Belmont Stakes 2025 Odds: Is Journalism the Best Prediction?

The 157th running of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes is scheduled for Saturday, June 7, 2025, at 7:04 p.m. ET. The event is set to take place at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, NY. With Belmont Park undergoing renovations, the Belmont Stakes is expected to be back in 2027.

Known as the “Test of the Champions”, the Belmont Stakes is the longest of the three Triple Crown events. At 1 ¼ miles, the race is slightly shorter, though, than the 1 ½ mile race at Belmont Park. It’s nevertheless a huge test of endurance for the horses and jockeys.

After overcoming adversity in the stretch, Journalism managed to hunt down Gosger for a half-length win in the Preakness Stakes 2025. That was a wildly impressive display from Journalism after getting bumped heavily to get to the wire ahead of Gosger.

If the favorite had a clean trip down the stretch, I don’t believe it would have been particularly close. Journalism likely would have drawn clear of Gosger if the contact wasn’t there. It was a strong performance from jockey Umberto Rispoli, who was able to pilot Journalism through the traffic.

What bravery from Journalism and Umberto Rispoli to make the winning moves at #Preakness150. 👏 pic.twitter.com/QvbUsdUo75

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) May 18, 2025

Most importantly, as far as the Belmont Stakes is concerned, Journalism would have made it look easy in a 1 ¼ mile race. The horse had far more kick to offer in the stretch run. The effort was Journalism’s fifth in six starts, with the only loss since November 2024 in the Kentucky Derby.

Michael McCarthy’s colt has been by far the most consistent runner in this field, posting a speed figure of at least 101 in six races. The 109 in the Preakness Stakes was the second-fastest of his career. In addition to the Preakness, Journalism has a big win in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 1) on his resume.

Journalism lost the duel to Sovereignty in the Derby, but he should appreciate the extra distance at Saratoga! The top favorite is a serious contender as one of the best Belmont Stakes bets.

In a thrilling Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, Sovereignty outlasted Journalism to the wire. He sat out the Preakness to prepare for the Belmont Stakes this weekend. Unfortunately, that meant we weren’t going to have an opportunity to see a Triple Crown bid.

In any case, Mott did what was best for Sovereignty, giving the horse extra time to recoup. It was an impressive performance from the promising three-year-old colt to win by 1 ½ lengths in the rain and mud. He was coming off a second-place finish in the Florida Derby (Gr. 1), trailing Tappan Street by 1 ¼ lengths after gaining ground in the stretch.

SOVEREIGNTY RULES THE 151st KENTUCKY DERBY! 🌹 #KyDerby pic.twitter.com/WfLBrG4Zv4

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) May 3, 2025

Sovereignty had everything come together perfectly in the Kentucky Derby. It was by far the best run of his career and his first speed figure above 100. That being said, Sovereignty has been a threat in every stakes race in his career. He’s won three of four, including the Street Sense Stakes (Gr. 3) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. 2).

Since the Derby win, Sovereignty has looked fine in two workouts. He posted a time of 49.76 seconds in four furlongs and most recently was the fourth fastest out of five runners at 1:02.54 across five furlongs. If Sovereignty can build on his Derby win, he’s going back to the winner’s circle.

However, the Belmont Stakes should be tougher on Sovereignty. He’s going to be competitive and close at the wire, but I’m not running to the window to place my money on Sovereignty for my 2025 Belmont Stakes picks!

Although Baeza’s odds to win the Belmont Stakes are well behind Journalism and Sovereignty, he should be in the fray in the stretch. Despite only having one win in five starts, Baeza is consistently in the hunt. He is always hanging around and within striking distance.

Baeza finished 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd in his previous four starts. John Shirreffs’ colt won a maiden special weight on February 14 and then competed for a 2nd place effort in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 1). With a speed figure of 107, Baeza was close and just ¾ lengths off the pace from winner Journalism.

That was a run worth remembering, especially with Baeza looking to beat Journalism this time around in the Belmont Stakes. In his next trip, Baeza once again gave Journalism everything he could handle. As a longshot, Prat rode him just a neck behind Journalism at Churchill Downs.

BAEZA has arrived in Saratoga! ✈️
The half-brother to @KentuckyDerby winner MAGE and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner DORNOCH is here ahead of this year’s Belmont Stakes, presented by @NYRABets! pic.twitter.com/3pYLFTR4a3

— Belmont Stakes (@BelmontStakes) May 30, 2025

The $1.2 million colt should be in contention for the win at Saratoga. He didn’t run in the Preakness Stakes and should be fresh off to have the pace to be up there in the stretch. Baeza is a definite short-lister, and at +400, might be the best Belmont Stakes winner pick!