2022-23 NFL Conference Championships Betting Odds and Predictions

The Odds 2022 2023 Conference Championships

There are only four teams left in the NFL this season. The NFL Conference Championship Weekend is set with the AFC and NFC Championship Game. We have the latest NFL Conference Championship odds from Bovada and predictions at TheSportsGeek.

The winners of the AFC and NFC Championships this weekend will meet at Super Bowl 57 on February 12 at State Farm Stadium. That is what is at stake for the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles have the same at stake in the NFC.

This was not the expected final four teams according to the NFL Conference Championship odds. Oddsmakers projected the matchup in the NFC Championship Game correctly. However, the Buffalo Bills were supposed to get to the AFC Championship Game, at least according to the odds.

The Chiefs and Bills were No. 1 and No. 2 on the Super Bowl odds for the majority of the season. The Bills closed as a 5.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks against the Bengals. They were the only betting favorite in the NFL Divisional Round that did not win.

We would have had an epic matchup between the Bills and Chiefs in the AFC Championship. That said, a rematch between the Bengals and Chiefs has the potential to be a thriller at Arrowhead Stadium.

Meanwhile, in the NFC, a matchup between two elite defenses in Philadelphia should be a good one. The odds of the 49ers and Eagles going to the NFC Championship were pretty solid at the start of the playoffs. San Francisco developed into a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl over the last month.

TheSportsGeek has everything you need this week leading up to the championship games. Let’s delve into the AFC Championship odds and NFC Championship odds following the Divisional Round.

Updated NFL Conference Championship Odds

According to the oddsmakers, the Chiefs are the most likely team to win this weekend. They also have the best odds to win Super Bowl 57. Going into the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs are +225 to win the Super Bowl.

The Bengals are just behind the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +250. There is not much room separating the fourth team, the 49ers at +275, and the Chiefs at +225. The Eagles are +265 at Bovada to win Super Bowl 57.

We are going to go over the AFC and NFC Championships separately. These are initial leans on both games. Our official NFL Conference Championship picks will be available later in the week at TheSportsGeek.

TheSportsGeek has the best online sportsbooks on the road to Super Bowl 57. Visit our Super Bowl Betting Sites page for the best sportsbooks to bet on the Conference Championships and Super Bowl.


Updated AFC Championship Odds

AFC Championship Betting Odds Courtesy of Bovada:

Cincinnati Bengals+1 (-110)-105Over 47.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs-1 (-110)-115Under 47.5 (-110)

The Chiefs are small favorites over the Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium. The oddsmakers and public love what they saw from the Bengals against the Bills on Sunday. That dominant performance over the Bills is keeping the Chiefs from behind a bigger favorite.

The Bengals did everything right in that matchup. From the defense, offensive line, and playmakers, the Bengals beat the Bills thoroughly. The biggest improvement for the Bengals was their offensive line.

For a team that was dealing with offensive line issues, that was not the case against the Bills. They won on both sides of the ball. The AFC Championship odds suggest that the Bengals might be able to do it again.

The Chiefs did not look as perfect in their Divisional Round showdown. They did not cover the 9.5-point spread in a 27-20 win. That said, the Chiefs were in control and it never looked like they were in danger of losing the game.

Is this a gift on the Chiefs as 1-point favorites? There were no gifts for Chiefs’ backers in the AFC Championship last season. We will see if they learned anything from that experience in 2022.

AFC Championship Predictions

For our first NFL Conference Championship prediction, we are giving our initial impressions of the AFC Championship. The public is likely going to be split on this one. After what we saw on Sunday, there is a good argument to be made on the Bengals.

Patrick Mahomes is the likely MVP this season, but he will not be at 100% in the AFC Championship. Mahomes is dealing with a high ankle sprain after hobbling off the field versus the Jaguars. He returned to the game and played well, though he was not moving around the same.

The AFC Championship odds have to be impacted by this news. Note that Mahomes has full intention of playing in this one. Nothing is going to prevent him from playing, and the Bengals probably can’t prevent him from having a big game.

I have my doubts that the Bengals’ secondary can follow up with another flawless performance. The Bengals were 23rd against the pass in the regular season. Look for Mahomes to connect on big plays downfield.

My biggest concern with the Bengals has to be their offensive line, though. They looked amazing in Buffalo on Sunday. However, that has not happened consistently enough lately.

The Chiefs are aggressive up front. They’ve been strong against the run this season. Expect the defense to give Mahomes and the Chiefs a lift at Arrowhead.


