Swing state odds show how powerful a few hundred-thousand people in the United States will be in November. The top political betting sites expect a tight battle in Arizona, Nevada, and several other places.
A swing state is one where the race could either way, so they are notoriously tough to predict! And yet, I share my analysis and predictions for all of them to help your political betting strategy and help you find the best swing states betting picks.
Let’s start with some quick predictions, before I dive into each state separately.
2024 US Election Swing States Predictions
BetOnline offers odds for six swing states that surprising don’t include North Carolina, where Trump won by only 1.4% last time around. I expect four of them to go to the Republican candidate, here’s the full breakdown.
| ARIZONA | PREDICTION | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Trump | -130 |
| Georgia | Trump | -250 |
| Michigan | Biden | -140 |
| Nevada | Trump | -105 |
| Pennsylvania | Trump | -110 |
| Wisconsin | Biden | -130 |
These are my predictions, but some of these states are more certain than others. Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania are almost impossible to call, and I’m not confident to place a wager there.
That’s not the case with Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, though, so let’s talk about them!
Georgia 2024 Election Odds, Prediction, And Best Bet
- Republicans; -250
- Democrats; +170
The betting odds for the swing states show us that Georgia is not a blue state. It’s a Republican stronghold and has been since 1984. The last time Georgia voted for a Democratic president before Biden was 1992 when Bill Clinton ran for his first term.
The Trump campaign failed by several metrics in Georgia last time around Stacy Abrams and Georgia Democrats made a competitive push to flip the state, while Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic pulled his approval rating to new lows.
A CNN exit poll found that 86% of conservatives voted for Trump. 87% of liberals and 65% of moderates voted for Biden, with 69% of the current president’s supporters also stating they voted “against his opponent” rather than “for your candidate.”
Still, it was close. Biden won Georgia in 2020 by 0.27%, just under 12,000 votes, but the state soon returned to its Republican baseline. In 2022, Georgia elected Democrat Raphael Warnock to the Senate.
However, he ran against the uniquely unqualified Republican, Herschel Walker. His scandals, like concealing an abortion he pressured exes into and lies about past jobs, sunk him in Georgia’s 2022 special election.
In contrast, Republican Brian Kemp won Georgia’s race for Governor by 7.5% over Democrat Stacy Abrams. He was an experienced politician who knew how to run a campaign and manage a PR crisis. Producing far fewer scandals than Walker didn’t hurt him, either!
Without the challenge of a botched pandemic response and a campaign focused on the incumbent personally, Georgia will return to its Republican equilibrium.
Michigan 2024 Election Odds, Prediction, And Best Bet
- Democrats; -140
- Republicans; +100
In January 2024, the United Auto Workers Union endorsed Joe Biden for president after the Democrats have drifted from working class concerns for decades. Global free trade agreements under Clinton and Obama may have lowered prices for consumers. However, they also sent jobs overseas which closed manufacturing plants in cities like Detroit.
One of Biden’s policy accomplishments was to use major bills to support workers and unions. For example, The New Yorker reported the 2021 Inflation Reduction Act built a new “manufacturing complex” in Tennessee. In Michigan, Biden supported the UAW’s September 2023 strike. Combined with his May tariffs against China, Biden is a pro-labor president.
Trump’s trade war with China may have increased the price of Chinese goods. However, it also supported American businesses and made them more competitive. Biden kept many of Trump’s tariffs in place as president.
Biden’s fate in Michigan will depend on union leaders’ abilities to tie pro-labor policies to his efforts. Over time, that may be a successful project, especially as the impact of RFK Jr’s candidacy becomes clearer.
After all he has done for labor and for labor leaders’ enthusiasm for his accomplishments, Biden is well-positioned to win Michigan in November. The election swing states odds reflect this likelihood.
Wisconsin 2024 Election Odds, Prediction, And Best Bet
- Democrat; -130
- Republican; -110
Wisconsin is similar to Michigan. Both are industrial states that Biden must win to gain a second term. Unions and pro-labor policies will be crucial to winning both states. Consequently, the 2024 swing state odds are closer in Wisconsin than in some of the other swing states.
The small difference that Wisconsin has is a larger white population than Michigan. That means the white working-class vote will be slightly more important in Wisconsin than Michigan. While Biden remains competitive, he must pivot to cultural issues to win Wisconsinites instead of economic ones.
The president has tried to protect workers and empower unions, but culturally, the Republican party is closer to white working-class voters. Immigration and economic protectionism are more often Republican policies than Democratic ones.
Biden has campaigned on abortion protections and embraced tariffs that make foreign goods more expensive, protecting American businesses from foreign competition. He has also proposed new immigration restrictions that would speed the asylum process up. Biden is also considering an executive order to shut the border down if certain crossing thresholds are reached.
Still, the voters don’t see Biden as a better president for the economy. In a May 2024 Quinnipiac poll, 52% of Wisconsin voters rated Trump better for the economy. Only 44% said Biden was better on economic issues.
As cultural issues become more important in deciding elections, Biden’s moves on key cultural issues will be more critical to his re-election chances. He has a decent shot at winning here, so I like the odds.
Where To Bet On The 2024 US Election Swing States?
The US election odds show it’s still a coin toss, especially with the unknown impact of RFK Jr’s candidacy. However, Biden is better positioned in states where labor unions are more important, and Trump will likely regain the South.
BetOnline is a great place to bet on these outcomes with competitive 2024 swing state election odds and an excellent 50% welcome bonus of up to $1,000 for new players.
