHL, with 3.63 goals per game, and only got more dangerous at the deadline by adding Nazem Kadri. The Avalanche are also leading the league by a considerable distance defensively. The defense has allowed 2.40 goals per game, which puts them 0.31 goals ahead of the second place Dallas Stars and have a goal better than the Kings.

Colorado made easy work of the Kings in the regular season, with a record of 3-0-0, all of which were by at least two goals. Although the NHL Playoffs series odds make no sense to back at -450, they should oust the Kings in five games max. With that in mind, consider the Avalanche to cover the series spread.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks Series Odds and Prediction

The Edmonton Oilers will face the Anaheim Ducks in the first round of the playoffs. After a rocky regular season that nearly saw them miss out entirely, the Oilers snuck in with a 41-30-11 record and 93 points.

Both teams benefited from playing in the Pacific Division, with the Ducks finishing just one point behind Edmonton at 43-33-6. That single point could prove significant in this series, as it gives the Oilers home-ice advantage. Anaheim was abysmal on the road, posting a 19-20-2 record.

Traveling to Alberta won’t be easy for the Ducks, who will need to find a way to steal home ice. If they manage to pull off an upset in Edmonton early, this series could get interesting.

However, I have little faith in Anaheim’s defense containing Edmonton’s high-octane offense. The Ducks will likely have to lean heavily on their own scoring, because slowing down the Oilers’ forwards will be a tall order. Overall, Anaheim finished 29th in the league, allowing an average of 3.51 goals per game.

ANOTHER ART ROSS TROPHY FOR MCDAVID! 🏆

Connor McDavid has won his sixth career Art Ross Trophy as the League's leader in points at the end of the regular season! #NHLAwards pic.twitter.com/FR5MtgTvPK

— NHL (@NHL) April 17, 2026

That’s a glaring mismatch against an Oilers lineup led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. McDavid has reached peak form lately and is unlikely to let up against the Ducks’ unreliable blue line. Starting goaltender Lukas Dostal has also struggled, with a 3.10 GAA and a .880 save percentage, numbers that don’t inspire much confidence against Edmonton’s attack.

I like what Joel Quenneville has done in his first season with this team, and the future is bright in Anaheim. That said, they need help defensively being taken as a serious contender. So, for your NHL Playoffs first round series betting picks, I recommend siding with the Oilers.