Updated NFC Championship Odds

NFC Championship Betting Odds Courtesy of Bovada:

San Francisco 49ers+2.5 (-105)+125Over 45.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles-2.5 (-115)-145Under 45.5 (-110)

The Eagles as a 2.5-point favorite at home looks about right for this matchup. They have a small edge for home-field advantage. If the Eagles had to go to California they’d be underdogs.

These are too well-balanced teams that do a little bit of everything well. There is not one unit that particularly sticks out for either side, but that only points to how good they are all over the field.

The Eagles got here with an offensive line and defense. This team did it the right way by building an elite offensive line and defense. Of course, Jalen Hurts has something to do with the success, as well.

Hurts is likely going to come short of winning the MVP. However, he did everything asked of him this season. Against Mr. Irrelevant, Brocky Purdy, we’ll see if he finally runs out of magic on the east coast.

NFC Championship Predictions

The 49ers do not need Purdy to pass for 300 yards in this game. They need him to manage possessions correctly. The Eagles lead the NFL with 179.8 passing yards allowed per game.

Doubting Purdy has been a foolish move for many sports bettors before the NFC Championship, though. The 49ers can lean on Christian McCaffrey to help Purdy.

The Eagles have been rather ordinary against the run. They’ve allowed 121.6 yards per game for 16th in the NFL. That is a hole that the 49ers can exploit with the former Panther.

Running the ball on the 49ers will not be simple. The Eagles’ offense works so well because of their work on the ground. However, the 49ers are second with 77.7 rushing yards allowed per game.

Overall, the 49ers are first in the league with 300.6 yards and 16.3 points allowed per game. They have the most underrated offense in the NFL, as well. With 365.6 yards a game, the 49ers are the fifth-best offense.


TheSportsGeek is back with our updated NFL Conference Championship odds. These updated AFC Championship odds and NFC Championship odds represent the conference championship odds following Week 11.

This includes the NFL Conference Championship odds. There is not a No. 1 favorite on the odds board in the AFC or NFC going into Week 12 of the NFL schedule.

What is there to say at this point? In most seasons, a lot has been decided in the mind of the public by now. Whether they end up being right or wrong, there is some consensus.

However, that has not been the case in 2022. Parity has been the leading story of the NFL season. Not having a clear Super Bowl prediction going into Thanksgiving is what the NFL likes to see.

Keeping as many teams in the playoff race after Thanksgiving is good for ratings. Almost the entire NFC is still in the playoff picture. The NFC is going to have a wild scramble for a spot in the playoffs.

As we approach the final stretch of the regular season, let’s get into the AFC odds and NFC odds. We also have our latest NFL Conference Championship predictions going into Week 12.

Updated AFC Championship Odds

AFC Championship Betting Odds Courtesty of Bovada:
Kansas City Chiefs8-2+200
Buffalo Bills7-3+200
Baltimore Ravens7-3+600
Miami Dolphins7-3+850
Cincinnati Bengals6-4+1000
Tennessee Titans7-3+1400
LA Chargers5-5+2500
New England Patriots6-4+3500
New York Jets6-4+6000
Cleveland Browns3-7+10000
Jacksonville Jaguars3-7+10000
Denver Broncos3-7+15000
Indianapolis Colts4-6-1+15000
Las Vegas Raiders3-7+15000
Pittsburgh Steelers3-7+40000
Houston Texans3-7+50000

The most interesting aspect of the AFC odds is that teams like the Texans and Raiders are still up on the board. We can call it right now. These bottom teams with large AFC Championship odds are not worth a look.

While the NFL is wide open this season, none of these bets look appealing. That being said, the 3-7 teams are all statistically alive in the playoff race. They just have not shown championship characteristics to consider.

The Chiefs Join Bills As Co-Favorites

Since our last AFC Championship odds update, the Chiefs have moved up as co-favorites to win the AFC Championship. The Bills are still a favorite, but they have company on the AFC odds board.

The Bills were a +280 favorite to win the AFC Championship on September 8. Their odds look better, but the Chiefs have improved their plight considerably. They have gone from +550 to +200 with the Bills.

If Patrick Mahomes did not complete a winning drive against the Chargers in Week 11, they would not be co-favorites with the Bills. However, Mahomes has been heating up, and he showed it on Sunday Night Football.

The Chiefs have won four straight games going into Week 12 of the season. Buffalo has tailed off somewhat since then, but were able to get back on track with a win over the Browns in Detroit.

