Rockies vs. Padres Pick – May 2nd

We are definitely in need of a slump-buster today. It’s a long season, baseball, and just like the Boys of Summer, us pundits will have some ups and downs as well. We are still trading water overall but a nasty four-game skid has eroded much of the early season progress making today the ideal time to get back on track. A ground ball with eyes, a little bleeder or a flare – something to get that average back on the climb.

The good news is, we have some really interesting games to choose from. The Diamondbacks have the second-best run differential in all of baseball, but the NL West co-front runners are going to have their work cut out for them tonight meeting the Nationals and Tanner Roarke tonight in DC. The Nationals have a roster full of MVP candidates doing insane statistical things en route to their NL-leading 17-8 start and whopping +48 run differential. Jon Lester gets the ball for the Cubs who are looking to bounce back from a blowout loss in the series opener to Philly, but will oppose Jeremy Hellickson who is 4-0 with 1.80 ERA, making the Cubs -210 feel a little steep to me… I’m not taking the big underdog flyer tonight, but admit to being intrigued by the huge value.

Let’s get back on track tonight with a slump-busting W.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Colorado Rockies +100 at San Diego Padres-110 (Total: 7.5)
Tyler Chatwood (2-3, 4.88 ERA) vs. Trevor Cahill (1-2, 4.50 ERA)

I get that Petco is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but seeing the Rockies and a total that starts with “7” is going to pique my curiosity every time, especially when both starting pitchers are toting ERA’s in the high fours.

Tyler Chatwood was good against the Padres last year, limiting them to just one earned run in 14 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts. I imagine he will find some more success tonight against the 23rd most effective offense in MLB. All of a sudden, that “love the OVER” feeling is beginning to ebb… The Rockies should score some runs against Cahill, but I’m not so sure Chatwood doesn’t really enjoy a night outside of Coors against a relatively anemic offensive ballclub.

Trevor Cahill hasn’t enjoyed a lot of success against the Rockies with a 5-6 lifetime mark and a 4.44 ERA. The Rockies aren’t just feasting on Coors Field’s mountain air. They are an impressive 9-4 away from home, so this team can do more than just hit homeruns. The pitching is far better than year’s past and the lineup can manufacture runs, not just bomb at 5,000 feet.

It makes the Rockies a nice value tonight at even money. I am a little concerned about Colorado longterm, as their first-place status is a little flimsy as they actually have a slightly negative run differential as opposed to Arizona’s +28, but for tonight, they have a slight pitching edge and a larger offensive one.


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