AFC Championship Predictions

The Chiefs and Bills make plenty of sense as picks to win the AFC Championship. However, at +200, there is not much value to be had here. I’m not one to bet +200 for a futures bet.

How about the 7-3 Ravens at +600 to win the AFC? That looks like good value on a team that is not seeing much attention. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the quietest of the hot teams in the NFL.

The Ravens are on a four-game winning streak, which includes a 27-22 win over the Buccaneers in Tampa. They came a field goal short of beating the Bills earlier in the season.

Baltimore is well-rounded on both sides of the ball, though the passing game could be better. Their defensive numbers are skewed after getting into a 42-38 track meet against the Dolphins. Otherwise, the Ravens have been in good form.

The Ravens have been disappointing offensively at times. However, this was the case when they won the Super Bowl a decade ago, too. Jackson can get hot, and he just needs to get hot at the right time.

AFC Championship Prediction

Updated NFC Championship Odds

NFC Championship Betting Odds Courtesty of Bovada:
Philadelphia Eagles9-1+210
San Francisco 49ers5-4+300
Dallas Cowboys7-3+450
Minnesota Vikings7-3+550
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5-5+750
Seattle Seahawks6-4+2000
New York Giants7-3+4000
Washington Commanders6-5+5000
Green Bay Packers4-7+6000
New Orleans Saints4-7+6000
Atlanta Falcons5-6+7000
Arizona Cardinals4-6+10000
LA Rams3-7+10000
Detroit Lions4-6+15000
Carolina Panthers3-8+50000
Chicago Bears3-8+50000

The NFC is going to be a crazy ride to the final week of the regular season. There should be multiple teams that do not know if they’re going to the playoffs until the final week. The AFC is wide open, but the NFC is something else right now.

Even the Lions are suddenly in the playoff picture after a 2-6 start. The Lions are going into Thanksgiving against the Bills at 4-6. The NFC betting odds have changed drastically from September.

New Favorite In The NFC

The Philadelphia Eagles were +1000 to win the NFC Championship on September 8. They are going into Week 12 the favorite to win. Philadelphia is currently a healthy +210 favorite to win over the San Francisco 49ers.

The oddsmakers value defense when it comes to the Super bowl. The Eagles and 49ers are both defensive teams. When it comes to the Eagles, they check two big boxes with an offensive line and defense.

The Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2018 as an underdog. If they do it this time, the Eagles are doing it in a different role.

San Francisco addressed their offense by adding star running back Christian McCaffrey. There are a lot of weapons on the 49ers’ offense. Kyle Shanahan just has to figure it all out for the playoffs.

The Buccaneers were +330 favorites to win the NFC Championship in our last odds update. Their AFC Championship odds have dropped significantly after a 5-5 start this season. There is one big caveat with the Buccaneers, though.

NFC Championship Predictions

The Buccaneers might be 5-5, but look at the division they play in. They are currently leading the NFC South at .500. The Falcons are on their heels at 5-6, while the Saints are 4-7.

It is likely that Tom Brady and the Bucs emerge from their bye week in better order. They beat the Rams, 16-13, and the Seahawks, 21-16, before going on a bye.

If the Buccaneers make the playoffs, and they should given this bad division, who is going to want to see Brady in the postseason? Not one team in the NFL.

The public will likely follow the Bucs in the playoffs, too. Do not expect the Buccaneers to be big underdogs, even against the Eagles and 49ers. The Buccaneers win the NFC South and their odds to win the AFC Championship will drop well off from +750.

Again, we are all about finding the best NFL Conference Championship odds. Tampa is not considered a contender, but at +750? They are worth considering.

NFC Championship Prediction

There are a lot of great things about the internet. Chief among them these days is the fact that you can bet on football literally any time you want. It doesn’t even have to be football season in order for you to get a few bucks in on the action.

NFL futures betting can be tricky, but it can also be profitable if you know when to place those bets.

While betting on the Super Bowl is the most popular way to wager on NFL futures, you can also take a gander at up-to-the-minute NFL conference championship odds.

NFL betting sites are updating those odds all the time.
Just because you’ve placed a bet on the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC next year doesn’t mean you can place a separate hedge bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to do the same. Needless to say, an awful lot can and will change between now and conference championship weekend in early 2023.

Here’s a look at the updated 2022-23 NFL conference championship odds.

AFC Championship Odds

Buffalo Bills(+280)
Kansas City Chiefs(+550)
Los Angeles Chargers(+750)
Denver Broncos(+900)
Baltimore Ravens(+1000)
Indianapolis Colts(+1200)
Cincinnati Bengals(+1200)
Miami Dolphins(+2000)
Tennessee Titans(+2000)
Cleveland Browns(+2200)
Las Vegas Raiders(+2200)
New England Patriots(+2200)
Pittsburgh Steelers(+5000)
Jacksonville Jaguars(+6500)
New York Jets(+7500)
Houston Texans(+13000)

Bills Open as AFC Favorites

The Bills will kick off the 2022-23 season with the best AFC championship betting odds at +280. This is despite the fact that the franchise has made just one AFC Championship Game appearance since 1993.

Not only are the Bills favored to win the AFC:
But they’ve also got the best Super Bowl 57 odds of any team at +600, per NFL betting sites. There’s an incredible amount of optimism surrounding Josh Allen and co. on the heels of the team’s thrilling playoff loss to the Chiefs earlier this year.

Buffalo will also enter Thursday’s season opener in Los Angeles as favorites. The Bills are favored by about a field goal over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, which is truly a testament to the way both bettors and oddsmakers feel about this team entering the new campaign.

Loaded AFC West

Of the four teams with the best AFC championship odds, three reside in the AFC West division. The Chiefs (+550), Chargers (+750), and Broncos (+900) are all generating plenty of hype ahead of the new season, and with good reason.

Kansas City has been the best team in football over the past half-decade, but the rest of the division is starting to catch up. The Chargers are one of the most intriguing young teams in the NFL, while the Broncos finally found a quarterback in Russell Wilson.

Don’t sleep on the Raiders, who check in with +2200 AFC title betting odds. Las Vegas also improved this offseason with major additions like Davante Adams and Chandler Jones.

NFC Championship Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+330)
Green Bay Packers(+400)
Los Angeles Rams(+550)
San Francisco 49ers(+750)
Philadelphia Eagles(+1000)
Dallas Cowboys(+1000)
Minnesota Vikings(+1800)
New Orleans Saints(+2000)
Arizona Cardinals(+2000)
Washington Commanders(+3500)
New York Giants(+6000)
Detroit Lions(+6000)
Carolina Panthers(+7000)
Seattle Seahawks(+8000)
Chicago Bears(+8000)
Atlanta Falcons(+10000)

Can the Rams Repeat?

The Rams won the Super Bowl last year, but oddsmakers aren’t too keen on their chances to repeat the feat. Los Angeles will open the season with just the third-best NFC championship odds of any team at +550, which puts them behind both Tampa Bay (+330) and Green Bay (+400).

Super Bowl hangovers are a real thing.
No team has won consecutive championships since the Patriots (who else?) did so in 2003-04. Whether Los Angeles can buck that trend remains to be seen, but there’s still no shortage of talent on this roster.

There are some questions surrounding Matthew Stafford’s health, however. Stafford is reportedly battling tendinitis in his throwing elbow, which seems rather problematic for a quarterback. If their Pro Bowl QB isn’t at 100 percent, the Rams will have a very tough time winning a conference headlined by Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

Will the Pack Take a Step Back?

The Packers managed to convince Aaron Rodgers to stick around this offseason, but the departure of Davante Adams looms large heading into the new season. Adams and Rodgers have formed the NFL’s most lethal partnership over the past couple of seasons, and replacing a pass-catcher of his caliber will be no easy task.

Adams’ consistent production is a major reason Rodgers has won MVP in back-to-back seasons. Green Bay drafted Christian Watson and plucked Sammy Watkins off the free-agent wire, while Allen Lazard may be tasked with taking over as the Packers’ WR1.

Rodgers still has plenty of talent with which to work, but Green Bay’s repeated postseason shortcomings can’t be overlooked. In spite of it all, the Packers will still open the season with the second-best NFC title odds of any team at +400.

Odds to Win AFC Championship

Buffalo Bills(+300)
Kansas City Chiefs(+600)
Los Angeles Chargers(+750)
Denver Broncos(+850)
Baltimore Ravens(+1000)
Cincinnati Bengals(+1000)
Indianapolis Colts(+1200)
Cleveland Browns(+1400)
Tennessee Titans(+1800)
Miami Dolphins(+2000)
Las Vegas Raiders(+2000)
New England Patriots(+2500)
Pittsburgh Steelers(+5000)
Jacksonville Jaguars(+6500)
New York Jets(+7500)
Houston Texans(+13000)

Ravens’ Odds Improve (+1100 -> +1000)

The Cleveland Browns slid from +900 all the way to +1400 to win the AFC this year amid some question marks at the quarterback position. As a result, a few other teams saw their AFC chances improve.

One of them is the Baltimore Ravens, who stand to benefit directly from the Browns’ potential struggles as a divisional bunkmate.

Injuries played a big role in the Ravens’ dismal 8-9 finish last season, which snapped a three-year streak of qualifying for the playoffs. Lamar Jackson is still one of the more unstoppable players in the league when he’s right, and the team’s brass has worked hard to overhaul his weaponry this offseason.

Baltimore hopes to have JK Dobbins back healthy:
The team clearly believes Rashod Bateman is ready to take the next step and take over for the departed Marquise Brown as the top target in the passing game. Mark Andrews is one of the more underrated tight ends in the sport, while a healthy secondary could go a long way toward improving Baltimore’s fortunes in 2022. The AFC North has plenty of uncertainty. The Steelers will have a new starting quarterback for the first time in 20 years. Nobody knows who’s playing QB for the Browns in Week 1, while the Bengals will suddenly face massive expectations following their unexpected conference title a season ago.

You can make a pretty easy argument that the Ravens are actually still undervalued in the NFL conference championship odds, even at their slightly improved +1000 number.

Chiefs Slide (+550 -> +600)

Patrick Mahomes’ massive contract is finally starting to catch up with the mighty Chiefs. The team had to shed some payroll this offseason, which spurred KC’s decision to trade All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill to Miami. To say Hill’s departure leaves a massive hole in Kansas City’s explosive offense would be the understatement of a lifetime.

This team will be relevant as long as Mahomes can stay healthy, but Hill’s absence is one of the main reasons the Chiefs won’t enter 2022 as the favorite out of the AFC. Andy Reid and co. hope new faces like Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will help fill the gaping void left by Hill in the deep passing game.

Nobody would be surprised to see the Chiefs get back to another AFC Championship Game, of course. KC has advanced at least that far in each of the last four years, but they’ll also have to replace Tyrann Mathieu in the secondary. Mathieu has been one of the Chiefs’ most vocal leaders during their recent run, and his on-field impact will be sorely missed, as well.

Raiders Hold Steady (+2000)

The AFC West should be fascinating. The Los Angeles Chargers (+750 NFL conference championship odds) are rising quickly, but this division is still the Chiefs’ to lose. That hasn’t stopped the Broncos and Raiders from making splashy moves this offseason, however.

Las Vegas has the worst NFL conference championship betting odds of any team in the division at +2000. That said, let’s not forget this team made the playoffs a season ago and came awfully close to knocking the eventual AFC champion Bengals out in the very first round.

All eyes will be on Davante Adams, the Raiders’ biggest offseason acquisition. Adams will team up with college QB Derek Carr in the desert, and there’s really no limit to the ceiling of this offense.

Between Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs, Carr suddenly has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal in terms of weaponry.

This team will be capable of beating anybody on a week-in, week-out basis. Living up to expectations hasn’t been the Raiders’ cup of tea over the past couple of decades, but there is certainly reason for optimism in Sin City entering the 2022-23 campaign.

Odds to Win NFC Championship

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+300)
Green Bay Packers(+450)
Los Angeles Rams(+500)
San Francisco 49ers(+750)
Dallas Cowboys(+850)
Philadelphia Eagles(+1100)
Minnesota Vikings(+2000)
Arizona Cardinals(+2000)
New Orleans Saints(+2200)
Washington Commanders(+3000)
New York Giants(+6000)
Detroit Lions(+6000)
Chicago Bears(+6500)
Carolina Panthers(+6500)
Seattle Seahawks(+7000)
Atlanta Falcons(+10000)

A Decline in Big D? (+750 -> +850)

The Cowboys have been operating like a legitimate Super Bowl contender over the past few years, but postseason success continues to elude Jerry Jones’ side. The Cowboys were beaten in upset fashion on their home field by the 49ers in last year’s NFC Wild Card Round, which means Dallas has still won just four total playoff games since winning Super Bowl 30 back in 1995.

Dallas shipped Amari Cooper to Cleveland in a trade that signals CeeDee Lamb will now step into the role as the unquestioned top target for Dak Prescott. Michael Gallup and newcomer James Washington give the Cowboys a couple of decent downfield threats, while a few minor moves were made to tweak the defense.

The Cowboys benefited from a hapless NFC East a season ago. While most expect the Eagles to take a step forward, the division still runs through North Texas. At this point, though, it’s fair to wonder if this mix of talent is truly a winning formula. The NFC was as wide-open as ever a season ago, yet the ‘Boys still weren’t ultimately able to come particularly close to seizing the opportunity.

Dallas’ NFC championship odds slid to +850 from +750 in the most recent update.

Panthers’ NFL Conference Championship Betting Odds Worsen (+6000 -> +6500)

The Panthers have had a very difficult time filling that pesky quarterback position in recent years. Since the injury-related decline of Cam Newton, Carolina has shuffled through a handful of replacements, to no avail.

Just last year:
We saw Matt Rhule and co. ship three draft picks to the Jets in exchange for Sam Darnold. Just last week, Carolina shuffled the deck again by nabbing out-of-favor QB Baker Mayfield from the Browns. You won’t often see a team’s NFL conference championship odds worsen after making such a deal, but that’s exactly what happened to the Panthers, who slid from +6000 to +6500. Mayfield isn’t a future Hall-of-Famer by any means, but he is likely an upgrade over Darnold. The former Heisman winner is still only a season removed from a 26-touchdown, 8-interception campaign during which he led the Browns to a rare playoff berth and win.

Mayfield may not have a great reputation as a lovable teammate, but I also think it’s a bit silly that the Panthers’ odds declined immediately after the trade was made.

Seahawks Still Searching for a QB (+5000 -> +7000)

With Mayfield off the board, the Seahawks may have no choice but to pick up the phone and call the 49ers about Jimmy Garoppolo. Seattle parted ways with Russell Wilson after a successful 10-year partnership just before the draft. The Seahawks got Drew Lock back in that deal from Denver.

But one would imagine an upgrade at the position is still desirable.

Beyond Lock, the only other quarterbacks on Seattle’s current depth chart are Geno Smith and Jacob Eason. Any team that starts Smith in 2022-23 is simply doing it wrong, while Eason threw all of five pass attempts as a backup last season for Indianapolis.

That said:
Contending for much of anything will be a tall order for the Seahawks this season. Not only does this team play in the vaunted NFC West that features each of last year’s NFC Championship Game participants, but also a Cardinals team that got off to that red-hot 7-0 start before faltering later in the year.

With Wilson out of town, it’s likely going to be a while before we see the Seahawks’ NFL conference championship odds improve much further.


Original AFC Championship Odds

Buffalo Bills:
Kansas City Chiefs:
Los Angeles Chargers:
Denver Broncos:
Cleveland Browns:
Baltimore Ravens:
Cincinnati Bengals:
Indianapolis Colts:
Tennessee Titans:
Miami Dolphins:
Las Vegas Raiders:
New England Patriots:
Pittsburgh Steelers:
Jacksonville Jaguars:
New York Jets:
Houston Texans:

Bills Circling the Wagons

It’s early, but oddsmakers and bettors are all rallying around the Buffalo Bills ahead of the 2022-23 campaign. The Bills haven’t appeared in a Super Bowl in nearly 30 years, yet Buffalo is the current favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 57 at +330 conference championship odds.

Why? The Bills have lost to the Chiefs in each of their last two trips to the postseason, including their infamous shootout defeat in overtime in the Divisional Round earlier this year. The Bills have been trending in the right direction over the past few years, with four playoff appearances in the last five seasons.

It’s also helpful that the Bills reside in the AFC East, which means they likely won’t face much resistance on their way to a third consecutive division title. No other team in the East has conference championship odds more favorable than Miami at a distant +1800. Buffalo is justifiably a heavy -175 favorite to win the division.

The Bills have strengthened an already-talented roster with the additions of Von Miller, Jamison Crowder, and Rodger Saffold. Buffalo also drafted ex-Georgia standout James Cook, who could step in right away and bolster the team’s relatively underwhelming rushing attack. If there was any criticism of the Bills last season, it was that the offense may have been a bit too one-dimensional.

Chiefs Always Lurking

As long as Patrick Mahomes is in Kansas City, the Chiefs are going to be in the Super Bowl mix. However, Mahomes’ massive contract is starting to hamper the front office’s ability to keep the team’s talented roster intact. Already this offseason, the Chiefs have parted ways with Tyreek Hill, Tyrann Mathieu, Eric Fisher, and Charvarius Ward.

Kansas City attempted to fill Hill’s spot with the signings of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Juju Smith-Schuster, but it’s hard to imagine any newcomer truly replacing a player as important as Hill has been to this offense over the years. Travis Kelce’s steady brilliance need not be overlooked, but Hill’s all-around impact was a huge part of what has made this the most feared offense in football over the last half-decade.

The Chiefs belong among the favorites to advance to a third Super Bowl in four years as long as Mahomes is here and healthy. However, I’m not nearly as bullish on their chances. Kansas City will have to navigate an incredibly difficult and much-improved AFC West this year, so it’s no guarantee they earn another first-round bye in next year’s playoffs.

Speaking of the AFC West…

The “other” three teams in the Chiefs’ vaunted division are all listed with NFL conference championship odds of +2000 or better. The Chargers and Broncos are actually tied for the third-best odds at +850 apiece, while the Raiders are still a relatively distant +2000 to win the AFC.

The Chiefs unquestionably got worse this offseason.
Each of these three teams improved on paper, which should be enough to put Kansas City’s chances of extending their streak to seven straight division titles in serious peril.

The Chargers have taken a page out of the Rams’ playbook this offseason. LA made a pair of splashy moves on the defensive side of the ball, trading for Khalil Mack and signing the top defender on the free-agent market in JC Jackson. The team already had no discernible weaknesses on offense around Justin Herbert. On paper, the Chargers look like the real deal.

The Broncos made arguably the biggest move of any team in the entire league this winter when they made the blockbuster trade to bring Russell Wilson to the Mile High City. Denver now has its first franchise QB since Peyton Manning retired. Now, the team can focus on making its first playoff appearance since Peyton hung ’em up, too.

Javonte Williams looked like a budding star out of the backfield last season. Wilson has plenty of weaponry at his disposal between Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick. Defensively, Denver replaced Von Miller with Randy Gregory, who should form a dynamic duo in the pass-rush with Bradley Chubb. I prefer the Chargers to the Broncos at the same NFL conference championship odds (+850), but the hype surrounding Denver is justified.

Let’s not forget the Raiders (+2000) were the only AFC West team other than the Chiefs that actually made the playoffs last season. Las Vegas came awfully close to getting past Cincinnati in the Wild Card Round, which is no small feat considering what the Bengals accomplished after that. The Raiders made a massive trade of their own to bring in Davante Adams, which means he’ll be reunited with his former college QB, Derek Carr.

The Raiders added Chandler Jones and Rock Ya-Sin to the defense, as well. That side of the ball is the bigger question mark for this team moving forward, but Las Vegas still looks a little undervalued at their current AFC championship odds.

Can Cincinnati Repeat?

It’s a little weird to see the defending AFC champions with such long NFL conference championship odds, but that’s the reality for the Bengals. Cincinnati came out of nowhere to win their first AFC title since 1988 last year, only to fall to the LA Rams in Super Bowl 56. Needless to say, Joe Burrow and co. won’t be sneaking up on anybody in 2022-23.

The Bengals have one of the most dynamic young offenses in the league around Burrow.

Ja’Marr Chase is already a superstar. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are perfect complementary pass-catchers, with Joe Mixon handling a big load in the running game. Protecting Burrow has been a tall order for this team over the past couple of years, which is why the front office invested in La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras this winter.

Three new starting offensive linemen should be exactly what the doctor ordered after Burrow was sacked a whopping 70 times last year. No other quarterback across football went down more than 48 times.

That said, it did feel as though the Bengals caught lightning in a bottle last year.

There is enough talent here to where Cincy should be able to top the AFC North again this season, but the Browns (+900) actually have the best NFL conference championship odds from any team in this division. Oddsmakers have the Ravens on par with the Bengals at +1100, too.

Best Bet to Win AFC Championship

If you want to bet on the Bills at their current +300 AFC championship odds, I won’t fight you. Buffalo’s Super Bowl window is wide-open right now, and this may be their best-ever chance to win a title.

There is still some meat on the bone with the Bills at their NFL conference championship odds.

If you’re looking for a little more value, I have my eye on the Chargers at +850. I may be guilty of drinking the offseason Kool-Aid, but this is an incredibly well-built team.

Perhaps more importantly:
The Chargers finally have a coaching staff capable of making the most of their incredible amount of on-field talent.

If you want safety, bet the Bills. If you want a bit more upside, believe in the Bolts.

Original NFC Championship Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Los Angeles Rams:
Green Bay Packers:
San Francisco 49ers:
Dallas Cowboys:
Arizona Cardinals:
Philadelphia Eagles:
Minnesota Vikings:
New Orleans Saints:
Washington Commanders:
New York Giants:
Seattle Seahawks:
Chicago Bears:
Carolina Panthers:
Atlanta Falcons:
Detroit Lions:

Guess Who’s Back

Remember those two months when Tom Brady was retired? Me neither.

In January, Brady made the shocking announcement that he was going to retire from football following a couple of successful seasons in Tampa Bay. Less than two months later, Brady made the less-shocking announcement that he would return to the Bucs for his 23rd NFL season. Immediately, the Bucs went from an NFC also-ran to the favorite to win the conference for the second time in three years.

In addition to Brady, the Buccaneers brought back Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Ryan Jensen, and Carlton Davis. Jordan Whitehead, Ronald Jones, and Alex Cappa left for greener pastures, while the jury is still out on the unsigned trio of Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, and Rob Gronkowski. Shaq Mason, Russell Gage, and Keanu Neal are among the team’s new arrivals.

With the rest of the NFC South looking incredibly weak, the Bucs should win this division with little drama.

That puts them in pole position to earn a first-round bye, as they should be able to rack up enough wins against lesser competition.Betting against Brady has not been a particularly profitable endeavor over the years.

Assuming he doesn’t suffer a dramatic age-related decline this season, it’s hard not to like the Buccaneers’ +350 NFC championship odds.

NFC Runs Through LA

While the Bucs are the early favorites, let’s not forget it was the Rams that dethroned the Buccaneers on their way to a Super Bowl title earlier this year. LA has been incredibly aggressive in a desperate attempt to build a winning roster since moving back to Southern California a handful of years ago. That bold strategy finally paid off in a big way back in February.

The defending champs have endured a few departures this winter.

Andrew Whitworth retired, which means Joe Noteboom will assume the starting left tackle role entering the new campaign. Robert Woods was traded, but the team was able to replace him with Allen Robinson via free agency. Von Miller signed with Buffalo, but the Rams subsequently stole the great Bobby Wagner from the NFC West rival Seahawks.

The NFC West has been tough over the past few years. San Francisco (+700) is among the NFC title favorites, while Arizona (+1200) isn’t too far behind. Both of those teams have some serious question marks, however, while the Seahawks appear destined for a rebuild after trading Russell Wilson to Denver. I like the Rams to win this division fairly easily next year.

This is another team with no clear weaknesses. As a result, the Rams’ +450 NFL conference championship odds look awfully tasty.

Rodgers Remains

Much like the Chiefs, the Packers will have to try and fill a gaping hole this season. While the team was ultimately able to convince Aaron Rodgers to stick around, Davante Adams is gone. Adams has been arguably the league’s most prolific receiver over the past handful of years, and his connection with Rodgers was legendary.

It’s unclear how the Packers will replace Adams immediately.

Allen Lazard is likely to start the season as the default WR1 in this offense, while veteran journeyman Sammy Watkins was plucked off the free-agency wire. Green Bay has high hopes for second-round rookie Christian Watson, who should step into a decent role from day one. At 6’5″, Watson could become a top red-zone target for Rodgers right away. Watson, who went 34th overall, was the highest pick used by the Packers on a receiver since Jordy Nelson went 36th overall back in 2008.

The Packers used their two first-rounders on defenders Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt. Green Bay has won the NFC North in each of the last three years, but this franchise is still in search of its first conference title since 2010. At this point, it’s hard not to feel as though the Packers’ repeated missed opportunities will come back to haunt them.

Anyone Else?

While the AFC is fairly deep with a few legitimate Super Bowl hopefuls, the NFC looks much more top-heavy. Beyond Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, and Green Bay, is there a single team that looks like a worthy contender?

Please Note:
The Cowboys have no shortage of talent, but they might have taken a step back this offseason. We don’t really know who’s going to be playing QB for the 49ers next year.

If Trey Lance is the guy, is he really going to lead the Niners to a Super Bowl in his first year as the starter? The Cardinals have chemistry question marks. The Eagles, Vikings, and Saints may all be a couple of years away, at best.

Best Bet to Win NFC Championship

At this point, I don’t see much of a need to look past the Buccaneers, Rams, or Packers when it comes to the NFC conference championship in 2022-23. The Bucs are the favorites, but the Rams probably should be.

After all, the Rams did just go into Tampa and beat the Bucs in last year’s playoffs, and LA’s roster doesn’t seem to have gotten any worse this offseason.

The favorite in which I’m not as confident is the Packers at +500. The relatively weak NFC does give Green Bay a puncher’s chance, but Tampa Bay and Los Angeles are both superior betting values, as of now.


The Rams at +450 have the best NFL conference championship odds of any NFC side. The Bucs (+350) would be the next choice.

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About the Author
Taylor Smith profile picture
Taylor Smith
Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

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